隨著比特幣的籃板為82,000美元，Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes認為，該資產可以從美國債券市場中的當前混亂中受益。

海耶斯認為，與以前的市場衝擊不同的是BTC隨股票下跌，這次可能會看到比特幣集會。

As Bitcoin (BTC) price currently trades above the $82k level, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has suggested that the asset may be set to benefit from the current chaos unfolding in the U.S. bond market.

隨著比特幣（BTC）價格目前的交易高於$ 82K的水平，Bitmex的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes建議該資產可以從美國債券市場中的當前混亂中受益。

While previous market shocks often saw BTC fall alongside stocks, this time could see Bitcoin rally, according to Hayes.

據海斯說，儘管以前的市場衝擊經常看到BTC與股票旁邊掉落，但這次可能會看到比特幣集會。

Why Does Hayes See Bond Chaos as Bullish for BTC?

為什麼海斯將邦德混亂視為BTC的看漲？

The recent 4.50% (a six-week high) rise in the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield had clearly spooked traders and investors.

最近的4.50％（六周高）在美國美國財政部的10年收益率上升，顯然使交易者和投資者驚嘆不已。

This sharp surge is the breaking point for traditional markets, and the Fed is on the clock, warned Hayes.

海耶斯警告說，這種急劇的激增是傳統市場的突破點，美聯儲正在鐘錶時鐘。

His remarks come after a day of volatility in global markets saw Treasury yields hit a six-

在全球市場上的一天波動之後，他的講話發生了六個獎項的收益率達到了六個。

week high.

周高。

While some reports pointed fingers at China selling bonds, market insiders argue the real pressure appears more structural and liquidity-driven rather than purely geopolitical.

儘管一些報導指著中國出售債券的手指，但市場內部人士認為，真正的壓力似乎更具結構性和流動性驅動，而不是純粹的地緣政治。

Specifically, as noted by analysts like Jim Bianco recently, rising yields are likely forcing big TradFi hedge funds to unwind highly leveraged “basis trades” (profiting from small differences between cash bonds and futures), similar to what USDe is in crypto.

具體來說，正如吉姆·比安科（Jim Bianco）等分析師所指出的那樣，上升的收益率可能迫使大型Tradfi對沖基金放鬆了高度利用的“基礎交易”（從現金債券和期貨之間的微小差異中獲利），類似於USDE在Crypto中。

When yields jump quickly, the bond prices held by these funds drop, triggering margin calls and forced selling – a process called “deleveraging.”

當收益率迅速上升時，這些資金持有的債券價格下跌，觸發保證金電話和強迫銷售 - 這一過程稱為“去槓桿化”。

This forced selling puts even more upward pressure on yields, creating a negative feedback loop that weighs on both stocks and crypto – at least initially.

這種強制銷售給收益率帶來了更大的向上壓力，產生了負重的反饋循環，至少在股票和加密貨幣上都重視。

However, Hayes is more interested in what comes next: Federal Reserve intervention. He believes a return to quantitative easing (QE) or even yield curve control could be necessary if the bond market seizes up.

但是，海斯對接下來的事情更感興趣：美聯儲干預。他認為，如果債券市場抓住了，則需要進行定量寬鬆（QE）甚至屈服曲線控制。

Such actions would flood the system with liquidity, creating what he previously dubbed the “Yachtzee” setup he anticipates for Bitcoin.

這樣的行動將充滿流動性，從而創造了他以前稱為比特幣預期的“ Yachtzee”設置的東西。

Hayes draws a parallel to March 2020, the last time the Fed began large-scale QE. At that point, Bitcoin was trading under $10,000 and by November 2021, BTC had surged to its previous all-time high near $69,000.

海耶斯（Hayes）與2020年3月相似，美聯儲上次開始大規模量化寬鬆。那時，比特幣的交易低於10,000美元，到2021年11月，BTC已飆升至以前的歷史高處接近69,000美元。

Now, he sees a similar setup unfolding again, and BTC might break its correlation with stocks if the Fed were to inject liquidity.

現在，他看到類似的設置再次展開，如果美聯儲注入流動性，BTC可能會破壞與股票的相關性。

What Are the Short-Term Risks to This Thesis?

本文的短期風險是什麼？

Hayes acknowledges that short-term risks remain with Bitcoin’s strong ties to equities means continued short-term volatility, especially if yields keep rising.

海耶斯承認，短期風險仍然存在比特幣與股票的牢固聯繫意味著持續的短期波動，尤其是在收益率不斷上升的情況下。

But should the Fed bring back liquidity, history suggests BTC could front-run a monetary pivot.

但是，如果美聯儲帶回流動性，歷史表明，BTC可以領先貨幣樞紐。

“Enjoy the chop till it lasts and Bitcoin might lead, not lag, the next macro move,” concludes Hayes’ message.

Hayes的信息總結說：“直到持續下去，比特幣可能會導致，而不是滯後，這是下一個宏觀移動。”