比特幣減半將近：礦業執行長預測市場影響

The so-called Bitcoin halving is nearly upon us.

所謂的比特幣減半即將到來。

Once it occurs, presumably later this month, the rate at which bitcoins are minted will be reduced.

一旦發生，大概在本月晚些時候，比特幣的鑄造速度將會降低。

Benzinga asked the CEOs of three mining companies — Riot Platforms Inc RIOT, Marathon Digital Holdings Inc MARA, and Hut 8 Corp HUT — what their thoughts are concerning this preordained event. Here’s what they had to say.

Benzinga 詢問了三家礦業公司（Riot Platforms Inc RIOT、Marathon Digital Holdings Inc MARA 和 Hut 8 Corp HUT）的首席執行官，他們對這一注定的事件有何看法。這是他們不得不說的話。

See Also: Hold On To Your Dogecoin — It’ll Be The ‘First Meme Coin To Reach $100B Market Cap

另請參閱：保留你的狗狗幣——它將成為“第一個達到 100B 市值的 Meme 幣”

Riot

“The Halving immediately cuts revenue in half while doubling costs for miners,” Riot CEO Jason Les says. “Depending on your power cost and machine efficiency, some miners will be uneconomic and will be forced to shut off, decreasing network hash rate by at least 5% and possibly more depending on the trend for BTC prices.”

Riot 執行長 Jason Les 表示：“減半立即將收入削減一半，同時使礦工的成本增加一倍。” “根據電力成本和機器效率，一些礦機將變得不經濟，將被迫關閉，從而使網路哈希率降低至少 5%，甚至可能更多，具體取決於 BTC 價格的趨勢。”

As the network hash rate decreases, low-cost miners will benefit as their share of the network and rewards increases without expanding more capital or energy, he adds.

他補充說，隨著網路哈希率的下降，低成本礦工將受益於他們的網路份額和獎勵的增加，而無需擴大更多的資本或能源。

The Castle Rock, Colorado-based company, formerly Riot Blockchain, develops, operates and supports blockchain technologies. And, according to Les, it has been planning for the Halving for several years.

這家總部位於科羅拉多州 Castle Rock 的公司（前身為 Riot Blockchain）開發、營運和支援區塊鏈技術。據 Les 稱，它已經為減半計劃了好幾年了。

“We continued building infrastructure during the last downturn, and are positioned to grow our self mining hash rate by over 150% this year. As such, Riot is one of the few, if not only public miner that will exit this year mining more BTC daily than it was prior to the halving,” he says. “Coupled with our unique power strategy in Texas, which resulted in power costs of 2.2 cents per Kwh in 2023. Riot is positioned as the lowest-cost producer in the space. This will allow us to run all machines post-halving and continue to have positive gross margins post-halving.“

「在上次經濟低迷時期，我們繼續建設基礎設施，並準備今年將自挖礦算力提高 150% 以上。因此，Riot 是為數不多的（即使不是唯一的）今年將退出的公共礦商之一，每天開採的比特幣數量比減半之前要多，」他說。 「再加上我們在德州獨特的電力策略，到 2023 年，電力成本將達到每千瓦時 2.2 美分。Riot 被定位為該領域成本最低的生產商。這將使我們能夠在減半後運行所有機器，並在減半後繼續保持正的毛利率。”

Overall BTC price: Post-halving, Bitcoin tends to begin or extend the bull market cycle, Les says. Prior data suggests that BTC price should double prior highs ~18 months post-halving. Riot believes the approval of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has brought price discovery forward by about six months. Expect BTC to continue to trend higher post-halving as demand outstrips supply.

比特幣整體價格：萊斯表示，減半後，比特幣往往會開始或延長牛市週期。先前的數據表明，減半後 18 個月左右，BTC 價格應該會比之前高點翻一番。 Riot 認為，現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的批准已將價格發現提前了約六個月。由於需求超過供應，預計比特幣在減半後將繼續走高。

See Also: Bitcoin’s Hashrate Up 80% From Last Year As Mining Profitability Improves, Says JPMorgan

另請參閱：摩根大通表示，隨著挖礦獲利能力的提高，比特幣的算力比去年增長了 80%

Marathon Digital

Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel predicts “Marginal cost to mine BTC will increase with energy spend required doubling. “

Marathon Digital Marathon Digital 執行長 Fred Thiel 預測：「隨著所需能源支出加倍，開採 BTC 的邊際成本將會增加。 “

At current prices, most miners will still be profitable post-halving “unless their fleet of rigs has an energy efficiency above 30J/TH,” he adds.

他補充道，以目前的價格，大多數礦商在減半後仍將獲利，「除非他們的礦機群的能源效率高於 30J/TH」。

Marathon's fleet has an average energy efficiency of ~24J/TH (declining further over the balance of the year with the addition of even more efficient miners). That’s “well below the threshold,” Thiel adds.

Marathon 車隊的平均能源效率約為 24J/TH（隨著效率更高的礦工的加入，這一年剩餘時間進一步下降）。泰爾補充道，這「遠低於閾值」。

Las Vegas-based Marathon has recently taken ownership of over 50% of its mining capacity. As a result, it reduced operating costs at the owned and operated sites significantly by eliminating the third-party operators.

總部位於拉斯維加斯的 Marathon 最近獲得了超過 50% 的採礦能力。結果，透過消除第三方營運商，它顯著降低了自有和營運站點的營運成本。

Overall BTC price: “Bitcoin ETFs have accelerated the price surge post halving by [six] months in the form of the demand shock that seems to continue unabated. Continued limited liquidity and supply decrease resulting from the halving will likely cause continued upward price pressure on BTC,” Thiel says. “According to many experts, institutions have yet to buy ETF shares in any volume. And if and when that starts, the demand will likely keep pushing [the] price upwards and will provide a stable floor.”

比特幣整體價格：「比特幣 ETF 以需求衝擊的形式加速了減半後的價格飆升，這種衝擊似乎有增無減。減半導致的流動性持續有限和供應減少可能會給 BTC 帶來持續的價格上漲壓力。」Thiel 說。 「許多專家表示，機構尚未購買任何數量的 ETF 股票。如果這種情況開始，需求可能會繼續推高價格，並提供一個穩定的底線。”

See Also: Senator Elizabeth Warren Says Regulating Stablecoins ‘Could Amplify Risks’

另請參閱：參議員伊麗莎白沃倫表示，監管穩定幣“可能會放大風險”

Hut8 Mining

“We view the halving as a great opportunity to double down on growth and strengthen our competitive position,” Hut8 CEO Asher Genoot says. “We have prepared for the halving with a comprehensive restructuring of the business and focus on being a low-cost operator.”

Hut8 Mining 「我們認為減半是一個絕佳的機會，可以加倍成長並增強我們的競爭地位，」Hut8 執行長 Asher Genoot 表示。 “我們已經為減半做好了準備，對業務進行全面重組，專注於成為低成本運營商。”

Hut8 mines “only when it is profitable” using its proprietary software. The Miami-based company also maintains a strong balance sheet with more than 9,100 BTC.

Hut8 使用其專有軟體「僅在獲利時」進行挖礦。這家總部位於邁阿密的公司也保持著強勁的資產負債表，擁有超過 9,100 比特幣。

“That enables us to maintain stability while investing in growth,” Genoot adds. “Post-halving, as inefficient operators shut down and distressed assets come to market at attractive valuations, we see an opportunity to cement our position and scale through the downturn.”

「這使我們能夠在投資成長的同時保持穩定，」吉努特補充道。 “減半後，隨著效率低下的運營商關閉，不良資產以有吸引力的估值進入市場，我們看到了在經濟低迷時期鞏固我們地位和規模的機會。”

Now Read: Why Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse Predicts A $5 Trillion Crypto Market Cap In 2024

現在閱讀：為什麼 Ripple 執行長 Brad Garlinghouse 預測 2024 年加密貨幣市值將達到 5 兆美元

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