下一次比特幣減半要到 2028 年。

每隔 10 分鐘左右，比特幣區塊鏈上就會創建一個新的「區塊」。比特幣每 21 萬個區塊就會減半一次，大致相當於每四年一次。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) halvings are among the most impactful events in the cryptocurrency’s history. Occurring roughly every four years, they form the crux of Bitcoin’s monetary design.

比特幣（加密貨幣：BTC）減半是加密貨幣歷史上最具影響力的事件之一。它們大約每四年發生一次，構成了比特幣貨幣設計的關鍵。

Since Bitcoin’s launch in 2009, its halvings — which reduce the rewards for mining the cryptocurrency — have produced consistent and recognizable patterns. While past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes, the predictable nature of the halving intervals provides valuable data points for investors.

自 2009 年比特幣推出以來，其減半（減少了開採加密貨幣的獎勵）已經產生了一致且可識別的模式。雖然過去的表現並不能保證未來的結果，但減半間隔的可預測性為投資者提供了有價值的數據點。

With the next halving not due until 2028, understanding these patterns can illuminate potential developments in the Bitcoin market between now and then.

由於下一次減半要到 2028 年才會到來，了解這些模式可以闡明從現在到那時比特幣市場的潛在發展。

What are Bitcoin halvings and why do they matter? Every 10 minutes or so, a new “block” is created on the Bitcoin blockchain. A Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, which roughly equates to once every four years. During these events, the rewards in new Bitcoin that miners receive for processing transactions and securing the network are halved, slowing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation.

什麼是比特幣減半以及它們為何重要？每隔 10 分鐘左右，比特幣區塊鏈上就會創建一個新的「區塊」。比特幣每 21 萬個區塊就會減半一次，大致相當於每四年一次。在這些事件期間，礦工因處理交易和保護網路而獲得的新比特幣獎勵減半，從而減慢了新比特幣進入流通的速度。

When Bitcoin first launched in 2009, the block reward was 50 BTC. The first halving in 2012 lowered it to 25 BTC, followed by 12.5 BTC in 2016, and then to 6.25 BTC in 2020. This year’s halving reduced the reward to 3.125 BTC per block, bringing Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate to less than 1%. This process will continue until 2140, when the last Bitcoins are mined.

2009 年比特幣首次推出時，區塊獎勵為 50 BTC。 2012 年第一次減半將其獎勵降至25 BTC，隨後在2016 年降至12.5 BTC，然後在2020 年降至6.25 BTC。年通膨率降至1% 以下。這個過程將持續到 2140 年，屆時最後一批比特幣將被開採。

The halving is a deliberate feature of the Bitcoin protocol, designed to control inflation and ensure that the total supply of Bitcoin that can ever exist is limited to 21 million. By slowing the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, halvings put upward pressure on the price of Bitcoin, assuming demand remains constant or increases. Historically, this deflationary mechanism has been a major driver of Bitcoin’s price appreciation, as it introduces scarcity into the market.

減半是比特幣協議的一個特意特徵，旨在控制通貨膨脹並確保比特幣的總供應量限制在 2,100 萬個。假設需求保持不變或增加，減半會減緩新比特幣的創建速度，從而對比特幣的價格造成上行壓力。從歷史上看，這種通貨緊縮機制一直是比特幣價格升值的主要驅動力，因為它為市場帶來了稀缺性。

What could happen before the next halving? So what could happen between now and the next halving predicted for 2028? Well, for now it looks like the market is in a bullish trend and hasn’t peaked yet. Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin’s price movements over the last three cycles in the chart below, and his analysis suggests that the current market still has room to grow.

下一次減半之前會發生什麼事？那麼從現在到 2028 年預測的下一次減半會發生什麼事？嗯，目前看來市場處於看漲趨勢，但尚未見頂。加密貨幣分析師 Benjamin Cowen 在下圖中比較了比特幣過去三個週期的價格走勢，他的分析顯示當前市場仍有成長空間。

If past trends continue, this bull market could peak sometime in 2025. While it is difficult to predict the exact price, it is reasonable to expect Bitcoin to see a significant increase from current levels.

如果過去的趨勢繼續下去，這次牛市可能會在 2025 年的某個時候達到頂峰。

But eventually, what goes up must come down. As euphoric as the peak Bitcoin bull market periods can be, painful and brutal crypto winters tend to set in just as quickly.

但最終，上漲的必然會下跌。儘管比特幣牛市高峰期令人欣喜，但痛苦而殘酷的加密貨幣冬天往往也會很快到來。

For example, during the last market cycle, Bitcoin dropped from a high of $68,000 to $34,000 in just two months, ultimately reaching a low of $16,000 in late 2022. This type of volatile price action has been consistent in previous cycles and could very well repeat itself as we approach 2026 and 2027.

例如，在上一個市場週期中，比特幣在短短兩個月內從68,000 美元的高點跌至34,000 美元，最終在2022 年末跌至16,000 美元的低點。週期中一直是一致的，並且很可能會重複當我們接近 2026 年和 2027 年。

But history shows us that periods of decline are often followed by new periods of growth. There is reason to believe that 2028 could be a year in which Bitcoin emerges from the crypto winter.

但歷史告訴我們，衰退期之後往往會出現新的成長期。有理由相信，2028 年可能是比特幣走出加密貨幣冬天的一年。

Navigating the Bitcoin Cycles

駕馭比特幣週期

While no one can accurately predict the future, Bitcoin’s historical patterns are hard to ignore and offer valuable insights for investors. Understanding these cycles can help investors navigate Bitcoin’s volatility and recognize it as part of a broader trend toward higher prices over time.

雖然沒有人能夠準確預測未來，但比特幣的歷史模式很難被忽視，並為投資者提供了寶貴的見解。了解這些週期可以幫助投資者應對比特幣的波動性，並將其視為隨著時間推移價格上漲的更廣泛趨勢的一部分。

While the current bull market has likely not peaked yet, it will eventually give way to a bear market. But if there’s one thing history has taught us, it’s that these periods present opportunities to accumulate the cryptocurrency at lower prices, positioning investors for potential gains as the next halving approaches.

雖然目前的多頭市場可能尚未見頂，但最終將讓位給熊市。但如果歷史告訴我們一件事，那就是這些時期提供了以較低價格累積加密貨幣的機會，為投資者在下一次減半臨近時獲得潛在收益做好準備。

Should You Invest $1,000 in Bitcoin Now?

您現在應該投資 1,000 美元比特幣嗎？

Before buying Bitcoin stocks, you should consider the following:

在購買比特幣股票之前，您應該考慮以下事項：

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team of analysts has just identified what they think is the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could deliver monster returns in the years to come.

Motley Fool 股票顧問團隊的分析師剛剛確定了他們認為投資者現在最值得購買的 10 隻股票…而比特幣不是其中之一。入選的 10 隻股票可能會在未來幾年帶來巨額回報。

Think about when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you had $1,000 invested at the time of our recommendation, you would have $630,099!*

想想 Nvidia 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日發布此清單時...如果您在我們推薦時投資了 1,000 美元，您將獲得 630,099 美元！ * *

Stock Advisor offers investors an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including portfolio building guidance, regular analyst updates, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor has service more than quadrupled the return of

股票顧問為投資者提供了一個易於遵循的成功藍圖，包括投資組合建立指導、定期分析師更新以及每月兩隻新股票的選擇。股票顧問的服務使回報率提高了四倍以上