比特币的实际波动性最近已降至极低点

在 Medium 上的一篇文章中，CryptoQuant 作者 Axel Adler Jr 讨论了比特币已实现波动性的最新趋势。

Historically, when the Bitcoin 1-week realized volatility drops below 10%, the cryptocurrency tends to experience a sharp burst of volatility.

从历史上看，当比特币 1 周实际波动率低于 10% 时，该加密货币往往会经历剧烈的波动。

Data shows that the Bitcoin Realized Volatility metric has fallen to historically low levels. Here’s what usually happens next.

数据显示，比特币已实现波动率指标已降至历史低位。接下来通常会发生以下情况。

In a recent post on CryptoQuant,链上作者Axel Adler Jr. discussed the latest trend forming in Bitcoin’s Realized Volatility.

在 CryptoQuant 最近发表的一篇文章中，链上作者 Axel Adler Jr. 讨论了比特币已实现波动性的最新趋势。

As a reminder, the Realized Volatility is an indicator that tells us how volatile an asset has been based on its price returns within a specified window.

提醒一下，已实现波动率是一个指标，它告诉我们资产在指定窗口内的价格回报的波动程度。

When the value of this metric is high, it means that the asset experienced a large number of fluctuations during the period. On the other hand, a low indicator implies that the price action has been stale for the asset.

当该指标的值较高时，意味着该资产在此期间经历了较大的波动。另一方面，较低的指标意味着该资产的价格走势已经过时。

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Here’s a chart that shows the trend in 1-week realized volatility for Bitcoin over the last several years:

下面的图表显示了过去几年比特币 1 周实际波动率的趋势：

Bitcoin 1-Week Realized Volatility has fallen to extreme lows recently. Source: CryptoQuant

比特币一周实际波动率最近已跌至极低点。来源：CryptoQuant

As the graph above shows, the 1-week Bitcoin Realized Volatility recently declined to very low levels of around 7%.

如上图所示，比特币 1 周已实现波动率最近降至 7% 左右的非常低水平。

This is so extreme that only ten other instances in the past six years have seen the metric go similarly low.

这种情况非常极端，以至于在过去六年中，只有十个其他实例的指标也出现了类似的低水平。

This indicates that the recent consolidation in the cryptocurrency has been among the tightest in its history; as for what this trend in the indicator could mean for the cryptocurrency, maybe past patterns will offer some insight.

这表明加密货币最近的整合是其历史上最严格的之一；至于该指标的这一趋势对加密货币意味着什么，也许过去的模式会提供一些见解。

A look at the chart shows that such stale price action in the asset usually unwinds with a burst of sharp volatility.

从图表中可以看出，资产的这种陈旧的价格走势通常会随着剧烈波动而消失。

The latest instance occurred right before the rally to the new all-time high (ATH).

最新的例子发生在反弹至新的历史高点（ATH）之前。

Given this pattern, it’s possible that the recent BTC consolidation could also lead to another sharp move for the cryptocurrency.

鉴于这种模式，最近的 BTC 整合也可能导致加密货币的另一次大幅波动。

However, something to note is that the volatility coming out of lows in the Realized Volatility has historically gone either way, suggesting that the price move coming out of this tight range could just as well be a crash.

然而，值得注意的是，从历史上看，从已实现波动率低点出现的波动率要么是双向的，这表明价格走出这个狭窄区间也可能会导致崩盘。

It remains to be seen how the Bitcoin price will continue to trend, especially after the historically stale action it has seen over the past week.

比特币价格将如何继续走势还有待观察，特别是在过去一周经历了历史性的陈旧走势之后。

Mt. Gox BTC Movements Impacting On-Chain Metrics

Mt. Gox BTC 走势影响链上指标

In other news, as Axel pointed out in another recent post on CryptoQuant, the recent movements from the bankrupt exchange Mt. Gox have caused several on-chain indicators to show false signals.

在其他新闻方面，正如 Axel 在 CryptoQuant 最近的另一篇文章中指出的那样，破产交易所 Mt. Gox 最近的走势导致多个链上指标显示错误信号。

The analyst used the Bitcoin Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) chart as an example.

该分析师以比特币调整后支出产出利润率（aSOPR）图表为例。

aSOPR tracks the net profit or loss that investors across the network realized. Since the Mt. Gox BTC had been sitting in wallets for a very long time, its movement “realized” a large amount of profit.

aSOPR 跟踪网络上投资者实现的净利润或亏损。由于Mt.Gox BTC已经在钱包​​里呆了很长时间，它的走势“实现”了大量利润。

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Of course, this spike in the indicator isn’t actually a sign of profit-taking, so it’s not a signal that would impact the market.

当然，该指标的飙升实际上并不是获利了结的迹象，因此这并不是一个会影响市场的信号。

BTC’s price has declined over the past day as its price is now down to $66,800.

BTC 的价格在过去一天有所下跌，目前已跌至 66,800 美元。