比特幣與英偉達：哪個是更好的投資？

rth，Motley Fool 貢獻者

Nvidia (NVDA) stock has been on a tear lately, and it's now one of the most valuable companies in the world. But don't forget about Bitcoin (BTC), which has just as much -- and possibly more -- future upside potential than Nvidia.

英偉達（NVDA）的股票最近一直在上漲，它現在是世界上最有價值的公司之一。但不要忘記比特幣（BTC），它的未來上漲潛力與英偉達一樣大，甚至可能更大。

And, while it might seem counterintuitive, an investment in Bitcoin may actually be less risky than many people think.

而且，雖然這似乎違反直覺，但投資比特幣實際上可能比許多人想像的風險要小。

Here's why I think Bitcoin could be a better buy than Nvidia over the next five years.

這就是為什麼我認為未來五年比特幣可能比英偉達更值得購買的原因。

Impressive gains, but what about the future?

成績斐然，但未來呢？

Nvidia has outperformed Bitcoin this year, and it's not even close. In 2024, Nvidia is up about 130%, while Bitcoin is up only 40%. Moreover, Nvidia has outperformed Bitcoin during the past 12 months, 18 months, and 24 months. Over the past two years, Nvidia is up 764%, compared to just 209% for Bitcoin.

英偉達今年的表現超過了比特幣，而且還差得遠。 2024 年，英偉達上漲約 130%，而比特幣僅上漲 40%。此外，Nvidia 在過去 12 個月、18 個月和 24 個月的表現都優於比特幣。過去兩年，英偉達的股價上漲了 764%，而比特幣的漲幅僅 209%。

So it's time to forget about Bitcoin and go all-in on Nvidia, right?

所以是時候忘記比特幣並全力投入 Nvidia 了，對嗎？

Wrong. And that's because stocks are not valued based on how they've performed in the past, but rather how they are going to perform in the future. And this is where the upside potential of Bitcoin is so impressive. Quite simply, the further you extend your price forecast into the future, the better Bitcoin looks.

錯誤的。這是因為股票的估值不是基於它們過去的表現，而是基於它們未來的表現。這就是比特幣的上行潛力如此令人印象深刻的地方。很簡單，你將價格預測延伸得越遠，比特幣看起來就越好。

For example, investment firm Bernstein thinks Bitcoin could more than triple in price to hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. A growing number of Silicon Valley tech leaders think Bitcoin could hit a price of $1 million within the next few years, and Cathie Wood of Ark Invest thinks that Bitcoin could hit a price of $3.8 million by 2030.

例如，投資公司Bernstein 認為，到2025 年底，比特幣的價格可能會上漲兩倍以上，達到20 萬美元。 ，而Cathie Wood 的Ark Invest 認為，到 2030 年，比特幣的價格可能會達到 380 萬美元。

But all of those price predictions pale in comparison to the one made by Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy. He thinks Bitcoin could hit $13 million by the year 2045. He's convinced that Bitcoin is the future of money, and that it has the potential to replace the U.S. dollar. You might not agree, but that's what creates markets.

但與 MicroStrategy 創辦人兼執行主席 Michael Saylor 的預測相比，所有這些價格預測都顯得蒼白無力。他認為比特幣到 2045 年可能會達到 1,300 萬美元。你可能不同意，但這就是創造市場的原因。

Based on today's Bitcoin price of about $60,000, a price of $13 million represents a gain of more than 21,000%. Can you find any Wall Street analysts willing to make the same prediction for Nvidia?

以今天約 6 萬美元的比特幣價格計算，1,300 萬美元的價格意味著超過 21,000% 的漲幅。你能找到願意對英偉達做出同樣預測的華爾街分析師嗎？

A surprising revelation about risk

關於風險的驚人啟示

Of course, Bitcoin's enormous upside potential comes with significant risk. The U.S. government could ban Bitcoin, as some other governments have done. U.S. tax authorities could make it extremely burdensome to hold Bitcoin for the long haul, if they require investors to pay taxes on unrealized capital gains. And the Securities and Exchange Commission could act to classify Bitcoin as a security, creating an immediate existential risk.

當然，比特幣巨大的上漲潛力也伴隨著巨大的風險。美國政府可以像其他一些政府一樣禁止比特幣。如果美國稅務機關要求投資者對未實現的資本利得納稅，那麼長期持有比特幣可能會變得極為負擔。美國證券交易委員會可以採取行動將比特幣歸類為證券，造成直接的生存風險。

But it's not like Nvidia doesn't come with its own share of risks. The AI boom could turn out to be a huge speculative bubble, with some already comparing it to the dot-com bubble of the 2000s. And it's not like Nvidia doesn't have its share of competitive rivals, any of which could snatch market share away. Nvidia may never be able to satisfy Wall Street's insatiable appetite for growth.

但這並不是說英偉達就沒有自己的風險。人工智慧的繁榮可能最終會成為一個巨大的投機泡沫，有些人已經將其與 2000 年代的網路泡沫進行比較。英偉達並不是沒有競爭對手的份額，任何一個競爭對手都可能搶走市場份額。英偉達可能永遠無法滿足華爾街對成長永不滿足的胃口。

Thus, a better way of comparing Bitcoin to Nvidia head-to-head likely involves some comparison of risk-adjusted returns. In other words, just how much risk are you taking on to get all that upside potential? In the best of all worlds, you would pick the investment that provides the highest upside possible while taking on as little risk as possible.

因此，將比特幣與英偉達進行正面比較的更好方法可能是對風險調整後的回報進行一些比較。換句話說，為了獲得所有的上升潛力，您要冒多大的風險？在最好的情況下，您會選擇能夠提供盡可能高的收益、同時承擔盡可能小的風險的投資。

And this is where things get very interesting, because on a risk-adjusted basis, Bitcoin may not be as risky as you think. According to Fidelity Investments, at the start of 2024 Bitcoin had the highest Sharpe ratio (which measures risk-adjusted returns) of any asset class over the past five years. This means that, even though you are taking on a tremendous amount of cryptocurrency risk with Bitcoin, you are getting paid for it.

這就是事情變得非常有趣的地方，因為在風險調整的基礎上，比特幣可能沒有你想像的那麼有風險。據富達投資 (Fidelity Investments) 稱，到 2024 年初，比特幣的夏普比率（衡量風險調整後的回報率）是過去五年來所有資產類別中最高的。這意味著，即使您使用比特幣承擔巨大的加密貨幣風險，您也會因此獲得報酬。

Bitcoin vs. Nvidia: Which is the better buy?

比特幣 vs. Nvidia：哪個比較好？

If forced to pick between Bitcoin and Nvidia, I would pick Bitcoin. It's hard to ignore the fact that it has been among the top-performing assets in the world for so long. And, thanks to the launch of the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January, Bitcoin finally appears to be joining the mainstream. You no longer need to be a crypto enthusiast to buy Bitcoin; you can buy it as easily as you would your favorite tech stock.

如果被迫在比特幣和 Nvidia 之間做出選擇，我會選擇比特幣。很難忽視這樣一個事實：它長期以來一直是世界上表現最好的資產之一。而且，由於一月推出了新的現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF），比特幣似乎終於加入了主流。您不再需要成為加密貨幣愛好者才能購買比特幣；您可以像購買您最喜歡的科技股票一樣輕鬆購買它。

And, while the million-dollar price predictions for Bitcoin might strike many as being a bit outlandish, they certainly demonstrate just how much upside potential this cryptocurrency has. Over just about any time horizon, it has more upside potential than any

而且，雖然比特幣百萬美元的價格預測可能會讓許多人覺得有點奇怪，但它們確實證明了這種加密貨幣具有多大的上漲潛力。幾乎在任何時間範圍內，它都比任何時期都具有更大的上行潛力