分析比特币的价格趋势，开放兴趣和清算耗尽，以预测加密市场中的下一个重大行动。

Bitcoin Price, Open Interest, and Liquidation Exhaustion: What's Next?

比特币价格，开放兴趣和清算精疲力尽：下一步是什么？

Bitcoin's been dancing around its all-time highs, and everyone's wondering if it's about to moon or faceplant. Let's dive into what open interest and liquidation exhaustion are telling us about the future of BTC.

比特币一直在其历史最高点上跳舞，每个人都想知道它是否即将到达月亮或面包板。让我们深入了解哪些开放兴趣和清算疲惫正在告诉我们BTC的未来。

OI Divergence: A Bullish Sign?

差异：看涨标志？

Onchain data is showing a divergence between Bitcoin's price and Binance open interest (OI). Basically, while Bitcoin got super close to its all-time high in late May, the OI on Binance didn't quite reach its previous peak. This divergence suggests that the derivatives market is deleveraging, potentially setting the stage for a bullish move. According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, this reflects “cleansing of latecomers chasing the rally,” which coincides with the Fed’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged.

OnChain数据显示了比特币的价格和二元开放兴趣（OI）之间的差异。基本上，虽然比特币在5月下旬的历史最高水平都非常接近，但Binance的OI并没有完全达到其先前的高峰。这种差异表明，衍生品市场是去杠杆化的，有可能为看涨的举动奠定基础。据加密分析师Amr Taha称，这反映了“追逐拉力赛的后来者的清洁”，这与美联储决定不变的利率离开的决定相吻合。

Liquidation Exhaustion: Clearing the Path

清算精疲力尽：清除路径

The Binance Liquidation Delta chart highlights a bunch of long positions getting liquidated around $104,000 back on June 13. This “liquidation exhaustion” could mean that the market has shaken out the weak hands, making it easier for Bitcoin to push higher.

Binance清算Delta图表突出了一堆长的位置，在6月13日的$ 104,000左右被清算。这种“清算耗尽”可能意味着市场已经震惊了弱的手，使比特币更容易推高更高。

The $108,000 Resistance

108,000美元的电阻

Bitcoin needs to break through a key resistance zone at $108,000 to trigger an upward movement. According to MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe, Bitcoin trending back upward is “a great sign.” If BTC bulls can conquer $108,000, we could be looking at a significant rally.

比特币需要以108,000美元的价格突破关键阻力区，以触发向上的运动。根据MN Capital创始人Michael Van de Poppe的说法，比特币趋向上升是“一个很好的信号”。如果BTC公牛可以征服108,000美元，我们可能会考虑一个重大的集会。

The 200-Week Moving Average: A Long-Term Perspective

200周的移动平均线：长期视角

Looking at the bigger picture, the 200-week moving average (200WMA) is a key indicator. Historically, when the 200WMA surpasses its prior all-time high level, Bitcoin has either peaked or come extremely close to peaking in price. Projections suggest this crossover could occur around May or June 2026. Also, Diminishing Peaks, plotting a trendline across the current cycle’s Mayer Multiple highs implies a potential peak multiple of around 3.2 for this cycle. Applying that multiple to a projected 200WMA level of ~$70,000 by mid-2026 yields a theoretical price peak of approximately $220,000.

从更大的情况下，200周的移动平均线（200WMA）是关键指标。从历史上看，当200WMA超过其先前的高水平时，比特币要么达到顶峰，要么非常接近价格的峰值。预测表明，这种交叉可能发生在2026年5月或6月左右。此外，峰值降低，绘制了当前周期的Mayer多个高点上的趋势线，这意味着对于本周期，潜在的峰值大约为3.2。在2026年中期，将该倍数应用于预计的200WMA水平约70,000美元，理论上的价格峰值约为220,000美元。

My Take: Cautious Optimism

我的看法：谨慎的乐观

While the technical indicators and onchain data suggest potential upside, it's important to stay grounded. The crypto market is known for its volatility, and anything can happen. However, the combination of OI divergence, liquidation exhaustion, and the potential breakout above $108,000 makes a compelling case for a bullish outlook. The 200WMA analysis also hints at a significant peak in 2026. I think we could see Bitcoin test new highs soon, but always do your own research and manage your risk!

尽管技术指标和OnChain数据表明潜在的上行空间，但保持扎根很重要。加密市场以波动性而闻名，任何事情都可能发生。但是，OI发散，清算疲惫和超过108,000美元以上的潜在突破的结合是看涨前景的引人注目的案例。 200WMA分析也暗示了2026年的一个显着峰值。我认为我们可以很快看到比特币测试新高点，但始终进行您自己的研究并管理风险！

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, is Bitcoin about to skyrocket? Maybe. Will it crash and burn? Also maybe. The market is as unpredictable as a New York City subway delay. But with a keen eye on open interest, liquidation levels, and those all-important moving averages, you'll be in a better position to navigate the crypto chaos. Happy trading, and remember, don't bet the farm!

那么，比特币会飙升吗？或许。会崩溃并燃烧吗？也许也是。市场与纽约市的地铁延迟一样不可预测。但是，由于敏锐的关注开放兴趣，清算水平以及最重要的移动平均值，您将处于更好的位置来驾驶加密货币混乱。愉快的交易，请记住，不要敢打赌农场！