比特币和以太坊期权到期

比特币和以太坊本周尚未出现重大价格走势。然而，周五即将到期的名义持仓量超过 40%

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) options traders are bracing for a massive expiration on Friday that could set the tone for the two leading cryptocurrencies in the coming week.

比特币（BTC）和以太坊（ETH）期权交易员正准备迎接周五的大规模到期，这可能为未来一周这两种主要加密货币定下基调。

Over 40% of the notional open interest in BTC and ETH on crypto options and futures trading platform Deribit is set to expire on Friday at 8:00 AM UTC, amounting to $6.68 billion in BTC options and $3.5 billion in ETH options, Deribit CEO Luuk Strijers told CoinDesk in an interview.

Deribit 首席执行官 Luuk 表示，加密期权和期货交易平台 Deribit 超过 40% 的 BTC 和 ETH 名义未平仓合约将于世界标准时间周五上午 8:00 到期，其中 BTC 期权价值 66.8 亿美元，ETH 期权价值 35 亿美元Strijers 在接受 CoinDesk 采访时说道。

“This time around, 25% of the options are expiring in the money, which means that options holders are set to close out with a profitable outcome,” said Strijers, adding that the options open interest is lower compared to the past few months.

Strijers 表示：“这一次，25% 的期权在价内到期，这意味着期权持有者将在平仓时获得盈利。”他补充说，与过去几个月相比，期权未平仓合约有所下降。

According to Strijers, the options expirations – particularly July 5 for ETH and July 12 for BTC – could catalyze a positive shift in the two cryptocurrencies’ ongoing short-term bearish market sentiment.

据 Strijers 称，期权到期日——尤其是 ETH 的 7 月 5 日和 BTC 的 7 月 12 日——可能会促使这两种加密货币持续的短期看跌市场情绪发生积极转变。

“Both markets have been trending down in the past weeks, and traders have been showing a preference for short-dated options, which could amplify the directional moves in either case,” he said.

他表示：“过去几周，两个市场都呈下跌趋势，交易员一直表现出对短期期权的偏好，这可能会放大两种情况下的方向性走势。”

“We've also seen a sell-off in the options markets over the past two weeks, which might indicate that options traders are expecting a downside move in the underlying,” Strijers added.

“过去两周我们还看到期权市场出现抛售，这可能表明期权交易者预计标的资产将出现下行走势，”Strijers 补充道。

Highlighting the bullish case

突出看涨情况

Gustavo Faria, author and analyst at CryptoQuant, also presented some factors supporting the bullish narrative on Friday.

CryptoQuant 的作家兼分析师古斯塔沃·法里亚 (Gustavo Faria) 周五也提出了一些支持看涨叙述的因素。

“One of the primary driving elements in the current trajectory of BTC and altcoins has been the US macroeconomic data,” Faria told CoinDesk in a Telegram message. “The uncertainty about the future of American monetary policy seems to be a key influence on investors' risk appetite.”

Faria 在 Telegram 消息中告诉 CoinDesk：“比特币和山寨币当前走势的主要驱动因素之一是美国宏观经济数据。” “美国货币政策未来的不确定性似乎是影响投资者风险偏好的关键因素。”

The US government will release its latest gross domestic product (GDP) and employment data on Thursday. On Friday, the administration will follow up with inflation data on personal consumption expenditures (PCE). All of these could shape up market sentiment in the short run.

美国政府将于周四公布最新的国内生产总值（GDP）和就业数据。周五，政府将跟进个人消费支出（PCE）的通胀数据。所有这些都可能在短期内塑造市场情绪。

“Externally, it seems like a bullish setup, but we'll have to see how the market reacts to the macroeconomic news and the options expirations,” Faria said.

“从外部来看，这似乎是一个看涨的设置，但我们必须看看市场对宏观经济消息和期权到期的反应，”法里亚说。

“Internally, however, Bitcoin's structure presents signs of a possible local bottom,” he added. “Open interest in the BTC market has declined by around $3 billion in the past three weeks, which has been dominated by long liquidations. At the same time, the funding rates for perpetual contracts have settled near zero.”

“然而，从内部来看，比特币的结构呈现出可能出现局部底部的迹象，”他补充道。 “过去三周，BTC 市场的未平仓合约减少了约 30 亿美元，主要是多头清算。与此同时，永续合约的融资利率已接近于零。”

“These signs of a greater balance between buyers and sellers are creating a healthier and less overly optimistic price structure,” Faria said. “Furthermore, BTC just tapped the realized price of short-term holders (STHs) at $62.6K.”

法里亚说：“这些表明买家和卖家之间更加平衡的迹象正在创造一个更健康、不太乐观的价格结构。” “此外，BTC 刚刚触及短期持有者 (STH) 的已实现价格 6.26 万美元。”

According to Faria, STHs are currently at a slightly negative average profitability, which is a point that has historically served as support for local corrections during uptrends.

Faria 表示，STH 目前的平均盈利能力略为负值，这一点历来为上升趋势期间的局部调整提供支撑。