比特币将“比人们想象的要早得多”成为世界的储备资产

在有关勺子的对话中，比特币公司的首席执行官戴维·贝利（David Bailey）和美国总统特朗普的知己绘制了一条轨迹，他认为这将使世界上第一个从叛乱技术到主要储备资产的加密货币“比人们想象的要早得多。”

David Bailey, chief executive of Bitcoin Inc. and confidant of US President Trump, mapped out a trajectory that he believes will carry the world’s first cryptocurrency from insurgent technology to primary reserve asset “much sooner than people think.”

比特币公司（Bitcoin Inc.）首席执行官戴维·贝利（David Bailey），美国总统特朗普的知己，绘制了一条轨迹，他认为这将使世界上第一个从叛乱技术到主要储备资产的加密货币“比人们想象的要早得多”。

Speaking on The Scoop with host Frank Chaparro, Bailey described a confluence of political opportunism, sovereign-scale mining, and balance-sheet securitisation that, in his view, is steadily eroding the old monetary order.

贝利在与主持人弗兰克·查普罗（Frank Chaparro）的勺子上说，他认为政治机会主义，主权规模的采矿和资产负债表的融合，他认为这正在稳步侵蚀旧的货币秩序。

Bailey did not mince words about the scale of the transition. “We are on a path for Bitcoin becoming the reserve asset of the world,” he said, adding that the timetable is accelerating. The claim framed a discussion that ranged from Trump’s newly discovered “Bitcoin president” persona to Bhutan’s dependence on block-subsidy revenue and SoftBank’s entrance into the treasury-stock arbitrage game.

Bailey没有刺激有关过渡规模的言语。他说：“我们正处于比特币成为世界储备资产的道路上。”他补充说，时间表正在加速。这一说法构成了讨论，该讨论范围从特朗普新发现的“比特币总统”角色到不丹对Block-Subsidy收入的依赖，以及软银进入国库库存套利游戏的入口。

Trump's Bitcoin Pivot

特朗普的比特币枢轴

Bailey recounted his first meeting with Trump at Trump Tower, where he and others attempted to fold Bitcoin into the president’s platform. The encounter, he said, revealed an instinctive political antenna. Trump “has this ability to sort of flip his persona […] from joking and having a good time […] to business Trump, decision time.”

贝利讲述了他在特朗普大厦与特朗普的第一次会面，他和其他人试图将比特币折叠到总统的平台中。他说，这次相遇揭示了本能的政治天线。特朗普“具有这种能力，可以将自己的角色[…]从开玩笑和度过美好的时光转向商业特朗普，决策时间。”

What began as a meme-driven overture has, in Bailey’s telling, evolved into a reflexive campaign plank. The candidates for president in 2024 are “all over the crypto issues now because they're a big voting bloc. It's heating up on the campaign trail because of the constituency.”

在贝利（Bailey）的讲述中，最初是一个模因驱动的序曲，演变成反思性的竞选木板。 2024年，总统的候选人“现在都是加密货币问题，因为它们是一个大型投票的集合。由于选区，它在竞选过程中正在升温。”

That pivot matters, Bailey argued, because the constituency is already electorally significant. “Crypto Americans […] are 90 million people, 80 million people,” he told Chaparro. Trump, he added, believes the cohort is “more fervent and there’s more of us than gun owners.” The implication is that Bitcoin’s ideological freight—“the politics of not wanting politics,” as Bailey put it—has begun to acquire conventional muscle at the ballot box.

贝利认为，这一点很重要，因为选区已经在选举中意义重大。他告诉Chaparro：“加密美国人[…]有9000万人，8000万人。”他补充说，特朗普认为，该队列“比枪支拥有者更加热情，而且我们中的更多。”这意味着比特币的意识形态货物 - 正如贝利所说的那样，“不想要政治的政治”已经开始在投票箱中获得传统的肌肉。

If politics provides the narrative, energy provides the cash flow. Bailey said sovereign mining has crossed an inflection point, estimating that “about 50 countries” now run public-private mining ventures drawing on excess generating capacity. Scale, he suggested, is no longer trivial: qualifying nations are “using like 100-plus megawatts of power,” with some “using gigawatts.”

如果政治提供叙述，能源提供现金流。贝利说，主权采矿已经跨越了一个拐点，估计“大约50个国家”现在开展公私矿业企业，利用过剩产能。他认为，规模不再是微不足道的：合格的国家“使用100多兆瓦的权力”，其中一些“使用Gigawatts”。

The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan is Bailey’s canonical example. Bitcoin mining there now accounts for “50% of the GDP of the country […] it might even be higher.” Such dependence, he argued, turns hash-rate exports into a pillar of fiscal solvency, but it also up-ends competition for commercial miners. Competing with a sovereign that “has no cost basis for its energy” compresses margins for everyone else.

不丹的喜马拉雅王国是贝利的规范典范。现在，那里的比特币开采占“该国GDP的50％[…]，甚至可能更高。”他认为，这种依赖性将哈希税率出口变成了财政偿付能力的支柱，但它也为商业矿工提供了竞争。与主权竞争“能源没有成本基础”会为其他所有人压缩利润。

Sovereign Energy Drives Bitcoin Mining

主权能源驱动比特币采矿

Sovereign accumulation naturally follows sovereign production, Bailey contended. Once a government controls block rewards, the internal question shifts to custody, sale-versus-retention, and institutional mandate.

贝利争辩说，主权积累自然遵循主权生产。一旦政府控制了块奖励，内部问题就转移到了监护权，保留销售和机构授权。

While only El Salvador and the Central African Republic have publicly adopted Bitcoin as legal tender or reserve asset, Bailey asserted that “sovereign money is flowing into [the] Bitcoin market already in pretty significant size,” some of it routed through sovereign-wealth funds rather than central banks.

虽然只有萨尔瓦多和中非共和国已公开采用比特币作为法定货币或储备资产，但贝利断言：“主权资金正流入已经相当大的规模的比特币市场，”其中一些通过主权卫生资金而不是中央银行而不是中央银行。

He linked that flow to an emergent national-security framing. “Is it a national-security issue for your country not to have [… ] the dominant reserve asset? Yeah, definitely.” Defence establishments, he hinted, have begun weighing whether Bitcoin strengthens or undercuts existing security doctrines, a debate he expects to surface in US congressional testimony later this year.

他将这一流程与新兴的民族安全框架联系起来。 “对于您所在的国家来说，没有[…]主要的储备资产，这是国家安全问题吗？是的，绝对是。”他暗示，国防机构已经开始权衡比特币的加强还是削弱现有的安全学说，这是他预计今年晚些时候在美国国会证词中浮出水面的辩论。

The Strategy Template

策略模板

At the corporate level, Michael Saylor’s Strategy remains the reference model.

在公司一级，迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）的战略仍然是参考模型。

Bailey said Saylor’s playbook—issuing equity or debt, buying Bitcoin, letting market-capitalisation premia offset dilution—has already been copied “widely all over the place.” By his count, “we’re probably pushing 200” listed companies running variations of the strategy; he projects “many hundreds” by year-end. The supply-demand consequences are, in Bailey’s view, transparent: “There’s just not enough Bitcoin marginally to be satisfied at this price. The price is going to have to go way up.”

Bailey说，Saylor的剧本 - 发行了股票或债务，购买比特币，让市场资本化的Premia抵消稀释 - 已经被“广泛遍及到处都是”。根据他的统计，“我们可能会推出200个”上市公司的策略差异；他按年底计划“数百个”。贝利认为，供应需求的后果是透明的：“比特币略微不足以满足这个价格。价格将不得不上涨。”

The mechanism is not without systemic risk. Bailey likened the corporate-Bitcoin trade to the closed-end trust structure that once governed GBTC, while emphasising a crucial distinction: operating companies can repurchase their own shares if they slip to a discount. Even so, he warned that widespread share-collateral lending could propagate leverage across equity markets, making a severe Bitcoin drawdown a potential trigger for global deleveraging.

该机制并非没有全身风险。 Bailey将公司 - 比蒂币贸易比作曾经管理GBTC的封闭式信托结构，同时强调了至关重要的区别：如果运营公司折扣就可以回购自己的股份。即便如此，他还是警告说，广泛的股票贷款可能会在股票市场传播杠杆作用，从而使严重的比特币缩减成为全球倍载的潜在触发因素。

“A bear market in Bitcoin could cause financial contagion […] and there’s really nothing anyone can do to stop it.”

“比特币的熊市可能会引起财务传染[…]，实际上，任何人都无法阻止它。”

Throughout the interview Bailey returned to institutional fragility. “These institutions are way weaker and way more

在整个采访中，贝利回到了机构脆弱性。 “这些机构更弱，更