在历史低点的比特币Mempool：地平线上的麻烦？

比特币的Mempool异常空虚，这表明尽管价格很高，但仍有潜在的危机。这是网络的临时休息还是更深层问题的迹象？

Bitcoin Mempool at Historical Lows: Trouble on the Horizon?

在历史低点的比特币Mempool：地平线上的麻烦？

Bitcoin's mempool, the waiting room for transactions, is looking eerily empty. This raises questions about the network's health despite Bitcoin's price hovering near all-time highs. Is this just a temporary dip, or are we facing a 'trouble horizon'?

比特币的Mempool是交易的候车室，看上去很空虚。尽管比特币的价格徘徊在有史以来的高点附近，但这仍引发了有关网络健康的疑问。这只是暂时的下降，还是我们面临“麻烦的视野”？

The Empty Mempool: A Ghost Town?

空的Mempool：一个幽灵小镇？

The Bitcoin mempool, usually bustling with unconfirmed transactions, is currently experiencing historical lows. We're talking levels not seen in a while. On July 5, 2025, the number of transactions waiting to be processed dwindled to around 5,000, a far cry from the 150,000 seen when Bitcoin first hit $100,000 in late 2024. Even a recent bump to 15,000 transactions is still significantly low.

比特币备忘录通常以未经证实的交易繁华，目前正在经历历史低谷。我们正在谈论一段时间以来从未见过的水平。 2025年7月5日，等待处理的交易数量减少到5,000左右，这与150,000的哭声相去甚远，当时比特币在2024年末首次达到100,000美元时。

Retail Investors MIA

零售投资者MIA

Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, points to the absence of retail investors as the primary culprit. He notes that a full mempool is usually a sign of strong retail demand. Basically, when regular folks are actively buying and selling, the mempool gets congested. Their absence suggests a lack of widespread engagement with the network.

Alphractal首席执行官Joao Wedson指出，散户投资者的缺乏是主要的罪魁祸首。他指出，完整的孟买通常是零售需求强的标志。基本上，当普通人积极买卖时，孟买就会拥挤。他们的缺席表明与网络缺乏广泛的参与。

Institutional Inflow: Not Enough?

机构流入：还不够吗？

While institutional investors are still scooping up Bitcoin through ETFs and treasury allocations, it seems their activity isn't enough to compensate for the missing retail crowd. CryptoQuant data indicates that net Bitcoin demand has contracted significantly, even with institutional buying. ETF purchases have also seen a decline, suggesting that even the big players might be reassessing their strategies.

尽管机构投资者仍在通过ETF和财政部分配来挖掘比特币，但似乎他们的活动不足以弥补丢失的零售人群。加密数据表明，即使是机构购买，比特币需求也有显着收缩。 ETF的购买也有所下降，这表明即使是大玩家也可能正在重新评估他们的策略。

A Crisis in the Making?

制作中的危机？

Some, like Bitcoin advocate Joel Valanzuela, are raising serious concerns. Valanzuela suggests that this low activity signals a fundamental problem with Bitcoin's utility. He fears that if this trend persists, the network could face bankruptcy or become heavily custodial, controlled by governments and institutions. A bit dramatic, maybe, but it highlights the potential risks.

有些人，例如比特币倡导者乔尔·瓦兰苏拉（Joel Valanzuela），引起了严重的关注。瓦兰苏埃拉（Valanzuela）认为，这种低活动标志着比特币效用的基本问题。他担心，如果这种趋势持续存在，该网络可能会面临破产或受到政府和机构控制的严重监护。也许有点戏剧性，但它突出了潜在的风险。

While I don't necessarily agree with the 'bankruptcy' hyperbole, it's hard to ignore the warning signs. If the mempool remains consistently empty, it will impact miner revenue. With fewer fees coming in, they might be less incentivized to secure the network. That is a scenario that would require innovative solutions to ensure the Bitcoin network's long-term health.

尽管我不一定同意“破产”夸张，但很难忽略警告信号。如果Mempool始终保持空，则会影响矿工的收入。随着费用较少，他们可能会少激励他们确保网络。这种情况需要创新的解决方案来确保比特币网络的长期健康状况。

The Road Ahead

前面的道路

So, what does this all mean? Are we doomed? Probably not. Bitcoin has weathered storms before. However, the low mempool activity is definitely something to watch. It highlights the importance of broader adoption and finding ways to incentivize network participation beyond just institutional investment. Maybe it's time for some cool new use cases to lure those retail investors back in. After all, a party is only fun when everyone's invited, right? And in the meantime, maybe this lull is a good time to stack some sats while transaction fees are low! Just sayin'.

那么，这全是什么意思？我们注定要失败吗？可能不是。比特币以前有风暴。但是，低孟买活动绝对值得关注。它突出了更广泛采用的重要性，并找到了激励网络参与的方法，而不仅仅是机构投资。也许是时候让一些新的新用例吸引这些散户投资者回来了。毕竟，只有在所有人被邀请时，聚会才有趣，对吗？同时，也许这种休息是堆放一些SAT的好时机，而交易费用很低！只是说。