分析師表示，比特幣的主導地位不太可能恢復到 2020 年 12 月的 70% 水平

Into The Cryptoverse 創辦人 Benjamin Cowen 在 8 月 17 日接受 The David Lin Report 採訪時解釋。

A popular cryptocurrency analyst believes that Bitcoin ( BTC ) dominance will not return to the highs seen in the previous bull cycle, despite the asset's recent price rally.

一位受歡迎的加密貨幣分析師認為，儘管比特幣最近價格上漲，但其主導地位不會回到上一個牛市週期的高點。

“I don’t think it is going back up to 70%, personally. My target for Bitcoin dominance has been 60%,” Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen told The David Lin Report on Aug. 17.

「就我個人而言，我認為這一數字不會回升至 70%。我的比特幣主導地位的目標是 60%，」Into The Cryptoverse 創始人 Benjamin Cowen 於 8 月 17 日告訴 David Lin 報告。

Bitcoin dominance describes the ratio of BTC's market capitalization to the entire cryptocurrency market. During major “altcoin seasons,” such as the one seen in 2021, Bitcoin dominance tends to decline as traders shift capital into alternative cryptocurrencies. However, after “the breakdown,” BTC dominance usually begins to slowly return to its previous level.

比特幣主導地位描述了BTC市值佔整個加密貨幣市場的比例。在主要的「山寨幣季節」（例如 2021 年），隨著交易者將資金轉移到替代加密貨幣，比特幣的主導地位往往會下降。然而，在「崩潰」之後，比特幣的主導地位通常會開始慢慢恢復到先前的水平。

“Typically, what happens is that Bitcoin dominance will slowly go back up to where it was before the breakdown,” Cowen explained.

「通常情況下，比特幣的主導地位會慢慢回到崩潰之前的水平，」考恩解釋道。

However, this cycle is different, the analyst noted, adding that even when BTC reaches its peak dominance, it will not be the same as in the past.

然而，這位分析師指出，這個週期有所不同，並補充說，即使 BTC 達到其主導地位的頂峰，也不會與過去相同。

“I think there is a lot of room for Ethereum and many other cryptocurrencies,” Cowen said.

「我認為以太坊和許多其他加密貨幣有很大的空間，」考恩說。

The analyst added that he believes Bitcoin will “make that final move” towards 60% as early as September or as late as December.

這位分析師補充說，他相信比特幣最早將在 9 月或最遲 12 月“邁出最後一步”，邁向 60%。

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin dominance stands at 57.36% at the time of publication, up 4.25% since July 18.

根據 TradingView 的數據，截至發稿時，比特幣的主導地位為 57.36%，自 7 月 18 日以來上漲了 4.25%。

However, pseudonymous crypto trader Kaleo recently told their 643,700 X followers that Bitcoin dominance may have already peaked.

然而，匿名加密貨幣交易商 Kaleo 最近告訴他們的 643,700 X 粉絲，比特幣的主導地位可能已經達到頂峰。

“I feel fairly confident this is the cycle top for Bitcoin Dominance.” Kaleo stated in an Aug. 9 X post when Bitcoin dominance was around 57.50%.

“我相當有信心這是比特幣主導地位的周期頂部。” Kaleo 在 8 月 9 日的一篇貼文中表示，當時比特幣的主導地位約為 57.50%。

“Didn’t quite hit the 60% I was expecting - which is a good thing because that would have been painful.”

“沒有完全達到我預期的 60%——這是一件好事，因為那會很痛。”

They added that "the real" alt season begins when Bitcoin dominance falls below 50%.

他們補充說，當比特幣的主導地位跌至 50% 以下時，「真正的」山寨幣季節就開始了。

Traders often use Bitcoin dominance as an indicator to sell BTC and shift capital into alternative assets, such as altcoins.

交易者經常使用比特幣的主導地位作為出售比特幣並將資本轉移到替代資產（例如山寨幣）的指標。

In December 2020, Bitcoin dominance reached 70.23% before the asset's price surged around 220% to hit $61,283 in March 2021, just four months later, according to CoinMarketCap data.

根據 CoinMarketCap 的數據，2020 年 12 月，比特幣的主導地位達到 70.23%，而僅僅四個月後，該資產的價格就飆升了 220% 左右，在 2021 年 3 月達到 61,283 美元。

Cowen noted that Bitcoin dominance is “a bit trickier” in 2024 compared to 2019, when it peaked slightly above 71%, because the stablecoin market capitalization was much lower back then.

Cowen 指出，與 2019 年相比，2024 年比特幣的主導地位“有點棘手”，當時比特幣的峰值略高於 71%，因為當時穩定幣的市值要低得多。

“If you combine Bitcoin and Tether dominance, to calculate your ‘flight to safety dominance,’ that is sitting at 63%.” Cowen said, adding that this is the figure he prefers to use.

“如果你將比特幣和 Tether 的主導地位結合起來，來計算你的‘逃向安全主導地位’，那麼這一比例為 63%。”考恩補充道，這是他更喜歡使用的數字。

“That is still a very high level of flight to safety dominance, which is a good indicator that we are still in a bear market.”

“這仍然是轉向安全主導地位的非常高的水平，這是一個很好的指標，表明我們仍然處於熊市。”