分析比特幣的價格趨勢，開放興趣和清算耗盡，以預測加密市場中的下一個重大行動。

Bitcoin Price, Open Interest, and Liquidation Exhaustion: What's Next?

比特幣價格，開放興趣和清算精疲力盡：下一步是什麼？

Bitcoin's been dancing around its all-time highs, and everyone's wondering if it's about to moon or faceplant. Let's dive into what open interest and liquidation exhaustion are telling us about the future of BTC.

比特幣一直在其歷史最高點上跳舞，每個人都想知道它是否即將到達月亮或麵包板。讓我們深入了解哪些開放興趣和清算疲憊正在告訴我們BTC的未來。

OI Divergence: A Bullish Sign?

差異：看漲標誌？

Onchain data is showing a divergence between Bitcoin's price and Binance open interest (OI). Basically, while Bitcoin got super close to its all-time high in late May, the OI on Binance didn't quite reach its previous peak. This divergence suggests that the derivatives market is deleveraging, potentially setting the stage for a bullish move. According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, this reflects “cleansing of latecomers chasing the rally,” which coincides with the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

OnChain數據顯示了比特幣的價格和二元開放興趣（OI）之間的差異。基本上，雖然比特幣在5月下旬的歷史最高水平都非常接近，但Binance的OI並沒有完全達到其先前的高峰。這種差異表明，衍生品市場是去槓桿化的，有可能為看漲的舉動奠定基礎。據加密分析師Amr Taha稱，這反映了“追逐拉力賽的後來者的清潔”，這與美聯儲決定不變的利率離開的決定相吻合。

Liquidation Exhaustion: Clearing the Path

清算精疲力盡：清除路徑

The Binance Liquidation Delta chart highlights a bunch of long positions getting liquidated around $104,000 back on June 13. This “liquidation exhaustion” could mean that the market has shaken out the weak hands, making it easier for Bitcoin to push higher.

Binance清算Delta圖表突出了一堆長的位置，在6月13日的$ 104,000左右被清算。這種“清算耗盡”可能意味著市場已經震驚了弱的手，使比特幣更容易推高更高。

The $108,000 Resistance

108,000美元的電阻

Bitcoin needs to break through a key resistance zone at $108,000 to trigger an upward movement. According to MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe, Bitcoin trending back upward is “a great sign.” If BTC bulls can conquer $108,000, we could be looking at a significant rally.

比特幣需要以108,000美元的價格突破關鍵阻力區，以觸發向上的運動。根據MN Capital創始人Michael Van de Poppe的說法，比特幣趨向上升是“一個很好的信號”。如果BTC公牛可以征服108,000美元，我們可能會考慮一個重大的集會。

The 200-Week Moving Average: A Long-Term Perspective

200週的移動平均線：長期視角

Looking at the bigger picture, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) is a key indicator. Historically, when the 200WMA surpasses its prior all-time high level, Bitcoin has either peaked or come extremely close to peaking in price. Projections suggest this crossover could occur around May or June 2026. Also, Diminishing Peaks, plotting a trendline across the current cycle’s Mayer Multiple highs implies a potential peak multiple of around 3.2 for this cycle. Applying that multiple to a projected 200WMA level of ~$70,000 by mid-2026 yields a theoretical price peak of approximately $220,000.

從更大的情況下，200週的移動平均線（200WMA）是關鍵指標。從歷史上看，當200WMA超過其先前的高水平時，比特幣要么達到頂峰，要么非常接近價格的峰值。預測表明，這種交叉可能發生在2026年5月或6月左右。此外，峰值降低，繪製了當前週期的Mayer多個高點上的趨勢線，這意味著對於本週期，潛在的峰值大約為3.2。在2026年中期，將該倍數應用於預計的200WMA水平約70,000美元，理論上的價格峰值約為220,000美元。

My Take: Cautious Optimism

我的看法：謹慎的樂觀

While the technical indicators and onchain data suggest potential upside, it's important to stay grounded. The crypto market is known for its volatility, and anything can happen. However, the combination of OI divergence, liquidation exhaustion, and the potential breakout above $108,000 makes a compelling case for a bullish outlook. The 200WMA analysis also hints at a significant peak in 2026. I think we could see Bitcoin test new highs soon, but always do your own research and manage your risk!

儘管技術指標和OnChain數據表明潛在的上行空間，但保持紮根很重要。加密市場以波動性而聞名，任何事情都可能發生。但是，OI發散，清算疲憊和超過108,000美元以上的潛在突破的結合是看漲前景的引人注目的案例。 200WMA分析也暗示了2026年的一個顯著峰值。我認為我們可以很快看到比特幣測試新高點，但始終進行您自己的研究並管理風險！

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, is Bitcoin about to skyrocket? Maybe. Will it crash and burn? Also maybe. The market is as unpredictable as a New York City subway delay. But with a keen eye on open interest, liquidation levels, and those all-important moving averages, you'll be in a better position to navigate the crypto chaos. Happy trading, and remember, don't bet the farm!

那麼，比特幣會飆升嗎？或許。會崩潰並燃燒嗎？也許也是。市場與紐約市的地鐵延遲一樣不可預測。但是，由於敏銳的關注開放興趣，清算水平以及最重要的移動平均值，您將處於更好的位置來駕駛加密貨幣混亂。愉快的交易，請記住，不要敢打賭農場！