美国财政部警告将在两周内触及债务上限，比特币下跌

财政部长珍妮特·耶伦 (Janet Yellen) 表示，美国可能会在 1 月 14 日至 23 日之间的某个时间点达到合法允许的借款上限

The United States is expected to reach the maximum amount it is legally permitted to borrow sometime between January 14 and 23, according to a Friday letter sent by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson. The Treasury will then take "extraordinary measures" to reduce borrowing.

根据财政部长珍妮特·耶伦周五致众议院议长迈克·约翰逊的信函，美国预计将在 1 月 14 日至 23 日期间达到法律允许的最大借款金额。财政部随后将采取“非常措施”来减少借贷。

"I respectfully urge Congress to act to protect the full faith and credit of the United States," she wrote.

她写道：“我恭敬地敦促国会采取行动，保护美国的全部信心和信用。”

In June 2023, Congress suspended the debt limit until January 1, 2025.

2023年6月，国会将债务上限暂停至2025年1月1日。

Before the letter was made public, risk assets declined. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all lost around 1% as U.S. equities fell. Bitcoin dropped as much as 4% from its intraday high.

在这封信公开之前，风险资产有所下降。随着美国股市下跌，标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克 100 指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均下跌 1% 左右。比特币较盘中高点下跌了 4%。

After the debt ceiling was raised on the past five occasions, the largest cryptocurrency has typically fallen or underperformed in the days that followed.

在过去五次提高债务上限后，最大的加密货币通常会在接下来的几天里下跌或表现不佳。

This December has been poor for bitcoin, which is down 3% and on track for its first red month since August.

今年 12 月的比特币表现不佳，下跌了 3%，并有望迎来自 8 月以来的首个红色月份。

The inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump will take place between the dates mentioned by Yellen, adding to the political and economic uncertainty.

当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的就职典礼将在耶伦提到的日期之间举行，这增加了政治和经济的不确定性。

According to Zerohedge, Congress first established a debt limit of $45 billion in 1939 and has raised it 103 times as government spending continues to outpace tax receipts. The national debt of the United States now exceeds $36.2 trillion.

据 Zerohedge 称，国会于 1939 年首次设定了 450 亿美元的债务上限，随着政府支出持续超过税收收入，该上限已经提高了 103 次。美国国债目前超过36.2万亿美元。

Another factor influencing the bitcoin price is its similarity to prior cycles. BTC has been tracking the previous two cycles since the cycle low during the FTX collapse in November 2022.

影响比特币价格的另一个因素是它与之前周期的相似性。自 2022 年 11 月 FTX 崩盘期间的周期低点以来，BTC 一直在跟踪前两个周期。

At this point in the cycle, it is now just short of a 500% return, which is comparable to the two prior cycles at the same stage. It bodes ill for the bulls.

目前，该周期的回报率仅差 500%，与前两个周期的同一阶段相当。这对多头来说是个坏兆头。

Both the 2018-2022 and 2015-2018 cycles saw substantial drawdowns at this point in the cycle, which is denoted by the red box in the chart below. It's possible that Trump's inauguration date of January 20 will mark a bottom for bitcoin.

2018-2022 年和 2015-2018 年周期在周期的这一点上都出现了大幅下降，如下图红框所示。特朗普 1 月 20 日的就职日可能会标志着比特币触底。