比特幣將“比人們想像的要早得多”成為世界的儲備資產

在有關勺子的對話中，比特幣公司的首席執行官戴維·貝利（David Bailey）和美國總統特朗普的知己繪製了一條軌跡，他認為這將使世界上第一個從叛亂技術到主要儲備資產的加密貨幣“比人們想像的要早得多。”

David Bailey, chief executive of Bitcoin Inc. and confidant of US President Trump, mapped out a trajectory that he believes will carry the world’s first cryptocurrency from insurgent technology to primary reserve asset “much sooner than people think.”

比特幣公司（Bitcoin Inc.）首席執行官戴維·貝利（David Bailey），美國總統特朗普的知己，繪製了一條軌跡，他認為這將使世界上第一個從叛亂技術到主要儲備資產的加密貨幣“比人們想像的要早得多”。

Speaking on The Scoop with host Frank Chaparro, Bailey described a confluence of political opportunism, sovereign-scale mining, and balance-sheet securitisation that, in his view, is steadily eroding the old monetary order.

貝利在與主持人弗蘭克·查普羅（Frank Chaparro）的勺子上說，他認為政治機會主義，主權規模的採礦和資產負債表的融合，他認為這正在穩步侵蝕舊的貨幣秩序。

Bailey did not mince words about the scale of the transition. “We are on a path for Bitcoin becoming the reserve asset of the world,” he said, adding that the timetable is accelerating. The claim framed a discussion that ranged from Trump’s newly discovered “Bitcoin president” persona to Bhutan’s dependence on block-subsidy revenue and SoftBank’s entrance into the treasury-stock arbitrage game.

Bailey沒有刺激有關過渡規模的言語。他說：“我們正處於比特幣成為世界儲備資產的道路上。”他補充說，時間表正在加速。這一說法構成了討論，該討論範圍從特朗普新發現的“比特幣總統”角色到不丹對Block-Subsidy收入的依賴，以及軟銀進入國庫庫存套利遊戲的入口。

Trump's Bitcoin Pivot

特朗普的比特幣樞軸

Bailey recounted his first meeting with Trump at Trump Tower, where he and others attempted to fold Bitcoin into the president’s platform. The encounter, he said, revealed an instinctive political antenna. Trump “has this ability to sort of flip his persona […] from joking and having a good time […] to business Trump, decision time.”

貝利講述了他在特朗普大廈與特朗普的第一次會面，他和其他人試圖將比特幣折疊到總統的平台中。他說，這次相遇揭示了本能的政治天線。特朗普“具有這種能力，可以將自己的角色[…]從開玩笑和度過美好的時光轉向商業特朗普，決策時間。”

What began as a meme-driven overture has, in Bailey’s telling, evolved into a reflexive campaign plank. The candidates for president in 2024 are “all over the crypto issues now because they're a big voting bloc. It's heating up on the campaign trail because of the constituency.”

在貝利（Bailey）的講述中，最初是一個模因驅動的序曲，演變成反思性的競選木板。 2024年，總統的候選人“現在都是加密貨幣問題，因為它們是一個大型投票的集合。由於選區，它在競選過程中正在升溫。”

That pivot matters, Bailey argued, because the constituency is already electorally significant. “Crypto Americans […] are 90 million people, 80 million people,” he told Chaparro. Trump, he added, believes the cohort is “more fervent and there’s more of us than gun owners.” The implication is that Bitcoin’s ideological freight—“the politics of not wanting politics,” as Bailey put it—has begun to acquire conventional muscle at the ballot box.

貝利認為，這一點很重要，因為選區已經在選舉中意義重大。他告訴Chaparro：“加密美國人[…]有9000萬人，8000萬人。”他補充說，特朗普認為，該隊列“比槍支擁有者更加熱情，而且我們中的更多。”這意味著比特幣的意識形態貨物 - 正如貝利所說的那樣，“不想要政治的政治”已經開始在投票箱中獲得傳統的肌肉。

If politics provides the narrative, energy provides the cash flow. Bailey said sovereign mining has crossed an inflection point, estimating that “about 50 countries” now run public-private mining ventures drawing on excess generating capacity. Scale, he suggested, is no longer trivial: qualifying nations are “using like 100-plus megawatts of power,” with some “using gigawatts.”

如果政治提供敘述，能源提供現金流。貝利說，主權採礦已經跨越了一個拐點，估計“大約50個國家”現在開展公私礦業企業，利用過剩產能。他認為，規模不再是微不足道的：合格的國家“使用100多兆瓦的權力”，其中一些“使用Gigawatts”。

The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan is Bailey’s canonical example. Bitcoin mining there now accounts for “50% of the GDP of the country […] it might even be higher.” Such dependence, he argued, turns hash-rate exports into a pillar of fiscal solvency, but it also up-ends competition for commercial miners. Competing with a sovereign that “has no cost basis for its energy” compresses margins for everyone else.

不丹的喜馬拉雅王國是貝利的規範典範。現在，那裡的比特幣開採佔“該國GDP的50％[…]，甚至可能更高。”他認為，這種依賴性將哈希稅率出口變成了財政償付能力的支柱，但它也為商業礦工提供了競爭。與主權競爭“能源沒有成本基礎”會為其他所有人壓縮利潤。

Sovereign Energy Drives Bitcoin Mining

主權能源驅動比特幣採礦

Sovereign accumulation naturally follows sovereign production, Bailey contended. Once a government controls block rewards, the internal question shifts to custody, sale-versus-retention, and institutional mandate.

貝利爭辯說，主權積累自然遵循主權生產。一旦政府控制了塊獎勵，內部問題就轉移到了監護權，保留銷售和機構授權。

While only El Salvador and the Central African Republic have publicly adopted Bitcoin as legal tender or reserve asset, Bailey asserted that “sovereign money is flowing into [the] Bitcoin market already in pretty significant size,” some of it routed through sovereign-wealth funds rather than central banks.

雖然只有薩爾瓦多和中非共和國已公開採用比特幣作為法定貨幣或儲備資產，但貝利斷言：“主權資金正流入已經相當大的規模的比特幣市場，”其中一些通過主權衛生資金而不是中央銀行而不是中央銀行。

He linked that flow to an emergent national-security framing. “Is it a national-security issue for your country not to have [… ] the dominant reserve asset? Yeah, definitely.” Defence establishments, he hinted, have begun weighing whether Bitcoin strengthens or undercuts existing security doctrines, a debate he expects to surface in US congressional testimony later this year.

他將這一流程與新興的民族安全框架聯繫起來。 “對於您所在的國家來說，沒有[…]主要的儲備資產，這是國家安全問題嗎？是的，絕對是。”他暗示，國防機構已經開始權衡比特幣的加強還是削弱現有的安全學說，這是他預計今年晚些時候在美國國會證詞中浮出水面的辯論。

The Strategy Template

策略模板

At the corporate level, Michael Saylor’s Strategy remains the reference model.

在公司一級，邁克爾·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的戰略仍然是參考模型。

Bailey said Saylor’s playbook—issuing equity or debt, buying Bitcoin, letting market-capitalisation premia offset dilution—has already been copied “widely all over the place.” By his count, “we’re probably pushing 200” listed companies running variations of the strategy; he projects “many hundreds” by year-end. The supply-demand consequences are, in Bailey’s view, transparent: “There’s just not enough Bitcoin marginally to be satisfied at this price. The price is going to have to go way up.”

Bailey說，Saylor的劇本 - 發行了股票或債務，購買比特幣，讓市場資本化的Premia抵消稀釋 - 已經被“廣泛遍及到處都是”。根據他的統計，“我們可能會推出200個”上市公司的策略差異；他按年底計劃“數百個”。貝利認為，供應需求的後果是透明的：“比特幣略微不足以滿足這個價格。價格將不得不上漲。”

The mechanism is not without systemic risk. Bailey likened the corporate-Bitcoin trade to the closed-end trust structure that once governed GBTC, while emphasising a crucial distinction: operating companies can repurchase their own shares if they slip to a discount. Even so, he warned that widespread share-collateral lending could propagate leverage across equity markets, making a severe Bitcoin drawdown a potential trigger for global deleveraging.

該機制並非沒有全身風險。 Bailey將公司 - 比蒂幣貿易比作曾經管理GBTC的封閉式信託結構，同時強調了至關重要的區別：如果運營公司折扣就可以回購自己的股份。即便如此，他還是警告說，廣泛的股票貸款可能會在股票市場傳播槓桿作用，從而使嚴重的比特幣縮減成為全球倍載的潛在觸發因素。

“A bear market in Bitcoin could cause financial contagion […] and there’s really nothing anyone can do to stop it.”

“比特幣的熊市可能會引起財務傳染[…]，實際上，任何人都無法阻止它。”

Throughout the interview Bailey returned to institutional fragility. “These institutions are way weaker and way more

在整個採訪中，貝利回到了機構脆弱性。 “這些機構更弱，更