比特币减半迫在眉睫：地缘政治紧张局势和不断变化的供需动态

随着备受期待的比特币第四次减半事件的临近，市场正在努力应对对流动性的影响。矿工奖励的减少预计将使新开采的供应量减少 50%，引发有关供应方动态和市场波动的问题。虽然减半事件历来与价格上涨相关，但相关性并不意味着因果关系。央行流动性周期和地缘政治紧张局势也在塑造市场状况方面发挥着重要作用。最近的地缘政治事件导致波动性和流动性担忧加剧，凸显了加密货币对外部因素的敏感性。尽管通过 ETF 改善了比特币的流动性，但市场仍然对风险敏感，并受到央行在应对通胀和货币政策时采取的行动的影响。

Bitcoin Halving: Unraveling the Impact on Liquidity Dynamics Amid Geopolitical Tensions

比特币减半：揭示地缘政治紧张局势下对流动性动态的影响

Countdown to Halving Event

减半事件倒计时

The highly anticipated fourth phase of Bitcoin's halving is imminent, projected to occur around the final hours of Friday evening in the Americas or Saturday morning in Asia and Europe. This event marks a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's history, with the reward for miners completing a block being halved from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

备受期待的比特币减半的第四阶段即将到来，预计将在美洲周五晚上的最后几个小时或亚洲和欧洲周六早上发生。这一事件标志着加密货币历史上的一个重要里程碑，完成一个区块的矿工的奖励从 6.25 BTC 减半至 3.125 BTC。

Anticipated Impact on Supply

对供应的预期影响

The halving event will inevitably reduce the supply of bitcoins from miners. However, the question arises: will this impact the overall liquidity of the market? The market metrics suggest that the event has been anticipated and its effects largely discounted.

减半事件将不可避免地减少矿工的比特币供应。但问题来了：这会影响市场整体的流动性吗？市场指标表明该事件已被预料到，其影响在很大程度上被低估了。

Historical Halvings and Liquidity

历史减半和流动性

Every 210,000 blocks, the Bitcoin network's protocol cuts the number of new rewards in half. Coinbase's institutional research team points out that this will result in a decline in newly minted supply from 900 bitcoins per day to 450 bitcoins per day. At current market prices ($65,000 per BTC), this translates to approximately $30 million worth of new supply daily or $900 million per month.

每 210,000 个区块，比特币网络协议就会将新奖励的数量减少一半。 Coinbase的机构研究团队指出，这将导致新铸造的比特币供应量从每天900个比特币下降到每天450个比特币。按照当前市场价格（每 BTC 65,000 美元）计算，这意味着每天新增供应量约为 3000 万美元，每月新增供应量约为 9 亿美元。

Comparative Trading Volume

交易量比较

These figures remain relatively low compared to the average daily trading volumes across crypto exchanges, particularly since the launch of BTC ETF trading. The amount of tradable Bitcoin has also increased during the recent bull run. Active BTC supply, defined as Bitcoin moved in the past three months, has risen to 1.3 million, significantly higher than the 150,000 mined during that period.

与加密货币交易所的平均每日交易量相比，这些数字仍然相对较低，特别是自推出 BTC ETF 交易以来。在最近的牛市中，可交易的比特币数量也有所增加。活跃的 BTC 供应量（定义为比特币在过去三个月内的变动）已升至 130 万个，明显高于同期开采的 15 万个。

Analyst Perspective

分析师视角

Coinbase Research Analyst David Han believes that the decline in BTC mining issuance could create constructive supply-side dynamics in the long term. However, he expresses skepticism that it will lead to an imminent supply crunch. Han notes that during bull markets, the primary contributors to increased BTC supply are long-term wallets becoming active rather than newly mined BTC.

Coinbase 研究分析师 David Han 认为，从长远来看，BTC 挖矿发行量的下降可能会创造建设性的供应方动态。然而，他对这是否会导致迫在眉睫的供应紧缩表示怀疑。 Han 指出，在牛市期间，比特币供应增加的主要贡献者是长期钱包变得活跃，而不是新开采的比特币。

Halving and Fiat Liquidity Cycles

减半和法定流动性周期

While there is some historical correlation between halving events and subsequent price rallies, it is crucial to avoid the fallacy of assuming causation. Halving events do not perfectly coincide with central bank liquidity cycles, but there have been notable overlaps.

尽管减半事件与随后的价格上涨之间存在一些历史相关性，但避免假设因果关系的谬误至关重要。减半事件与央行流动性周期并不完全一致，但存在明显的重叠。

Geopolitical Influence

地缘政治影响

Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East have highlighted the potential impact of external factors on the crypto market. Following an attack by Iran on Israel, crypto assets experienced a sharp drop amid declining liquidity. Coinbase registered $2 billion worth of liquidations in the aftermath.

近期中东地缘政治事件凸显了外部因素对加密货币市场的潜在影响。伊朗对以色列发动袭击后，加密资产在流动性下降的情况下经历了大幅下跌。事件发生后，Coinbase 进行了价值 20 亿美元的清算。

Fed's Role

美联储的角色

The Fed's recent shift towards raising rates for a longer period has also raised concerns about a potential easing of monetary policy. This could impact the liquidity situation for both cryptocurrency and traditional financial markets.

美联储最近转向长期加息也引发了人们对可能放松货币政策的担忧。这可能会影响加密货币和传统金融市场的流动性状况。

Conclusion

结论

As halving cycles continue, their impact on market liquidity may diminish. Most bitcoins have already been mined, and the current liquidity is primarily influenced by the existing supply rather than newly mined coins. While a supply crunch seems unlikely, geopolitical tensions and Fed decisions can trigger volatility or liquidity waves in the market.

随着减半周期的继续，它们对市场流动性的影响可能会减弱。大多数比特币已经被开采，当前的流动性主要受到现有供应量的影响，而不是新开采的比特币。尽管供应紧缩似乎不太可能发生，但地缘政治紧张局势和美联储的决定可能会引发市场波动或流动性浪潮。

Bitcoin ETFs have significantly improved the liquidity situation for the cryptocurrency. However, central banks will continue to play a pivotal role in addressing inflationary pressures and managing liquidity in the monetary system. As the halving event approaches and passes, the focus will shift to the actions of central banks and their potential impact on the crypto market.

比特币 ETF 显着改善了加密货币的流动性状况。然而，央行将继续在应对通胀压力和管理货币体系流动性方面发挥关键作用。随着减半事件的临近和过去，焦点将转向央行的行动及其对加密货币市场的潜在影响。