在歷史低點的比特幣Mempool：地平線上的麻煩？

比特幣的Mempool異常空虛，這表明儘管價格很高，但仍有潛在的危機。這是網絡的臨時休息還是更深層問題的跡象？

Bitcoin Mempool at Historical Lows: Trouble on the Horizon?

在歷史低點的比特幣Mempool：地平線上的麻煩？

Bitcoin's mempool, the waiting room for transactions, is looking eerily empty. This raises questions about the network's health despite Bitcoin's price hovering near all-time highs. Is this just a temporary dip, or are we facing a 'trouble horizon'?

比特幣的Mempool是交易的候車室，看上去很空虛。儘管比特幣的價格徘徊在有史以來的高點附近，但這仍引發了有關網絡健康的疑問。這只是暫時的下降，還是我們面臨“麻煩的視野”？

The Empty Mempool: A Ghost Town?

空的Mempool：一個幽靈小鎮？

The Bitcoin mempool, usually bustling with unconfirmed transactions, is currently experiencing historical lows. We're talking levels not seen in a while. On July 5, 2025, the number of transactions waiting to be processed dwindled to around 5,000, a far cry from the 150,000 seen when Bitcoin first hit $100,000 in late 2024. Even a recent bump to 15,000 transactions is still significantly low.

比特幣備忘錄通常以未經證實的交易繁華，目前正在經歷歷史低谷。我們正在談論一段時間以來從未見過的水平。 2025年7月5日，等待處理的交易數量減少到5,000左右，這與150,000的哭聲相去甚遠，當時比特幣在2024年末首次達到100,000美元時。

Retail Investors MIA

零售投資者MIA

Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, points to the absence of retail investors as the primary culprit. He notes that a full mempool is usually a sign of strong retail demand. Basically, when regular folks are actively buying and selling, the mempool gets congested. Their absence suggests a lack of widespread engagement with the network.

Alphractal首席執行官Joao Wedson指出，散戶投資者的缺乏是主要的罪魁禍首。他指出，完整的孟買通常是零售需求強的標誌。基本上，當普通人積極買賣時，孟買就會擁擠。他們的缺席表明與網絡缺乏廣泛的參與。

Institutional Inflow: Not Enough?

機構流入：還不夠嗎？

While institutional investors are still scooping up Bitcoin through ETFs and treasury allocations, it seems their activity isn't enough to compensate for the missing retail crowd. CryptoQuant data indicates that net Bitcoin demand has contracted significantly, even with institutional buying. ETF purchases have also seen a decline, suggesting that even the big players might be reassessing their strategies.

儘管機構投資者仍在通過ETF和財政部分配來挖掘比特幣，但似乎他們的活動不足以彌補丟失的零售人群。加密數據表明，即使是機構購買，比特幣需求也有顯著收縮。 ETF的購買也有所下降，這表明即使是大玩家也可能正在重新評估他們的策略。

A Crisis in the Making?

製作中的危機？

Some, like Bitcoin advocate Joel Valanzuela, are raising serious concerns. Valanzuela suggests that this low activity signals a fundamental problem with Bitcoin's utility. He fears that if this trend persists, the network could face bankruptcy or become heavily custodial, controlled by governments and institutions. A bit dramatic, maybe, but it highlights the potential risks.

有些人，例如比特幣倡導者喬爾·瓦蘭蘇拉（Joel Valanzuela），引起了嚴重的關注。瓦蘭蘇埃拉（Valanzuela）認為，這種低活動標誌著比特幣效用的基本問題。他擔心，如果這種趨勢持續存在，該網絡可能會面臨破產或受到政府和機構控制的嚴重監護。也許有點戲劇性，但它突出了潛在的風險。

While I don't necessarily agree with the 'bankruptcy' hyperbole, it's hard to ignore the warning signs. If the mempool remains consistently empty, it will impact miner revenue. With fewer fees coming in, they might be less incentivized to secure the network. That is a scenario that would require innovative solutions to ensure the Bitcoin network's long-term health.

儘管我不一定同意“破產”誇張，但很難忽略警告信號。如果Mempool始終保持空，則會影響礦工的收入。隨著費用較少，他們可能會少激勵他們確保網絡。這種情況需要創新的解決方案來確保比特幣網絡的長期健康狀況。

The Road Ahead

前面的道路

So, what does this all mean? Are we doomed? Probably not. Bitcoin has weathered storms before. However, the low mempool activity is definitely something to watch. It highlights the importance of broader adoption and finding ways to incentivize network participation beyond just institutional investment. Maybe it's time for some cool new use cases to lure those retail investors back in. After all, a party is only fun when everyone's invited, right? And in the meantime, maybe this lull is a good time to stack some sats while transaction fees are low! Just sayin'.

那麼，這全是什麼意思？我們注定要失敗嗎？可能不是。比特幣以前有風暴。但是，低孟買活動絕對值得關注。它突出了更廣泛採用的重要性，並找到了激勵網絡參與的方法，而不僅僅是機構投資。也許是時候讓一些新的新用例吸引這些散戶投資者回來了。畢竟，只有在所有人被邀請時，聚會才有趣，對嗎？同時，也許這種休息是堆放一些SAT的好時機，而交易費用很低！只是說。