比特幣短期持有人SOPR目前不在分銷區

一位加密的作者已經討論了比特幣短期持有人如何提供有關何時退出的提示。

An analyst at CryptoQuant has discussed how one indicator may be able to provide hints about when it may be time to exit and enter Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant的一位分析師討論了一個指標如何提供有關何時退出和輸入比特幣的提示。

In a recent Quicktake post, the analyst talked about distributing and accumulating BTC based on the behavior of the short-term holders. The short-term holders (STHs) are the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days.

在最近的QuickTake帖子中，分析師討論了基於短期持有人的行為分發和累積BTC。短期持有人（STH）是在過去155天內購買硬幣的投資者。

These holders make up for one of the two main sides of the Bitcoin market, with the other cohort being known as the long-term holders (LTHs). The STHs, in contrast to the HODLers, tend to be quickly responsive to market events, so their metrics easily display changes.

這些持有人彌補了比特幣市場的兩個主要方面之一，另一個隊列被稱為長期持有人（LTHS）。與霍德爾（Hodlers）相比，STH傾向於快速響應市場事件，因此他們的指標很容易顯示變化。

The indicator related to the STHs that the quant shared is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This metric tells us about whether the investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss.

與STH相關的指標表明，量子共享的是用過的產出利潤率（SOPR）。該指標告訴我們投資者是出於利潤或損失而出售其硬幣。

The SOPR determines this by looking at the transaction history of each wallet taking part in a sell transaction to see what price it received its coins at. Transfers where this previous price is lower than the spot price are put in the profit sales, while those of the opposite type in the loss ones.

SOPR通過查看每個錢包的交易歷史記錄參加賣出交易來決定這一點，以查看其收到的硬幣的價格。轉移以前的價格低於現貨價格的利潤銷售中，而損失損失的價格相反。

When the value of the indicator is greater than 1, it means the holders as a whole are realizing a net amount of profit. On the other hand, it being under the mark suggests the dominance of loss-taking.

當指標的價值大於1時，這意味著持有人整體上實現了淨利潤。另一方面，它在標記之下表明造成損失的主導地位。

Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SOPR specifically for the STHs over the last few years:

現在，這是一張圖表，顯示了過去幾年專門針對STH的比特幣SOPR的趨勢：

As is visible in the above graph, the analyst has highlighted two zones for the indicator. The lower zone, shaded in green, corresponds to a notable degree of loss taking from the STHs. According to the quant, it’s usually a good time to start accumulating Bitcoin whenever the STHs are displaying this behavior.

如上圖中可見，分析師突出了兩個指標的區域。綠色陰影的下部區域對應於STH的顯著損失程度。根據量化，每當STH顯示此行為時，通常是開始積累比特幣的好時機。

Similarly, the red zone, which corresponds to profit-taking from this cohort, could represent a distribution opportunity for the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s apparent that neither of these zones perfectly captures tops and bottoms in BTC’s price, so the analyst calls for only gradual selling and buying when the indicator enters the respective regions.

同樣，與該隊列的利潤相對應的紅色區域可能代表加密貨幣的分銷機會。從圖表來看，顯然，這些區域都沒有完美地捕獲BTC價格的上衣和底部，因此分析師要求在指標進入相應地區時僅逐步銷售和購買。

During the lows earlier in the year, the STH SOPR dipped into the green zone, implying this group was showing capitulation. With the recent price rally, the metric has recovered back above the 1 mark, but so far, it hasn't yet broken into the red area.

在今年早些時候的低谷期間，STH SOPR浸入了綠色區域，這意味著該組顯示了投降。隨著最近的價格集會，該指標恢復了1大關，但到目前為止，尚未破壞紅色區域。

As such, at least going by this indicator, the time to start distributing Bitcoin may not be here yet.

因此，至少通過此指標，開始分發比特幣的時間可能還不在這裡。