比特幣減半迫在眉睫：地緣政治緊張局勢和不斷變化的供需動態

隨著備受期待的比特幣第四次減半事件的臨近，市場正在努力應對對流動性的影響。礦工獎勵的減少預計將使新開採的供應量減少 50%，引發有關供應方動態和市場波動的問題。雖然減半事件歷來與價格上漲有關，但相關性並不意味著因果關係。央行流動性週期和地緣政治緊張局勢也在塑造市場狀況方面發揮重要作用。最近的地緣政治事件導致波動性和流動性擔憂加劇，凸顯了加密貨幣對外部因素的敏感度。儘管透過 ETF 改善了比特幣的流動性，但市場仍然對風險敏感，並受到央行在應對通膨和貨幣政策時採取的行動的影響。

Bitcoin Halving: Unraveling the Impact on Liquidity Dynamics Amid Geopolitical Tensions

比特幣減半：揭示地緣政治緊張局勢下對流動動態的影響

Countdown to Halving Event

減半事件倒數計時

The highly anticipated fourth phase of Bitcoin's halving is imminent, projected to occur around the final hours of Friday evening in the Americas or Saturday morning in Asia and Europe. This event marks a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history, with the reward for miners completing a block being halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

備受期待的比特幣減半的第四階段即將到來，預計將在美洲週五晚上的最後幾個小時或亞洲和歐洲週六早上發生。這一事件標誌著加密貨幣歷史上的一個重要里程碑，完成一個區塊的礦工的獎勵從 6.25 BTC 減半至 3.125 BTC。

Anticipated Impact on Supply

對供應的預期影響

The halving event will inevitably reduce the supply of bitcoins from miners. However, the question arises: will this impact the overall liquidity of the market? The market metrics suggest that the event has been anticipated and its effects largely discounted.

減半事件將不可避免地減少礦工的比特幣供應。但問題來了：這會影響市場整體的流動性嗎？市場指標表明該事件已被預料到，其影響在很大程度上被低估了。

Historical Halvings and Liquidity

歷史減半和流動性

Every 210,000 blocks, the Bitcoin network's protocol cuts the number of new rewards in half. Coinbase's institutional research team points out that this will result in a decline in newly minted supply from 900 bitcoins per day to 450 bitcoins per day. At current market prices ($65,000 per BTC), this translates to approximately $30 million worth of new supply daily or $900 million per month.

每 21 萬個區塊，比特幣網路協議就會將新獎勵的數量減少一半。 Coinbase的機構研究團隊指出，這將導致新鑄造的比特幣供應量從每天900個比特幣下降到每天450個比特幣。以當前市場價格（每 BTC 65,000 美元）計算，這意味著每天新增供應量約為 3,000 萬美元，每月新增供應量約為 9 億美元。

Comparative Trading Volume

交易量比較

These figures remain relatively low compared to the average daily trading volumes across crypto exchanges, particularly since the launch of BTC ETF trading. The amount of tradable Bitcoin has also increased during the recent bull run. Active BTC supply, defined as Bitcoin moved in the past three months, has risen to 1.3 million, significantly higher than the 150,000 mined during that period.

與加密貨幣交易所的平均每日交易量相比，這些數字仍然相對較低，特別是自推出 BTC ETF 交易以來。在最近的多頭市場中，可交易的比特幣數量也有所增加。活躍的 BTC 供應量（定義為比特幣在過去三個月內的變動）已升至 130 萬個，明顯高於同期開採的 15 萬個。

Analyst Perspective

分析師視角

Coinbase Research Analyst David Han believes that the decline in BTC mining issuance could create constructive supply-side dynamics in the long term. However, he expresses skepticism that it will lead to an imminent supply crunch. Han notes that during bull markets, the primary contributors to increased BTC supply are long-term wallets becoming active rather than newly mined BTC.

Coinbase 研究分析師 David Han 認為，從長遠來看，BTC 挖礦發行量的下降可能會創造建設性的供應方動態。然而，他對這是否會導致迫在眉睫的供應緊縮表示懷疑。 Han 指出，在多頭市場期間，比特幣供應增加的主要貢獻者是長期錢包變得活躍，而不是新開採的比特幣。

Halving and Fiat Liquidity Cycles

減半和法定流動性週期

While there is some historical correlation between halving events and subsequent price rallies, it is crucial to avoid the fallacy of assuming causation. Halving events do not perfectly coincide with central bank liquidity cycles, but there have been notable overlaps.

儘管減半事件與隨後的價格上漲之間存在一些歷史相關性，但避免假設因果關係的謬誤至關重要。減半事件與央行流動性週期並不完全一致，但有明顯的重疊。

Geopolitical Influence

地緣政治影響

Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have highlighted the potential impact of external factors on the crypto market. Following an attack by Iran on Israel, crypto assets experienced a sharp drop amid declining liquidity. Coinbase registered $2 billion worth of liquidations in the aftermath.

近期中東地緣政治事件凸顯了外部因素對加密貨幣市場的潛在影響。伊朗對以色列發動攻擊後，加密資產在流動性下降的情況下經歷了大幅下跌。事件發生後，Coinbase 進行了價值 20 億美元的清算。

Fed's Role

聯準會的角色

The Fed's recent shift towards raising rates for a longer period has also raised concerns about a potential easing of monetary policy. This could impact the liquidity situation for both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets.

聯準會最近轉向長期升息也引發了人們對可能放鬆貨幣政策的擔憂。這可能會影響加密貨幣和傳統金融市場的流動性狀況。

Conclusion

結論

As halving cycles continue, their impact on market liquidity may diminish. Most bitcoins have already been mined, and the current liquidity is primarily influenced by the existing supply rather than newly mined coins. While a supply crunch seems unlikely, geopolitical tensions and Fed decisions can trigger volatility or liquidity waves in the market.

隨著減半週期的持續，它們對市場流動性的影響可能會減弱。大多數比特幣已經被開採，當前的流動性主要受到現有供應的影響，而不是新開採的比特幣。儘管供應緊縮似乎不太可能發生，但地緣政治緊張局勢和聯準會的決定可能會引發市場波動或流動性浪潮。

Bitcoin ETFs have significantly improved the liquidity situation for the cryptocurrency. However, central banks will continue to play a pivotal role in addressing inflationary pressures and managing liquidity in the monetary system. As the halving event approaches and passes, the focus will shift to the actions of central banks and their potential impact on the crypto market.

比特幣 ETF 顯著改善了加密貨幣的流動性狀況。然而，央行將繼續在應對通膨壓力和管理貨幣體系流動性方面發揮關鍵作用。隨著減半事件的臨近和過去，焦點將轉向央行的行動及其對加密貨幣市場的潛在影響。