Arthur Hayes 表示，在“變相”貨幣寬鬆政策的推動下，比特幣有望飆升 20 萬美元

Arthur Hayes 預測比特幣可能很快就會達到 20 萬美元，並稱美聯儲的“儲備管理購買”是一種新形式的量化寬鬆，可刺激流動性。

In a bold prediction that's turning heads in the crypto world, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has forecast that Bitcoin could skyrocket to a staggering $200,000 within the next three months. Hayes attributes this bullish outlook to what he describes as a fresh wave of "disguised monetary easing" orchestrated by the Federal Reserve, which he believes is setting the stage for another powerful liquidity-driven rally.

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 做出了一項引起加密世界關注的大膽預測，他預測比特幣可能在未來三個月內飆升至驚人的 20 萬美元。海耶斯將這種看漲前景歸因於他所描述的美聯儲精心策劃的新一波“變相貨幣寬鬆”浪潮，他認為這正在為另一場由流動性驅動的強勁反彈奠定基礎。

The Fed's 'Love Language': RMP as QE

美聯儲的“愛的語言”：RMP即量化寬鬆

In a recent essay, Hayes dissected the Federal Reserve's evolving monetary policy, coining the term "love language" to euphemistically describe large-scale money creation. The latest manifestation of this, according to Hayes, is the Federal Reserve's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Hayes argues that RMP is functionally equivalent to quantitative easing (QE), despite official insistence to the contrary. While traditional QE involved purchasing longer-dated bonds, RMP focuses on Treasury bills, primarily sourced from money market funds. Hayes posits that this distinction is merely cosmetic, as both actions involve the Fed creating money out of thin air, enabling the Treasury to issue more debt and fund spending, which ultimately inflates financial assets and the real economy.

在最近的一篇文章中，海耶斯剖析了美聯儲不斷演變的貨幣政策，創造了“愛的語言”一詞來委婉地描述大規模的貨幣創造。海耶斯表示，這種情況的最新表現是美聯儲的儲備管理購買（RMP）。海耶斯認為，儘管官方堅持相反，但 RMP 在功能上等同於量化寬鬆 (QE)。傳統的量化寬鬆涉及購買期限較長的債券，而零售管理政策則側重於國庫券，主要來自貨幣市場基金。海耶斯認為，這種區別只是表面上的，因為這兩項行動都涉及美聯儲憑空創造貨幣，使財政部能夠發行更多債務和基金支出，最終導致金融資產和實體經濟膨脹。

Historical Parallels and Bitcoin's Trajectory

歷史相似之處和比特幣的軌跡

Hayes draws a parallel to the post-2009 era, when QE significantly boosted assets like stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. He believes a similar scenario is unfolding now. While Bitcoin has initially lagged behind gold since the inception of RMP, Hayes views this as a temporary divergence. His outlook suggests Bitcoin will likely consolidate between $80,000 and $100,000 until the market fully grasps that RMP is, in effect, QE. Once this realization takes hold, he anticipates Bitcoin will rapidly surpass its previous highs near $124,000 and then accelerate towards the $200,000 mark, potentially by March.

Hayes 與 2009 年後時代進行了類比，當時量化寬鬆顯著提振了股票、黃金和比特幣等資產。他認為類似的情況現在正在上演。儘管自 RMP 成立以來，比特幣最初落後於黃金，但 Hayes 認為這是暫時的背離。他的前景表明，在市場完全認識到 RMP 實際上是量化寬鬆之前，比特幣可能會在 80,000 美元至 100,000 美元之間盤整。一旦這種認識得到落實，他預計比特幣將迅速超越之前接近 124,000 美元的高點，然後加速邁向 200,000 美元大關，可能到 3 月份。

DeFi Diversification and Future Outlook

DeFi多元化及未來展望

Beyond his Bitcoin price predictions, Hayes has also been actively diversifying his portfolio into decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. Recent reports indicate he has invested significantly in Lido DAO (LDO) and Pendle (PENDLE), even selling a portion of his Ethereum holdings to fund these acquisitions. This strategic shift underscores his growing confidence in DeFi protocols, which he believes will benefit from improving market liquidity. Hayes's focus on high-quality DeFi tokens signals a belief in their long-term potential and specialized use cases.

除了比特幣價格預測之外，海耶斯還積極將其投資組合多元化，轉向去中心化金融（DeFi）代幣。最近的報告表明，他對 Lido DAO (LDO) 和 Pendle (PENDLE) 進行了大量投資，甚至出售了部分以太坊資產來為這些收購提供資金。這一戰略轉變凸顯了他對 DeFi 協議日益增長的信心，他認為 DeFi 協議將受益於市場流動性的改善。 Hayes 對高質量 DeFi 代幣的關注表明了對其長期潛力和專業用例的信心。

So, while the markets continue to churn, keep an eye on Bitcoin. With Hayes's analysis pointing towards a liquidity-fueled surge, and his own strategic moves into DeFi, it seems the crypto space is in for an exciting ride. Let's hope for some fireworks!

因此，在市場繼續動蕩的同時，請密切關注比特幣。海耶斯的分析表明流動性會推動流動性激增，而且他自己也採取了進軍 DeFi 的戰略，加密貨幣領域似乎正迎來一段激動人心的旅程。讓我們一起期待煙花吧！