Arthur Hayes 表示，在“变相”货币宽松政策的推动下，比特币有望飙升 20 万美元

Arthur Hayes 预测比特币可能很快就会达到 20 万美元，并称美联储的“储备管理购买”是一种新形式的量化宽松，可刺激流动性。

In a bold prediction that's turning heads in the crypto world, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has forecast that Bitcoin could skyrocket to a staggering $200,000 within the next three months. Hayes attributes this bullish outlook to what he describes as a fresh wave of "disguised monetary easing" orchestrated by the Federal Reserve, which he believes is setting the stage for another powerful liquidity-driven rally.

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 做出了一项引起加密世界关注的大胆预测，他预测比特币可能在未来三个月内飙升至惊人的 20 万美元。海耶斯将这种看涨前景归因于他所描述的美联储精心策划的新一波“变相货币宽松”浪潮，他认为这正在为另一场由流动性驱动的强劲反弹奠定基础。

The Fed's 'Love Language': RMP as QE

美联储的“爱的语言”：RMP即量化宽松

In a recent essay, Hayes dissected the Federal Reserve's evolving monetary policy, coining the term "love language" to euphemistically describe large-scale money creation. The latest manifestation of this, according to Hayes, is the Federal Reserve's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP). Hayes argues that RMP is functionally equivalent to quantitative easing (QE), despite official insistence to the contrary. While traditional QE involved purchasing longer-dated bonds, RMP focuses on Treasury bills, primarily sourced from money market funds. Hayes posits that this distinction is merely cosmetic, as both actions involve the Fed creating money out of thin air, enabling the Treasury to issue more debt and fund spending, which ultimately inflates financial assets and the real economy.

在最近的一篇文章中，海耶斯剖析了美联储不断演变的货币政策，创造了“爱的语言”一词来委婉地描述大规模的货币创造。海耶斯表示，这种情况的最新表现是美联储的储备管理购买（RMP）。海耶斯认为，尽管官方坚持相反，但 RMP 在功能上等同于量化宽松 (QE)。传统的量化宽松涉及购买期限较长的债券，而零售管理政策则侧重于国库券，主要来自货币市场基金。海耶斯认为，这种区别只是表面上的，因为这两项行动都涉及美联储凭空创造货币，使财政部能够发行更多债务和基金支出，最终导致金融资产和实体经济膨胀。

Historical Parallels and Bitcoin's Trajectory

历史相似之处和比特币的轨迹

Hayes draws a parallel to the post-2009 era, when QE significantly boosted assets like stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. He believes a similar scenario is unfolding now. While Bitcoin has initially lagged behind gold since the inception of RMP, Hayes views this as a temporary divergence. His outlook suggests Bitcoin will likely consolidate between $80,000 and $100,000 until the market fully grasps that RMP is, in effect, QE. Once this realization takes hold, he anticipates Bitcoin will rapidly surpass its previous highs near $124,000 and then accelerate towards the $200,000 mark, potentially by March.

Hayes 与 2009 年后时代进行了类比，当时量化宽松显着提振了股票、黄金和比特币等资产。他认为类似的情况现在正在上演。尽管自 RMP 成立以来，比特币最初落后于黄金，但 Hayes 认为这是暂时的背离。他的前景表明，在市场完全认识到 RMP 实际上是量化宽松之前，比特币可能会在 80,000 美元至 100,000 美元之间盘整。一旦这种认识得到落实，他预计比特币将迅速超越之前接近 124,000 美元的高点，然后加速迈向 200,000 美元大关，可能到 3 月份。

DeFi Diversification and Future Outlook

DeFi多元化及未来展望

Beyond his Bitcoin price predictions, Hayes has also been actively diversifying his portfolio into decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens. Recent reports indicate he has invested significantly in Lido DAO (LDO) and Pendle (PENDLE), even selling a portion of his Ethereum holdings to fund these acquisitions. This strategic shift underscores his growing confidence in DeFi protocols, which he believes will benefit from improving market liquidity. Hayes's focus on high-quality DeFi tokens signals a belief in their long-term potential and specialized use cases.

除了比特币价格预测之外，海耶斯还积极将其投资组合多元化，转向去中心化金融（DeFi）代币。最近的报告表明，他对 Lido DAO (LDO) 和 Pendle (PENDLE) 进行了大量投资，甚至出售了部分以太坊资产来为这些收购提供资金。这一战略转变凸显了他对 DeFi 协议日益增长的信心，他认为 DeFi 协议将受益于市场流动性的改善。 Hayes 对高质量 DeFi 代币的关注表明了对其长期潜力和专业用例的信心。

So, while the markets continue to churn, keep an eye on Bitcoin. With Hayes's analysis pointing towards a liquidity-fueled surge, and his own strategic moves into DeFi, it seems the crypto space is in for an exciting ride. Let's hope for some fireworks!

因此，在市场继续动荡的同时，请密切关注比特币。海耶斯的分析表明流动性会推动流动性激增，而且他自己也采取了进军 DeFi 的战略，加密货币领域似乎正迎来一段激动人心的旅程。让我们一起期待烟花吧！