比特幣的實際波動性最近已降至極低點

在 Medium 上的一篇文章中，CryptoQuant 作者 Axel Adler Jr 討論了比特幣已實現波動性的最新趨勢。

Historically, when the Bitcoin 1-week realized volatility drops below 10%, the cryptocurrency tends to experience a sharp burst of volatility.

從歷史上看，當比特幣 1 週實際波動率低於 10% 時，該加密貨幣往往會經歷劇烈的波動。

Data shows that the Bitcoin Realized Volatility metric has fallen to historically low levels. Here’s what usually happens next.

數據顯示，比特幣已實現波動率指標已降至歷史低點。接下來通常會發生以下情況。

In a recent post on CryptoQuant,链上作者Axel Adler Jr. discussed the latest trend forming in Bitcoin’s Realized Volatility.

在 CryptoQuant 最近發表的一篇文章中，鏈上作者 Axel Adler Jr. 討論了比特幣已實現波動性的最新趨勢。

As a reminder, the Realized Volatility is an indicator that tells us how volatile an asset has been based on its price returns within a specified window.

提醒一下，已實現波動率是一個指標，它告訴我們資產在指定視窗內的價格回報的波動程度。

When the value of this metric is high, it means that the asset experienced a large number of fluctuations during the period. On the other hand, a low indicator implies that the price action has been stale for the asset.

當該指標的值較高時，表示該資產在此期間經歷了較大的波動。另一方面，較低的指標意味著該資產的價格走勢已經過時。

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Here’s a chart that shows the trend in 1-week realized volatility for Bitcoin over the last several years:

下面的圖表顯示了過去幾年比特幣 1 週實際波動率的趨勢：

Bitcoin 1-Week Realized Volatility has fallen to extreme lows recently. Source: CryptoQuant

比特幣一週實際波動率最近已跌至極低點。來源：CryptoQuant

As the graph above shows, the 1-week Bitcoin Realized Volatility recently declined to very low levels of around 7%.

如上圖所示，比特幣 1 週已實現波動率最近降至 7% 左右的非常低水平。

This is so extreme that only ten other instances in the past six years have seen the metric go similarly low.

這種情況非常極端，以至於在過去六年中，只有十個其他實例的指標也出現了類似的低水準。

This indicates that the recent consolidation in the cryptocurrency has been among the tightest in its history; as for what this trend in the indicator could mean for the cryptocurrency, maybe past patterns will offer some insight.

這表明加密貨幣最近的整合是其歷史上最嚴格的之一；至於該指標的這一趨勢對加密貨幣意味著什麼，也許過去的模式會提供一些見解。

A look at the chart shows that such stale price action in the asset usually unwinds with a burst of sharp volatility.

從圖表中可以看出，資產的這種陳舊的價格走勢通常會隨著劇烈波動而消失。

The latest instance occurred right before the rally to the new all-time high (ATH).

最新的例子發生在反彈至新的歷史高點（ATH）之前。

Given this pattern, it’s possible that the recent BTC consolidation could also lead to another sharp move for the cryptocurrency.

鑑於這種模式，最近的 BTC 整合也可能導致加密貨幣的另一個大幅波動。

However, something to note is that the volatility coming out of lows in the Realized Volatility has historically gone either way, suggesting that the price move coming out of this tight range could just as well be a crash.

然而，值得注意的是，從歷史上看，從已實現波動率低點出現的波動率要么是雙向的，這表明價格走出這個狹窄區間也可能會導致崩盤。

It remains to be seen how the Bitcoin price will continue to trend, especially after the historically stale action it has seen over the past week.

比特幣價格將如何繼續走勢還有待觀察，特別是在過去一周經歷了歷史性的陳舊走勢之後。

Mt. Gox BTC Movements Impacting On-Chain Metrics

Mt. Gox BTC 走勢影響鏈上指標

In other news, as Axel pointed out in another recent post on CryptoQuant, the recent movements from the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox have caused several on-chain indicators to show false signals.

在其他新聞方面，正如 Axel 在 CryptoQuant 最近的另一篇文章中指出的那樣，破產交易所 Mt. Gox 最近的走勢導致多個鏈上指標顯示錯誤訊號。

The analyst used the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) chart as an example.

該分析師以比特幣調整後支出產出利潤率（aSOPR）圖表為例。

aSOPR tracks the net profit or loss that investors across the network realized. Since the Mt. Gox BTC had been sitting in wallets for a very long time, its movement “realized” a large amount of profit.

aSOPR 追蹤網路上投資者實現的淨利潤或虧損。由於Mt.Gox BTC已經在錢包裡待了很長時間，它的走勢「實現」了大量利潤。

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Of course, this spike in the indicator isn’t actually a sign of profit-taking, so it’s not a signal that would impact the market.

當然，該指標的飆升實際上並不是獲利了結的跡象，因此這並不是一個會影響市場的訊號。

BTC’s price has declined over the past day as its price is now down to $66,800.

BTC 的價格在過去一天有所下跌，目前已跌至 66,800 美元。