比特币减半临近：矿业首席执行官预测市场影响

The so-called Bitcoin halving is nearly upon us.

所谓的比特币减半即将到来。

Once it occurs, presumably later this month, the rate at which bitcoins are minted will be reduced.

一旦发生，大概在本月晚些时候，比特币的铸造速度将会降低。

Benzinga asked the CEOs of three mining companies — Riot Platforms Inc RIOT, Marathon Digital Holdings Inc MARA, and Hut 8 Corp HUT — what their thoughts are concerning this preordained event. Here’s what they had to say.

Benzinga 询问了三个矿业公司（Riot Platforms Inc RIOT、Marathon Digital Holdings Inc MARA 和 Hut 8 Corp HUT）的首席执行官，他们对这一注定的事件有何看法。这是他们不得不说的。

See Also: Hold On To Your Dogecoin — It’ll Be The ‘First Meme Coin To Reach $100B Market Cap

另请参阅：保留你的狗狗币——它将成为“第一个达到 100B 市值的 Meme 币”

Riot

“The Halving immediately cuts revenue in half while doubling costs for miners,” Riot CEO Jason Les says. “Depending on your power cost and machine efficiency, some miners will be uneconomic and will be forced to shut off, decreasing network hash rate by at least 5% and possibly more depending on the trend for BTC prices.”

Riot 首席执行官杰森·莱斯 (Jason Les) 表示：“减半立即将收入削减一半，同时使矿工的成本增加一倍。” “根据电力成本和机器效率，一些矿机将变得不经济，将被迫关闭，从而使网络哈希率降低至少 5%，甚至可能更多，具体取决于 BTC 价格的趋势。”

As the network hash rate decreases, low-cost miners will benefit as their share of the network and rewards increases without expanding more capital or energy, he adds.

他补充说，随着网络哈希率的下降，低成本矿工将受益于他们的网络份额和奖励的增加，而无需扩大更多的资本或能源。

The Castle Rock, Colorado-based company, formerly Riot Blockchain, develops, operates and supports blockchain technologies. And, according to Les, it has been planning for the Halving for several years.

这家总部位于科罗拉多州 Castle Rock 的公司（前身为 Riot Blockchain）开发、运营和支持区块链技术。据 Les 称，它已经为减半计划了好几年了。

“We continued building infrastructure during the last downturn, and are positioned to grow our self mining hash rate by over 150% this year. As such, Riot is one of the few, if not only public miner that will exit this year mining more BTC daily than it was prior to the halving,” he says. “Coupled with our unique power strategy in Texas, which resulted in power costs of 2.2 cents per Kwh in 2023. Riot is positioned as the lowest-cost producer in the space. This will allow us to run all machines post-halving and continue to have positive gross margins post-halving.“

“在上次经济低迷时期，我们继续建设基础设施，并准备今年将自挖矿算力提高 150% 以上。因此，Riot 是为数不多的（即使不是唯一的）今年将退出的公共矿商之一，每天开采的比特币数量比减半之前要多，”他说。 “再加上我们在德克萨斯州独特的电力战略，到 2023 年，电力成本将达到每千瓦时 2.2 美分。Riot 被定位为该领域成本最低的生产商。这将使我们能够在减半后运行所有机器，并在减半后继续保持正的毛利率。”

Overall BTC price: Post-halving, Bitcoin tends to begin or extend the bull market cycle, Les says. Prior data suggests that BTC price should double prior highs ~18 months post-halving. Riot believes the approval of the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has brought price discovery forward by about six months. Expect BTC to continue to trend higher post-halving as demand outstrips supply.

比特币整体价格：莱斯表示，减半后，比特币往往会开始或延长牛市周期。先前的数据表明，减半后 18 个月左右，BTC 价格应该会比之前高点翻一番。 Riot 认为，现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的批准已将价格发现提前了约六个月。由于需求超过供应，预计比特币在减半后将继续走高。

See Also: Bitcoin’s Hashrate Up 80% From Last Year As Mining Profitability Improves, Says JPMorgan

另请参阅：摩根大通表示，随着挖矿盈利能力的提高，比特币的算力比去年增长了 80%

Marathon Digital

Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel predicts “Marginal cost to mine BTC will increase with energy spend required doubling. “

Marathon Digital Marathon Digital 首席执行官 Fred Thiel 预测：“随着所需能源支出加倍，开采 BTC 的边际成本将会增加。 “

At current prices, most miners will still be profitable post-halving “unless their fleet of rigs has an energy efficiency above 30J/TH,” he adds.

他补充道，按照目前的价格，大多数矿商在减半后仍将盈利，“除非他们的矿机群的能源效率高于 30J/TH”。

Marathon's fleet has an average energy efficiency of ~24J/TH (declining further over the balance of the year with the addition of even more efficient miners). That’s “well below the threshold,” Thiel adds.

Marathon 车队的平均能源效率约为 24J/TH（随着效率更高的矿工的加入，这一年剩余时间进一步下降）。泰尔补充道，这“远低于阈值”。

Las Vegas-based Marathon has recently taken ownership of over 50% of its mining capacity. As a result, it reduced operating costs at the owned and operated sites significantly by eliminating the third-party operators.

总部位于拉斯维加斯的 Marathon 最近获得了超过 50% 的采矿能力。结果，通过消除第三方运营商，它显着降低了自有和运营站点的运营成本。

Overall BTC price: “Bitcoin ETFs have accelerated the price surge post halving by [six] months in the form of the demand shock that seems to continue unabated. Continued limited liquidity and supply decrease resulting from the halving will likely cause continued upward price pressure on BTC,” Thiel says. “According to many experts, institutions have yet to buy ETF shares in any volume. And if and when that starts, the demand will likely keep pushing [the] price upwards and will provide a stable floor.”

比特币整体价格：“比特币 ETF 以需求冲击的形式加速了减半后的价格飙升，这种冲击似乎有增无减。减半导致的流动性持续有限和供应减少可能会给 BTC 带来持续的价格上涨压力。”Thiel 说道。 “许多专家表示，机构尚未购买任何数量的 ETF 股票。如果这种情况开始，需求可能会继续推高价格，并提供一个稳定的底线。”

See Also: Senator Elizabeth Warren Says Regulating Stablecoins ‘Could Amplify Risks’

另请参阅：参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦表示，监管稳定币“可能会放大风险”

Hut8 Mining

“We view the halving as a great opportunity to double down on growth and strengthen our competitive position,” Hut8 CEO Asher Genoot says. “We have prepared for the halving with a comprehensive restructuring of the business and focus on being a low-cost operator.”

Hut8 Mining “我们认为减半是一个绝佳的机会，可以加倍增长并增强我们的竞争地位，”Hut8 首席执行官 Asher Genoot 表示。 “我们已经为减半做好了准备，对业务进行全面重组，专注于成为低成本运营商。”

Hut8 mines “only when it is profitable” using its proprietary software. The Miami-based company also maintains a strong balance sheet with more than 9,100 BTC.

Hut8 使用其专有软件“仅在盈利时”进行挖矿。这家总部位于迈阿密的公司还保持着强劲的资产负债表，拥有超过 9,100 比特币。

“That enables us to maintain stability while investing in growth,” Genoot adds. “Post-halving, as inefficient operators shut down and distressed assets come to market at attractive valuations, we see an opportunity to cement our position and scale through the downturn.”

“这使我们能够在投资增长的同时保持稳定，”吉努特补充道。 “减半后，随着效率低下的运营商关闭，不良资产以有吸引力的估值进入市场，我们看到了在经济低迷时期巩固我们地位和规模的机会。”

Now Read: Why Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse Predicts A $5 Trillion Crypto Market Cap In 2024

现在阅读：为什么 Ripple 首席执行官 Brad Garlinghouse 预测 2024 年加密货币市值将达到 5 万亿美元

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