比特币减半，价格波动持续

比特币近期的减半事件既带来了挑战，也带来了机遇。在最初的飙升之后，比特币的价格经历了波动，引起了一些分析师的担忧。然而，比特币 ETF 的增长和蓬勃发展的 L2 生态系统表明了积极的长期前景。 ETF 流入量已达到 123 亿美元，而 Stacks 和 Ordinals 等 L2 解决方案正在为比特币释放新的可能性。尽管短期内可能出现调整，但专家们对传统金融对比特币的采用和使用仍然持乐观态度，强调了加密货币的弹性和持续增长的潜力。

Bitcoin Halving Concludes, Price Movements Remain Unpredictable

比特币减半结束，价格走势仍难以预测

On April 20, the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving event transpired, reducing the block mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This marked the fourth halving in Bitcoin's history, an occurrence that has traditionally triggered substantial price increases.

4 月 20 日，万众期待的比特币减半事件发生，区块挖矿奖励从 6.25 BTC 减少至 3.125 BTC。这标志着比特币历史上的第四次减半，这一事件传统上会引发价格大幅上涨。

Following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin's value soared by an astounding 9,500%, while the 2016 halving witnessed a 3,000% surge over the subsequent year. However, the 2020 halving produced a more modest rally, with Bitcoin gaining approximately 650%.

2012 年减半后，比特币的价值飙升了 9,500%，而 2016 年减半后的一年，比特币价格飙升了 3,000%。然而，2020 年减半带来了较为温和的反弹，比特币上涨了约 650%。

In the run-up to the 2024 halving, Bitcoin experienced a volatile period, with its price initially surging by 110%. During the week preceding the event, however, its value dropped by 17% from $72,000 to $60,000.

在 2024 年减半之前，比特币经历了一段波动时期，其价格最初飙升了 110%。然而，在活动举行前一周，其价值从 72,000 美元跌至 60,000 美元，下跌了 17%。

As depicted in the chart, Bitcoin's price has not stabilized or risen since the halving. Instead, it has fluctuated erratically, reaching $67,000 on April 24 before retreating to $62,500 within 72 hours.

如图所示，自减半以来，比特币的价格并未稳定或上涨。相反，它波动不定，4 月 24 日达到 67,000 美元，然后在 72 小时内回落至 62,500 美元。

Amid this volatility, Bitwise, an asset management company, has cautioned investors to exercise prudence, suggesting that the halving could trigger a "sell the news" event. Analysts from JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank have echoed this sentiment, predicting that BTC could decline to as low as $42,000 in the coming weeks.

在这种波动中，资产管理公司Bitwise提醒投资者谨慎行事，并暗示减半可能引发“抛售新闻”事件。摩根大通和德意志银行的分析师也表达了这种观点，预测比特币可能在未来几周内跌至 42,000 美元。

ETF Inflows Indicate Potential Price Uptick

ETF 流入表明价格潜在上涨

Since their January 2024 launch, United States-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced notable growth. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), for instance, enjoyed a remarkable 71-day streak of daily inflows, accumulating nearly $15.5 billion in assets before witnessing its first day of zero net inflows on April 24. This milestone placed IBIT among the top 10 longest inflow streaks for any ETF in history.

自 2024 年 1 月推出以来，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 经历了显着增长。例如，贝莱德 (BlackRock) 的 iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT) 连续 71 天实现每日资金流入，在 4 月 24 日首次实现零净流入之前，积累了近 155 亿美元的资产。 这一里程碑使 IShares 跻身最长的 10 名。历史上任何 ETF 的资金流入都是连续的。

While IBIT's inflows have temporarily paused, other Bitcoin ETFs, such as Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and ARK Invest's ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, have continued to attract substantial inflows during the same period. Collectively, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have amassed $12.3 billion in assets under management since their inception.

虽然 IBIT 的资金流入暂时停止，但其他比特币 ETF，例如 Fidelity 的 Wise Origin 比特币基金和 ARK Invest 的 ARK 21Shares 比特币 ETF，在同一时期继续吸引大量资金流入。总的来说，美国现货比特币 ETF 自成立以来管理的资产已达 123 亿美元。

Analysts remain optimistic about the sustained demand for Bitcoin ETFs. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, asserts that BTC ETFs are "just getting started," citing untapped potential from institutions still conducting due diligence and the lack of availability on major wealth management platforms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.

分析师对比特币 ETF 的持续需求保持乐观。 Bitwise 首席投资官 Matt Hougan 断言 BTC ETF“才刚刚开始”，理由是机构仍在进行尽职调查，而且摩根士丹利和美林等主要财富管理平台缺乏可用性，尚未开发出潜力。

Hougan predicts that Bitcoin ETFs could gather over $200 billion of inflows by the next halving in 2028, mirroring the historical growth trajectory of gold ETFs after their debut. Furthermore, he posits that central banks may begin allocating Bitcoin as a non-debt reserve asset, contributing to a projected Bitcoin price exceeding $250,000 by 2028.

Hougan 预测，到 2028 年下一次减半时，比特币 ETF 可能会吸引超过 2000 亿美元的资金流入，这反映了黄金 ETF 首次亮相后的历史增长轨迹。此外，他认为央行可能会开始将比特币配置为非债务储备资产，预计到 2028 年比特币价格将超过 25 万美元。

Bitcoin's Burgeoning L2 Ecosystem

比特币蓬勃发展的 L2 生态系统

Over the past year, the development of Bitcoin's layer-2 (L2) ecosystem has emerged as a key driver, potentially propelling the cryptocurrency to unprecedented heights in the future. Central to these advancements has been the recent Nakamoto upgrade to the Stacks network, a leading L2 built on Bitcoin.

在过去的一年里，比特币第二层（L2）生态系统的发展已成为关键驱动力，有可能在未来将加密货币推向前所未有的高度。这些进步的核心是中本聪最近对 Stacks 网络的升级，这是一个基于比特币构建的领先的 L2。

The Nakamoto upgrade, implemented shortly after Bitcoin's latest halving, enhances transaction throughput and establishes finality for L2 transactions on Bitcoin's base layer. By enabling faster block processing times of around five seconds (compared to 10-30 minutes previously), Stacks intends to unlock Bitcoin's programmability akin to Ethereum and Solana.

中本聪升级是在比特币最近一次减半后不久实施的，它提高了交易吞吐量，并在比特币基础层上建立了 L2 交易的最终确定性。通过将块处理时间缩短至约 5 秒（之前为 10-30 分钟），Stacks 打算解锁比特币的可编程性，类似于以太坊和 Solana。

According to Muneeb Ali, Stacks' co-founder, this L2 infrastructure advancement will rekindle interest in Bitcoin itself as users begin to differentiate between BTC, the asset, and Bitcoin's robust underlying infrastructure.

Stacks 联合创始人 Muneeb Ali 表示，随着用户开始区分 BTC、资产和比特币强大的底层基础设施，这种 L2 基础设施的进步将重新点燃人们对比特币本身的兴趣。

With nearly $1 trillion of Bitcoin's market cap representing idle capital awaiting meaningful utilization, Ali believes that L2s present an opportunity to create an "economic flywheel" around BTC through decentralized applications and smart contracts.

近 1 万亿美元的比特币市值代表着等待有意义利用的闲置资本，阿里认为 L2 提供了一个通过去中心化应用程序和智能合约围绕 BTC 创建“经济飞轮”的机会。

Iva Wisher, Chief Operating Officer of Prom, a modular zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) layer-2 solution, shares this perspective: "L2s offer multiple avenues for expanding the capabilities of the Bitcoin protocol. Combined with the rising inflows into BTC ETFs and the increasing adoption of Bitcoin by mainstream financial institutions, there are ample reasons for optimism."

模块化零知识以太坊虚拟机 (EVM) 第 2 层解决方案 Prom 的首席运营官 Iva Wisher 分享了这一观点：“L2 为扩展比特币协议的功能提供了多种途径。再加上流入 BTC 的资金不断增加ETF 以及主流金融机构越来越多地采用比特币，我们有充分的理由保持乐观。”

Beyond Stacks, the burgeoning Bitcoin L2 ecosystem has given rise to innovations such as Ordinals and BRC-20 tokens, which gained significant traction following Bitcoin's most recent all-time high. Ordinals enable the inscription of digital artifacts directly onto individual satoshis, the smallest units of Bitcoin.

除了 Stacks 之外，蓬勃发展的比特币 L2 生态系统还催生了 Ordinals 和 BRC-20 代币等创新，这些创新在比特币创下近期历史新高后获得了巨大的关注。序号可以将数字文物直接刻在单个聪（比特币的最小单位）上。

This innovation allows for the creation and ownership of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) without compromising the security and decentralization of the Bitcoin blockchain. Each ordinal inscription is unique, attaching data such as images, text, or code to specific satoshis, making them collectible and potentially valuable.

这项创新允许在不损害比特币区块链安全性和去中心化的情况下创建和拥有不可替代代币（NFT）。每个序号铭文都是独一无二的，将图像、文本或代码等数据附加到特定的聪上，使它们具有收藏价值和潜在价值。

On the other hand, BRC-20 tokens propose a standard for issuing fungible assets on the Bitcoin network, similar to Ethereum's ERC-20 standard. They aim to expand Bitcoin's utility by enabling the creation of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications, stablecoins, and other financial instruments directly on Bitcoin's blockchain.

另一方面，BRC-20代币提出了在比特币网络上发行可替代资产的标准，类似于以太坊的ERC-20标准。他们的目标是通过直接在比特币区块链上创建去中心化金融（DeFi）应用程序、稳定币和其他金融工具来扩展比特币的实用性。

Projects like Velar and Solv have already developed solutions that leverage these technologies, allowing users to earn interest directly on their dormant BTC.

Velar 和 Solv 等项目已经开发出利用这些技术的解决方案，允许用户直接从休眠的 BTC 中赚取利息。

This experimentation is regarded as a positive force driving research and development around L2s, potentially setting the stage for an "L2 summer" of accelerated growth and competition within Bitcoin's developer landscape. Jack Vinijtrongjit, CEO of Saakuru Labs, a Web3 enterprise software company, remarked: "L2s undoubtedly add a layer of demands and use cases to the Bitcoin ecosystem. Their growth may disrupt the typical flow of funds into altcoins and entice retail investors to explore opportunities within the Bitcoin ecosystem."

这一实验被认为是推动 L2 相关研究和开发的积极力量，有可能为比特币开发者领域加速增长和竞争的“L2 夏天”奠定基础。 Web3 企业软件公司 Saakuru Labs 的首席执行官 Jack Vinijtrongjit 表示：“L2 无疑为比特币生态系统增加了一层需求和用例。它们的增长可能会扰乱资金流入山寨币的典型流程，并吸引散户投资者探索机会。”在比特币生态系统内。”

Bitcoin's Medium-Term Outlook

比特币的中期展望

When asked to speculate on Bitcoin's future price trajectory, Vinijtrongjit predicted further corrections and a potential cooling-off period over the next two to three months as the market consolidates. "This should not be a cause for concern for long-term investors," he added, "but those in need of short-term liquidity should exercise caution and plan accordingly to mitigate potential issues."

当被要求推测比特币未来的价格轨迹时，Vinijtrongjit 预测，随着市场整合，未来两到三个月将出现进一步调整和潜在的冷静期。他补充说：“这不应该成为长期投资者担忧的原因，但那些需要短期流动性的人应该谨慎行事，并制定相应的计划，以减轻潜在的问题。”

Jakub Bojan, CEO of DeFi protocol Soil, anticipates that Bitcoin's price will fluctuate in the coming months, contingent upon the evolving situation in the Middle East. "If the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict intensifies, the financial

DeFi 协议 Soil 的首席执行官 Jakub Bojan 预计，未来几个月比特币的价格将根据中东局势的变化而波动。 “如果当前的以色列-巴勒斯坦冲突加剧，金融