比特币价格目标：以黄金为代表表明 BTC 到 2025 年底将稳定在 20 万美元左右

渣打银行表示，如果交易所交易基金 (ETF) 持续快速流入，比特币到 2025 年可能会“冲高”至 250,000 美元（334,411 美元）左右的高位

Standard Chartered Bank’s head of FX research, west and digital assets research Geoff Kendrick has raised his Bitcoin price forecast for end-2025 to around US$200,000 from US$150,000 previously.

渣打银行外汇研究、西方和数字资产研究主管 Geoff Kendrick 将 2025 年底的比特币价格预测从之前的 15 万美元上调至 20 万美元左右。

The new projection is based on using gold as a proxy for the cryptocurrency to assess where Bitcoin prices might go based on exchange-traded flows.

新的预测基于使用黄金作为加密货币的代理，以根据交易所交易流量评估比特币价格的走向。

Standard Chartered analysts have used three separate gold-based measures in their assessment of Bitcoin prices.

渣打银行分析师在评估比特币价格时使用了三种独立的基于黄金的指标。

The bank’s analysts believe that both comparisons are still relevant and provide insights into how the Bitcoin price might develop.

该银行的分析师认为，这两种比较仍然具有相关性，并为比特币价格可能如何发展提供了见解。

Earlier for gold and more recently for Bitcoin, exchange-traded products (ETPs) and ETFs allowed a new set of investors to gain access to a market that was previously underinvested, Kendrick says.

肯德里克表示，早些时候的黄金和最近的比特币，交易所交易产品 (ETP) 和 ETF 允许一批新的投资者进入之前投资不足的市场。

In gold’s case, it took several years for the ETP market to mature, during which time the gold price rose 4.3x.

就黄金而言，ETP市场花了几年时间才成熟，在此期间金价上涨了4.3倍。

In the instance of Bitcoin, Kendrick predicts that the ETF market will mature much faster — in one to two years — but result in the same price multiple, forming the basis for his estimated price level of US$200,000 at end-2025.

以比特币为例，Kendrick 预测 ETF 市场将在一到两年内成熟得更快，但会产生相同的价格倍数，这构成了他估计的 2025 年底 200,000 美元价格水平的基础。

Secondly, using gold in the context of an optimised gold-Bitcoin two-asset portfolio also suggests a level around US$190,000, based on an optimised 80% gold and 20% Bitcoin portfolio at current gold prices.

其次，在优化的黄金-比特币双资产投资组合中使用黄金也表明，基于以当前金价计算的优化的 80% 黄金和 20% 比特币投资组合，其水平约为 190,000 美元。

Finally, a linear extrapolation of the correlation between ETF inflows and the Bitcoin price suggests a Bitcoin price level around US$250,000 assuming that total ETF inflows, until the market matures, are around Kendrick’s mid-point estimate of US$75 billion.

最后，对 ETF 流入量与比特币价格之间相关性的线性推断表明，假设在市场成熟之前 ETF 流入总量约为 Kendrick 估计的 750 亿美元的中点，则比特币价格水平约为 25 万美元。

“This suggests to us that US$200,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC, in line with our previous price estimate, and that it is likely to be the new midpoint for a sideways trading range at that time,” he says.

“这对我们来说，200,000 美元是 BTC 2025 年底的‘正确’价格水平，与我们之前的价格估计一致，并且很可能是当时横盘交易区间的新中点，”他说。

“However, if ETF inflows reach our mid-point estimate of US$75 billion, and/or if reserve managers buy BTC, we see a good chance of an overshoot to the US$250,000 level at some stage in 2025,” adds the analyst.

“然而，如果 ETF 流入量达到我们估计的 750 亿美元的中点，和/或如果储备经理购买 BTC，我们认为 2025 年某个阶段很有可能突破 25 万美元的水平，”分析师补充道。

For end-2024, Kendrick has raised his long-held price estimate to the US$150,000 level from US$100,000 given the more rapid pass-through from ETF inflows to the BTC price to date.

鉴于迄今为止从 ETF 流入到 BTC 价格的速度更快，肯德里克将其长期持有的价格预估从 10 万美元上调至 15 万美元。

See Also:Binance CEO Teng sees Bitcoin topping US$80,000 on ETF flowsBitcoin retreats after setting fifth record high in seven daysAll that glitters is not crypto

另请参阅：币安首席执行官滕认为比特币在 ETF 流量上突破 80,000 美元比特币在 7 天内创下第五个历史新高后回落所有闪光的都不是加密货币