比特幣和以太坊期權到期

比特幣和以太坊本週尚未出現重大價格走勢。然而，週五即將到期的名義未平倉合約超過 40%

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) options traders are bracing for a massive expiration on Friday that could set the tone for the two leading cryptocurrencies in the coming week.

比特幣（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）選擇權交易員正準備迎接週五的大規模到期，這可能為未來一周這兩種主要加密貨幣定下基調。

Over 40% of the notional open interest in BTC and ETH on crypto options and futures trading platform Deribit is set to expire on Friday at 8:00 AM UTC, amounting to $6.68 billion in BTC options and $3.5 billion in ETH options, Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers told CoinDesk in an interview.

Deribit 執行長Luuk 表示，加密選擇權和期貨交易平台Deribit 超過40% 的BTC 和ETH 名義未平倉合約將於世界標準時間週五上午8:00 到期，其中BTC 選擇權價值66.8 億美元，ETH 選擇權價值35 億美元Strijers 在接受 CoinDesk 採訪時說道。

“This time around, 25% of the options are expiring in the money, which means that options holders are set to close out with a profitable outcome,” said Strijers, adding that the options open interest is lower compared to the past few months.

Strijers 表示：「這次，25% 的選擇權在價內到期，這意味著選擇權持有者將在平倉時獲得獲利。」他補充說，與過去幾個月相比，選擇權未平倉合約有所下降。

According to Strijers, the options expirations – particularly July 5 for ETH and July 12 for BTC – could catalyze a positive shift in the two cryptocurrencies’ ongoing short-term bearish market sentiment.

據 Strijers 稱，期權到期日——尤其是 ETH 的 7 月 5 日和 BTC 的 7 月 12 日——可能會促使這兩種加密貨幣持續的短期看跌市場情緒發生積極轉變。

“Both markets have been trending down in the past weeks, and traders have been showing a preference for short-dated options, which could amplify the directional moves in either case,” he said.

他表示：“過去幾週，兩個市場都呈下跌趨勢，交易員一直表現出對短期期權的偏好，這可能會放大兩種情況下的方向性走勢。”

“We've also seen a sell-off in the options markets over the past two weeks, which might indicate that options traders are expecting a downside move in the underlying,” Strijers added.

「過去兩週我們也看到選擇市場出現拋售，這可能表明選擇權交易者預計標的資產將出現下行走勢，」Strijers 補充道。

Highlighting the bullish case

突出看漲情況

Gustavo Faria, author and analyst at CryptoQuant, also presented some factors supporting the bullish narrative on Friday.

CryptoQuant 的作家兼分析師 Gustavo Faria 週五也提出了一些支持看漲敘述的因素。

“One of the primary driving elements in the current trajectory of BTC and altcoins has been the US macroeconomic data,” Faria told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “The uncertainty about the future of American monetary policy seems to be a key influence on investors' risk appetite.”

Faria 在 Telegram 訊息中告訴 CoinDesk：“比特幣和山寨幣當前走勢的主要驅動因素之一是美國宏觀經濟數據。” “美國貨幣政策未來的不確定性似乎是影響投資者風險偏好的關鍵因素。”

The US government will release its latest gross domestic product (GDP) and employment data on Thursday. On Friday, the administration will follow up with inflation data on personal consumption expenditures (PCE). All of these could shape up market sentiment in the short run.

美國政府將於週四發布最新的國內生產毛額（GDP）和就業數據。週五，政府將跟進個人消費支出（PCE）的通膨數據。所有這些都可能在短期內塑造市場情緒。

“Externally, it seems like a bullish setup, but we'll have to see how the market reacts to the macroeconomic news and the options expirations,” Faria said.

「從外部來看，這似乎是一個看漲的設置，但我們必須看看市場對宏觀經濟消息和期權到期的反應，」法裡亞說。

“Internally, however, Bitcoin's structure presents signs of a possible local bottom,” he added. “Open interest in the BTC market has declined by around $3 billion in the past three weeks, which has been dominated by long liquidations. At the same time, the funding rates for perpetual contracts have settled near zero.”

「然而，從內部來看，比特幣的結構呈現出可能出現局部底部的跡象，」他補充道。 「過去三週，BTC 市場的未平倉合約減少了約 30 億美元，主要是多頭清算。同時，永續合約的融資利率已接近零。

“These signs of a greater balance between buyers and sellers are creating a healthier and less overly optimistic price structure,” Faria said. “Furthermore, BTC just tapped the realized price of short-term holders (STHs) at $62.6K.”

法裡亞說：“這些表明買家和賣家之間更加平衡的跡象正在創造一個更健康、不太樂觀的價格結構。” “此外，BTC 剛剛觸及短期持有者 (STH) 的已實現價格 6.26 萬美元。”

According to Faria, STHs are currently at a slightly negative average profitability, which is a point that has historically served as support for local corrections during uptrends.

Faria 表示，STH 目前的平均獲利能力略為負值，這一點歷來為上升趨勢期間的局部調整提供支撐。