比特幣減半，價格波動持續

比特幣近期的減半事件既帶來了挑戰，也帶來了機會。在最初的飆升之後，比特幣的價格經歷了波動，引起了一些分析師的擔憂。然而，比特幣 ETF 的成長和蓬勃發展的 L2 生態系統表明了積極的長期前景。 ETF 流入量已達到 123 億美元，而 Stacks 和 Ordinals 等 L2 解決方案正在為比特幣釋放新的可能性。儘管短期內可能出現調整，但專家們對傳統金融對比特幣的採用和使用仍然持樂觀態度，強調了加密貨幣的彈性和持續成長的潛力。

Bitcoin Halving Concludes, Price Movements Remain Unpredictable

比特幣減半結束，價格走勢仍難以預測

On April 20, the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving event transpired, reducing the block mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This marked the fourth halving in Bitcoin's history, an occurrence that has traditionally triggered substantial price increases.

4 月 20 日，萬眾期待的比特幣減半事件發生，區塊挖礦獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減少至 3.125 BTC。這標誌著比特幣歷史上的第四次減半，這一事件傳統上會引發價格大幅上漲。

Following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin's value soared by an astounding 9,500%, while the 2016 halving witnessed a 3,000% surge over the subsequent year. However, the 2020 halving produced a more modest rally, with Bitcoin gaining approximately 650%.

2012 年減半後，比特幣的價值飆升了 9,500%，而 2016 年減半後的一年，比特幣價格飆升了 3,000%。然而，2020 年減半帶來了較為溫和的反彈，比特幣上漲了約 650%。

In the run-up to the 2024 halving, Bitcoin experienced a volatile period, with its price initially surging by 110%. During the week preceding the event, however, its value dropped by 17% from $72,000 to $60,000.

在 2024 年減半之前，比特幣經歷了一段波動時期，其價格最初飆升了 110%。然而，在活動舉行前一周，其價值從 72,000 美元跌至 60,000 美元，下跌了 17%。

As depicted in the chart, Bitcoin's price has not stabilized or risen since the halving. Instead, it has fluctuated erratically, reaching $67,000 on April 24 before retreating to $62,500 within 72 hours.

如圖所示，自減半以來，比特幣的價格並未穩定或上漲。相反，它波動不定，4 月 24 日達到 67,000 美元，然後在 72 小時內回落至 62,500 美元。

Amid this volatility, Bitwise, an asset management company, has cautioned investors to exercise prudence, suggesting that the halving could trigger a "sell the news" event. Analysts from JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank have echoed this sentiment, predicting that BTC could decline to as low as $42,000 in the coming weeks.

在這種波動中，資產管理公司Bitwise提醒投資人謹慎行事，並暗示減半可能引發「拋售新聞」事件。摩根大通和德意志銀行的分析師也表達了這種觀點，預測比特幣可能在未來幾週內跌至 42,000 美元。

ETF Inflows Indicate Potential Price Uptick

ETF 流入表示價格潛在上漲

Since their January 2024 launch, United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced notable growth. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), for instance, enjoyed a remarkable 71-day streak of daily inflows, accumulating nearly $15.5 billion in assets before witnessing its first day of zero net inflows on April 24. This milestone placed IBIT among the top 10 longest inflow streaks for any ETF in history.

自 2024 年 1 月推出以來，美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 經歷了顯著成長。例如，貝萊德(BlackRock) 的iShares 比特幣信託(IBIT) 連續71 天實現每日資金流入，在4 月24 日首次實現零淨流入之前，積累了近155 億美元的資產。 IShares 躋身最長的10 名。

While IBIT's inflows have temporarily paused, other Bitcoin ETFs, such as Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and ARK Invest's ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, have continued to attract substantial inflows during the same period. Collectively, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed $12.3 billion in assets under management since their inception.

雖然 IBIT 的資金流入暫時停止，但其他比特幣 ETF，例如 Fidelity 的 Wise Origin 比特幣基金和 ARK Invest 的 ARK 21Shares 比特幣 ETF，在同一時期繼續吸引大量資金流入。總的來說，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 自成立以來管理的資產已達 123 億美元。

Analysts remain optimistic about the sustained demand for Bitcoin ETFs. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, asserts that BTC ETFs are "just getting started," citing untapped potential from institutions still conducting due diligence and the lack of availability on major wealth management platforms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.

分析師對比特幣 ETF 的持續需求保持樂觀。 Bitwise 首席投資長 Matt Hougan 斷言 BTC ETF“才剛開始”，理由是機構仍在進行盡職調查，而且摩根士丹利和美林等主要財富管理平台缺乏可用性，尚未開發出潛力。

Hougan predicts that Bitcoin ETFs could gather over $200 billion of inflows by the next halving in 2028, mirroring the historical growth trajectory of gold ETFs after their debut. Furthermore, he posits that central banks may begin allocating Bitcoin as a non-debt reserve asset, contributing to a projected Bitcoin price exceeding $250,000 by 2028.

Hougan 預測，到 2028 年下一次減半時，比特幣 ETF 可能會吸引超過 2,000 億美元的資金流入，這反映了黃金 ETF 首次亮相後的歷史成長軌跡。此外，他認為央行可能會開始將比特幣配置為非債務儲備資產，預計到 2028 年比特幣價格將超過 25 萬美元。

Bitcoin's Burgeoning L2 Ecosystem

比特幣蓬勃發展的 L2 生態系統

Over the past year, the development of Bitcoin's layer-2 (L2) ecosystem has emerged as a key driver, potentially propelling the cryptocurrency to unprecedented heights in the future. Central to these advancements has been the recent Nakamoto upgrade to the Stacks network, a leading L2 built on Bitcoin.

在過去的一年裡，比特幣第二層（L2）生態系統的發展已成為關鍵驅動力，未來將加密貨幣推向前所未有的高度。這些進步的核心是中本聰最近對 Stacks 網路的升級，這是一個基於比特幣構建的領先的 L2。

The Nakamoto upgrade, implemented shortly after Bitcoin's latest halving, enhances transaction throughput and establishes finality for L2 transactions on Bitcoin's base layer. By enabling faster block processing times of around five seconds (compared to 10-30 minutes previously), Stacks intends to unlock Bitcoin's programmability akin to Ethereum and Solana.

中本聰升級是在比特幣最近一次減半後不久實施的，它提高了交易吞吐量，並在比特幣基礎層上建立了 L2 交易的最終確定性。透過將區塊處理時間縮短至約 5 秒（之前為 10-30 分鐘），Stacks 打算解鎖比特幣的可編程性，類似於以太坊和 Solana。

According to Muneeb Ali, Stacks' co-founder, this L2 infrastructure advancement will rekindle interest in Bitcoin itself as users begin to differentiate between BTC, the asset, and Bitcoin's robust underlying infrastructure.

Stacks 聯合創始人 Muneeb Ali 表示，隨著用戶開始區分 BTC、資產和比特幣強大的底層基礎設施，這種 L2 基礎設施的進步將重新點燃人們對比特幣本身的興趣。

With nearly $1 trillion of Bitcoin's market cap representing idle capital awaiting meaningful utilization, Ali believes that L2s present an opportunity to create an "economic flywheel" around BTC through decentralized applications and smart contracts.

近 1 兆美元的比特幣市值代表著等待有意義利用的閒置資本，阿里認為 L2 提供了一個透過去中心化應用程式和智慧合約圍繞 BTC 創建「經濟飛輪」的機會。

Iva Wisher, Chief Operating Officer of Prom, a modular zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) layer-2 solution, shares this perspective: "L2s offer multiple avenues for expanding the capabilities of the Bitcoin protocol. Combined with the rising inflows into BTC ETFs and the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by mainstream financial institutions, there are ample reasons for optimism."

模組化零知識以太坊虛擬機(EVM) 第2 層解決方案Prom 的首席營運長Iva Wisher 分享了這一觀點：「L2 為擴展比特幣協議的功能提供了多種途徑。再加上流入BTC 的資金不斷增加ETF 以及主流金融機構越來越多地採用比特幣，我們有充分的理由保持樂觀。

Beyond Stacks, the burgeoning Bitcoin L2 ecosystem has given rise to innovations such as Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens, which gained significant traction following Bitcoin's most recent all-time high. Ordinals enable the inscription of digital artifacts directly onto individual satoshis, the smallest units of Bitcoin.

除了 Stacks 之外，蓬勃發展的比特幣 L2 生態系統還催生了 Ordinals 和 BRC-20 代幣等創新，這些創新在比特幣創下近期歷史新高後獲得了巨大的關注。序號可以將數位文物直接刻在單一聰（比特幣的最小單位）上。

This innovation allows for the creation and ownership of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) without compromising the security and decentralization of the Bitcoin blockchain. Each ordinal inscription is unique, attaching data such as images, text, or code to specific satoshis, making them collectible and potentially valuable.

這項創新允許在不損害比特幣區塊鏈安全性和去中心化的情況下創建和擁有不可替代代幣（NFT）。每個序號銘文都是獨一無二的，將圖像、文字或程式碼等資料附加到特定的聰上，使它們具有收藏價值和潛在價值。

On the other hand, BRC-20 tokens propose a standard for issuing fungible assets on the Bitcoin network, similar to Ethereum's ERC-20 standard. They aim to expand Bitcoin's utility by enabling the creation of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, stablecoins, and other financial instruments directly on Bitcoin's blockchain.

另一方面，BRC-20代幣提出了在比特幣網路上發行可替代資產的標準，類似於以太坊的ERC-20標準。他們的目標是透過直接在比特幣區塊鏈上創建去中心化金融（DeFi）應用程式、穩定幣和其他金融工具來擴展比特幣的實用性。

Projects like Velar and Solv have already developed solutions that leverage these technologies, allowing users to earn interest directly on their dormant BTC.

Velar 和 Solv 等項目已經開發出利用這些技術的解決方案，讓用戶可以直接從休眠的 BTC 中賺取利息。

This experimentation is regarded as a positive force driving research and development around L2s, potentially setting the stage for an "L2 summer" of accelerated growth and competition within Bitcoin's developer landscape. Jack Vinijtrongjit, CEO of Saakuru Labs, a Web3 enterprise software company, remarked: "L2s undoubtedly add a layer of demands and use cases to the Bitcoin ecosystem. Their growth may disrupt the typical flow of funds into altcoins and entice retail investors to explore opportunities within the Bitcoin ecosystem."

這項實驗被認為是推動 L2 相關研究和開發的積極力量，有可能為比特幣開發者領域加速成長和競爭的「L2 夏天」奠定基礎。 Web3 企業軟體公司Saakuru Labs 的執行長Jack Vinijtrongjit 表示：「L2 無疑為比特幣生態系統增加了一層需求和用例。它們的成長可能會擾亂資金流入山寨幣的典型流程，並吸引散戶投資者探索機會。

Bitcoin's Medium-Term Outlook

比特幣的中期展望

When asked to speculate on Bitcoin's future price trajectory, Vinijtrongjit predicted further corrections and a potential cooling-off period over the next two to three months as the market consolidates. "This should not be a cause for concern for long-term investors," he added, "but those in need of short-term liquidity should exercise caution and plan accordingly to mitigate potential issues."

當被要求推測比特幣未來的價格軌跡時，Vinijtrongjit 預測，隨著市場整合，未來兩到三個月將出現進一步調整和潛在的冷靜期。他補充說：“這不應該成為長期投資者擔憂的原因，但那些需要短期流動性的人應該謹慎行事，並製定相應的計劃，以減輕潛在的問題。”

Jakub Bojan, CEO of DeFi protocol Soil, anticipates that Bitcoin's price will fluctuate in the coming months, contingent upon the evolving situation in the Middle East. "If the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict intensifies, the financial

DeFi 協議 Soil 的執行長 Jakub Bojan 預計，未來幾個月比特幣的價格將根據中東局勢的變化而波動。 「如果當前的以色列-巴勒斯坦衝突加劇，金融