比特幣（BTC）準備從貿易戰後果中受益

Bitmex創始人Arthur Hayes認為，比特幣（BTC）將是正在進行的美國 - 中國貿易戰和更廣泛的經濟脫鉤的最大受益者之一。

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes anticipates that Bitcoin (BTC) will emerge as a key beneficiary of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and broader economic decoupling, a process he believes will ultimately push governments to print massive amounts of liquidity, historically a strong catalyst for Bitcoin price surges.

BITMEX創始人Arthur Hayes預計，比特幣（BTC）將成為正在進行的美國 - 中國貿易戰和更廣泛的經濟脫鉤的關鍵受益人，他認為這一過程將最終推動政府打印大量的流動性，從歷史上講，這是比特幣價格飆升的強大催化劑。

In an interview with Felix Jauvin on the Forward Guidance YouTube channel, Hayes elaborated on how the trade war math and economic decoupling could play out, highlighting potential implications for Bitcoin and traditional asset classes.

海耶斯在YouTube頻道的Felix Jauvin採訪時，詳細闡述了貿易戰數學和經濟脫鉤的方式，突出了對比特幣和傳統資產類別的潛在影響。

Government Revenue Strain and Forced Liquidity

政府收入壓力和強迫流動性

Highlighting the essence of the trade war, Hayes explained that U.S. President Donald Trump aims to reduce the country’s current account deficit to zero. This, however, would have a knock-on effect, forcing foreign investors to withdraw from American stocks.

海耶斯強調了貿易戰的本質，Hayes解釋說，美國總統唐納德·特朗普的目標是將該國的經常賬戶赤字減少到零。但是，這將產生連鎖反應，迫使外國投資者退出美國股票。

“Foreigners earned trillions selling goods to America and recycled that money into Treasury bonds and U.S. tech stocks. If Trump pushes to zero the current account deficit, they have to sell stocks — it’s just math,” Hayes stated.

海斯說：“外國人贏得了數万億美元出售給美國的商品，並將這筆錢回收到國庫債券和美國科技股中。如果特朗普將經常賬戶赤字推向零，他們必須出售股票，這只是數學。”

He further explained that if foreign investors sell stocks to leave the U.S. market, it will decrease the government’s revenue from capital gains taxes on those selling transactions.

他進一步解釋說，如果外國投資者出售股票以離開美國市場，這將減少政府從銷售交易的資本利得稅中的收入。

“The government will get less revenue. To compensate, they’ll print more money or increase taxes on labor. They’ll do whatever it takes to keep the government solvent,” Hayes added.

海斯補充說：“政府將獲得更少的收入。為了補償，他們將打印更多的錢或增加勞動力的稅收。他們將盡一切努力保持政府償付能力。”

This scenario, in essence, sets the stage for Bitcoin to benefit in multiple ways. As traditional financial markets face selling pressure and U.S. government revenue dwindles, policy measures will likely focus on boosting liquidity and reducing deficits, setting the scene for yet another tailwind for Bitcoin.

本質上，這種情況為比特幣以多種方式受益的舞台奠定了基礎。隨著傳統金融市場面臨銷售壓力和美國政府收入的減少，政策措施可能會著重於提高流動性和減少赤字，為比特幣的另一場風風吹響。

Bitcoin Decouples From Tech Stocks

比特幣與科技股的脫離

Discussing the broader economic decoupling, Hayes highlighted that as countries reduce interdependence and global trade diminishes, they will be forced to stimulate their own economies, leading to competitive devaluation and currency weakness.

海耶斯討論了更廣泛的經濟脫鉤，強調，隨著國家的相互依存和全球貿易的減少，他們將被迫刺激自己的經濟，從而導致競爭性貶值和貨幣弱點。

Again, this scenario bodes well for Bitcoin, which is often viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.

同樣，這種情況對於比特幣來說是很好的，通常被視為反對通貨膨脹和貨幣貶值的對沖。

“This is where Bitcoin finally decouples from tech stocks,” Hayes concluded, referring to the past correlation that saw Bitcoin's price movements tracking closely with technology equities.

海斯總結說：“這是比特幣最終將其從科技股中解脫出來的地方。

Central Banks Favor Gold Over Bitcoin

中央銀行偏愛黃金而不是比特幣

Despite Bitcoin's rising profile and role in the digital age, Hayes doesn't foresee central banks rushing to add the digital asset to their reserves.

儘管比特幣在數字時代發揮了不斷上升的作用和作用，但海斯並沒有預見中央銀行急於將數字資產添加到其儲備中。

“I don’t think they’re mentally prepared for that leap. They understand gold. They’ve been trained on gold. They’ve read history books about gold. They’re not going to put a large portion of their reserves into something that they don’t understand,” Hayes elaborated.

“我認為他們沒有為這種飛躍做好精神準備。他們了解黃金。他們已經接受了黃金的訓練。他們已經閱讀了有關黃金的歷史書。他們不會將大部分儲備儲備放入他們不了解的東西中。”

Instead, he anticipates central banks will continue to view gold as the primary safe-haven asset, while Bitcoin's growth will continue through grassroots adoption and structural macroeconomic shifts.

取而代之的是，他預計中央銀行將繼續將黃金視為主要的避風港資產，而通過基層採用和結構性宏觀經濟轉變，比特幣的增長將繼續。