下一次比特币减半要到 2028 年。在此期间可能会发生以下情况

每隔 10 分钟左右，比特币区块链上就会创建一个新的“区块”。比特币每 210,000 个区块就会减半一次，大致相当于每四年一次。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) halvings are among the most impactful events in the cryptocurrency’s history. Occurring roughly every four years, they form the crux of Bitcoin’s monetary design.

比特币（加密货币：BTC）减半是加密货币历史上最具影响力的事件之一。它们大约每四年发生一次，构成了比特币货币设计的关键。

Since Bitcoin’s launch in 2009, its halvings — which reduce the rewards for mining the cryptocurrency — have produced consistent and recognizable patterns. While past performance is no guarantee of future outcomes, the predictable nature of the halving intervals provides valuable data points for investors.

自 2009 年比特币推出以来，其减半（减少了开采加密货币的奖励）已经产生了一致且可识别的模式。虽然过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果，但减半间隔的可预测性为投资者提供了有价值的数据点。

With the next halving not due until 2028, understanding these patterns can illuminate potential developments in the Bitcoin market between now and then.

由于下一次减半要到 2028 年才会到来，了解这些模式可以阐明从现在到那时比特币市场的潜在发展。

What are Bitcoin halvings and why do they matter? Every 10 minutes or so, a new “block” is created on the Bitcoin blockchain. A Bitcoin halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, which roughly equates to once every four years. During these events, the rewards in new Bitcoin that miners receive for processing transactions and securing the network are halved, slowing the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation.

什么是比特币减半以及它们为何重要？每隔 10 分钟左右，比特币区块链上就会创建一个新的“区块”。比特币每 210,000 个区块就会减半一次，大致相当于每四年一次。在这些事件期间，矿工因处理交易和保护网络而获得的新比特币奖励减半，从而减慢了新比特币进入流通的速度。

When Bitcoin first launched in 2009, the block reward was 50 BTC. The first halving in 2012 lowered it to 25 BTC, followed by 12.5 BTC in 2016, and then to 6.25 BTC in 2020. This year’s halving reduced the reward to 3.125 BTC per block, bringing Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate to less than 1%. This process will continue until 2140, when the last Bitcoins are mined.

2009 年比特币首次推出时，区块奖励为 50 BTC。 2012 年第一次减半将其奖励降至 25 BTC，随后在 2016 年降至 12.5 BTC，然后在 2020 年降至 6.25 BTC。今年的减半将奖励降至每块 3.125 BTC，使比特币的年通胀率降至 1% 以下。这个过程将持续到 2140 年，届时最后一批比特币将被开采。

The halving is a deliberate feature of the Bitcoin protocol, designed to control inflation and ensure that the total supply of Bitcoin that can ever exist is limited to 21 million. By slowing the rate at which new Bitcoin is created, halvings put upward pressure on the price of Bitcoin, assuming demand remains constant or increases. Historically, this deflationary mechanism has been a major driver of Bitcoin’s price appreciation, as it introduces scarcity into the market.

减半是比特币协议的一个特意特征，旨在控制通货膨胀并确保比特币的总供应量限制在 2100 万个。假设需求保持不变或增加，减半会减缓新比特币的创建速度，从而给比特币的价格带来上行压力。从历史上看，这种通货紧缩机制一直是比特币价格升值的主要驱动力，因为它给市场带来了稀缺性。

What could happen before the next halving? So what could happen between now and the next halving predicted for 2028? Well, for now it looks like the market is in a bullish trend and hasn’t peaked yet. Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen compared Bitcoin’s price movements over the last three cycles in the chart below, and his analysis suggests that the current market still has room to grow.

下一次减半之前会发生什么？那么从现在到 2028 年预测的下一次减半会发生什么？嗯，目前看来市场处于看涨趋势，但尚未见顶。加密货币分析师 Benjamin Cowen 在下图中比较了比特币过去三个周期的价格走势，他的分析表明当前市场仍有增长空间。

If past trends continue, this bull market could peak sometime in 2025. While it is difficult to predict the exact price, it is reasonable to expect Bitcoin to see a significant increase from current levels.

如果过去的趋势继续下去，这次牛市可能会在 2025 年的某个时候达到顶峰。虽然很难预测确切的价格，但可以合理地预期比特币将在当前水平上大幅上涨。

But eventually, what goes up must come down. As euphoric as the peak Bitcoin bull market periods can be, painful and brutal crypto winters tend to set in just as quickly.

但最终，上涨的必然会下跌。尽管比特币牛市高峰期令人欣喜，但痛苦而残酷的加密货币冬天往往也会很快到来。

For example, during the last market cycle, Bitcoin dropped from a high of $68,000 to $34,000 in just two months, ultimately reaching a low of $16,000 in late 2022. This type of volatile price action has been consistent in previous cycles and could very well repeat itself as we approach 2026 and 2027.

例如，在上一个市场周期中，比特币在短短两个月内从 68,000 美元的高点跌至 34,000 美元，最终在 2022 年末跌至 16,000 美元的低点。这种波动的价格走势在之前的周期中一直是一致的，并且很可能会重复当我们临近 2026 年和 2027 年时。

But history shows us that periods of decline are often followed by new periods of growth. There is reason to believe that 2028 could be a year in which Bitcoin emerges from the crypto winter.

但历史告诉我们，衰退期之后往往会出现新的增长期。有理由相信，2028 年可能是比特币走出加密货币冬天的一年。

Navigating the Bitcoin Cycles

驾驭比特币周期

While no one can accurately predict the future, Bitcoin’s historical patterns are hard to ignore and offer valuable insights for investors. Understanding these cycles can help investors navigate Bitcoin’s volatility and recognize it as part of a broader trend toward higher prices over time.

虽然没有人能够准确预测未来，但比特币的历史模式很难被忽视，并为投资者提供了宝贵的见解。了解这些周期可以帮助投资者应对比特币的波动性，并将其视为随着时间推移价格上涨的更广泛趋势的一部分。

While the current bull market has likely not peaked yet, it will eventually give way to a bear market. But if there’s one thing history has taught us, it’s that these periods present opportunities to accumulate the cryptocurrency at lower prices, positioning investors for potential gains as the next halving approaches.

虽然当前的牛市可能尚未见顶，但最终将让位于熊市。但如果历史告诉我们一件事，那就是这些时期提供了以较低价格积累加密货币的机会，为投资者在下一次减半临近时获得潜在收益做好准备。

Should You Invest $1,000 in Bitcoin Now?

您现在应该投资 1,000 美元比特币吗？

Before buying Bitcoin stocks, you should consider the following:

在购买比特币股票之前，您应该考虑以下事项：

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor team of analysts has just identified what they think is the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Bitcoin wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could deliver monster returns in the years to come.

Motley Fool 股票顾问团队的分析师刚刚确定了他们认为投资者现在最值得购买的 10 只股票……而比特币不是其中之一。入选的 10 只股票可能会在未来几年带来巨额回报。

Think about when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you had $1,000 invested at the time of our recommendation, you would have $630,099!*

想想 Nvidia 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日发布此列表时......如果您在我们推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，您将获得 630,099 美元！*

Stock Advisor offers investors an easy-to-follow blueprint for success, including portfolio building guidance, regular analyst updates, and two new stock picks each month. The Stock Advisor has service more than quadrupled the return of

股票顾问为投资者提供了一个易于遵循的成功蓝图，包括投资组合构建指导、定期分析师更新以及每月两只新股票的选择。股票顾问的服务使回报率提高了四倍以上