美國財政部警告將在兩週內觸及債務上限，比特幣下跌

財政部長珍妮特耶倫 (Janet Yellen) 表示，美國可能會在 1 月 14 日至 23 日之間的某個時間點達到合法允許的借款上限

The United States is expected to reach the maximum amount it is legally permitted to borrow sometime between January 14 and 23, according to a Friday letter sent by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson. The Treasury will then take "extraordinary measures" to reduce borrowing.

根據財政部長珍妮特耶倫週五致眾議院議長邁克約翰遜的信函，美國預計將在 1 月 14 日至 23 日期間達到法律允許的最大借款金額。財政部隨後將採取「非常措施」來減少借貸。

"I respectfully urge Congress to act to protect the full faith and credit of the United States," she wrote.

她寫道：“我恭敬地敦促國會採取行動，保護美國的全部信心和信用。”

In June 2023, Congress suspended the debt limit until January 1, 2025.

2023年6月，國會將債務上限暫停至2025年1月1日。

Before the letter was made public, risk assets declined. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all lost around 1% as U.S. equities fell. Bitcoin dropped as much as 4% from its intraday high.

在這封信公開之前，風險資產有所下降。隨著美國股市下跌，標準普爾 500 指數、那斯達克 100 指數和道瓊工業指數均下跌 1% 左右。比特幣較盤中高點下跌了 4%。

After the debt ceiling was raised on the past five occasions, the largest cryptocurrency has typically fallen or underperformed in the days that followed.

在過去五次提高債務上限後，最大的加密貨幣通常會在接下來的幾天下跌或表現不佳。

This December has been poor for bitcoin, which is down 3% and on track for its first red month since August.

今年 12 月的比特幣表現不佳，下跌了 3%，並有望迎來自 8 月以來的首個紅色月份。

The inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump will take place between the dates mentioned by Yellen, adding to the political and economic uncertainty.

當選總統唐納德·川普的就職典禮將在耶倫提到的日期之間舉行，這增加了政治和經濟的不確定性。

According to Zerohedge, Congress first established a debt limit of $45 billion in 1939 and has raised it 103 times as government spending continues to outpace tax receipts. The national debt of the United States now exceeds $36.2 trillion.

據 Zerohedge 稱，國會於 1939 年首次設定了 450 億美元的債務上限，隨著政府支出持續超過稅收收入，上限已經提高了 103 次。美國國債目前超過36.2兆美元。

Another factor influencing the bitcoin price is its similarity to prior cycles. BTC has been tracking the previous two cycles since the cycle low during the FTX collapse in November 2022.

影響比特幣價格的另一個因素是它與先前週期的相似性。自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩盤期間的周期低點以來，BTC 一直在追蹤前兩個週期。

At this point in the cycle, it is now just short of a 500% return, which is comparable to the two prior cycles at the same stage. It bodes ill for the bulls.

目前，該週期的回報率僅差 500%，與前兩個週期的同一階段相當。這對多頭來說是個壞兆頭。

Both the 2018-2022 and 2015-2018 cycles saw substantial drawdowns at this point in the cycle, which is denoted by the red box in the chart below. It's possible that Trump's inauguration date of January 20 will mark a bottom for bitcoin.

2018-2022 年和 2015-2018 年週期在週期的這一點上都出現了大幅下降，如下圖紅框所示。川普 1 月 20 日的就職日可能標誌著比特幣觸底。