比特幣價格目標：以黃金為代表表明 BTC 到 2025 年底將穩定在 20 萬美元左右

渣打銀行表示，如果交易所交易基金 (ETF) 持續快速流入，比特幣到 2025 年可能會「衝高」至 25 萬美元（334,411 美元）左右的高位

Standard Chartered Bank’s head of FX research, west and digital assets research Geoff Kendrick has raised his Bitcoin price forecast for end-2025 to around US$200,000 from US$150,000 previously.

渣打銀行外匯研究、西方和數位資產研究主管 Geoff Kendrick 將 2025 年底的比特幣價格預測從先前的 15 萬美元上調至 20 萬美元左右。

The new projection is based on using gold as a proxy for the cryptocurrency to assess where Bitcoin prices might go based on exchange-traded flows.

新的預測是基於使用黃金作為加密貨幣的代理，以根據交易所交易流量評估比特幣價格的走向。

Standard Chartered analysts have used three separate gold-based measures in their assessment of Bitcoin prices.

渣打銀行分析師在評估比特幣價格時使用了三種獨立的基於黃金的指標。

The bank’s analysts believe that both comparisons are still relevant and provide insights into how the Bitcoin price might develop.

該銀行的分析師認為，這兩種比較仍然具有相關性，並為比特幣價格可能如何發展提供了見解。

Earlier for gold and more recently for Bitcoin, exchange-traded products (ETPs) and ETFs allowed a new set of investors to gain access to a market that was previously underinvested, Kendrick says.

肯德里克表示，早期的黃金和最近的比特幣，交易所交易產品 (ETP) 和 ETF 允許一群新的投資者進入先前投資不足的市場。

In gold’s case, it took several years for the ETP market to mature, during which time the gold price rose 4.3x.

就黃金而言，ETP市場花了幾年時間才成熟，在此期間金價上漲了4.3倍。

In the instance of Bitcoin, Kendrick predicts that the ETF market will mature much faster — in one to two years — but result in the same price multiple, forming the basis for his estimated price level of US$200,000 at end-2025.

以比特幣為例，Kendrick 預測 ETF 市場將在一到兩年內成熟得更快，但會產生相同的價格倍數，這構成了他估計的 2025 年底 20 萬美元價格水平的基礎。

Secondly, using gold in the context of an optimised gold-Bitcoin two-asset portfolio also suggests a level around US$190,000, based on an optimised 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin portfolio at current gold prices.

其次，在優化的黃金-比特幣雙資產投資組合中使用黃金也表明，基於以當前金價計算的優化的 80% 黃金和 20% 比特幣投資組合，其水平約為 190,000 美元。

Finally, a linear extrapolation of the correlation between ETF inflows and the Bitcoin price suggests a Bitcoin price level around US$250,000 assuming that total ETF inflows, until the market matures, are around Kendrick’s mid-point estimate of US$75 billion.

最後，對ETF 流入量與比特幣價格之間相關性的線性推斷表明，假設在市場成熟之前ETF 流入總量約為Kendrick 估計的750 億美元的中點，則比特幣價格水平約為25 萬美元。

“This suggests to us that US$200,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC, in line with our previous price estimate, and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time,” he says.

「這對我們來說，20 萬美元是 BTC 2025 年底的『正確』價格水平，與我們之前的價格估計一致，並且很可能是當時橫盤交易區間的新中點，」他說。

“However, if ETF inflows reach our mid-point estimate of US$75 billion, and/or if reserve managers buy BTC, we see a good chance of an overshoot to the US$250,000 level at some stage in 2025,” adds the analyst.

「然而，如果 ETF 流入量達到我們估計的 750 億美元的中點，和/或如果儲備經理購買 BTC，我們認為 2025 年某個階段很有可能突破 25 萬美元的水平，」分析師補充道。

For end-2024, Kendrick has raised his long-held price estimate to the US$150,000 level from US$100,000 given the more rapid pass-through from ETF inflows to the BTC price to date.

鑑於迄今為止從 ETF 流入到 BTC 價格的速度更快，肯德里克將其長期持有的價格預估從 10 萬美元上調至 15 萬美元。

See Also:Binance CEO Teng sees Bitcoin topping US$80,000 on ETF flowsBitcoin retreats after setting fifth record high in seven daysAll that glitters is not crypto

另請參閱：幣安首席執行官滕認為比特幣在 ETF 流量上突破 80,000 美元比特幣在 7 天內創下第五個歷史新高後回落所有閃光的都不是加密貨幣