分析师表示，比特币的主导地位不太可能恢复到 2020 年 12 月的 70% 水平

Into The Cryptoverse 创始人 Benjamin Cowen 在 8 月 17 日接受 The David Lin Report 采访时解释道。

A popular cryptocurrency analyst believes that Bitcoin ( BTC ) dominance will not return to the highs seen in the previous bull cycle, despite the asset's recent price rally.

一位受欢迎的加密货币分析师认为，尽管比特币最近价格上涨，但其主导地位不会回到上一个牛市周期的高位。

“I don’t think it is going back up to 70%, personally. My target for Bitcoin dominance has been 60%,” Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen told The David Lin Report on Aug. 17.

“就我个人而言，我认为这一比例不会回升至 70%。我的比特币主导地位的目标是 60%，”Into The Cryptoverse 创始人 Benjamin Cowen 于 8 月 17 日告诉 David Lin 报告。

Bitcoin dominance describes the ratio of BTC's market capitalization to the entire cryptocurrency market. During major “altcoin seasons,” such as the one seen in 2021, Bitcoin dominance tends to decline as traders shift capital into alternative cryptocurrencies. However, after “the breakdown,” BTC dominance usually begins to slowly return to its previous level.

比特币主导地位描述了BTC市值占整个加密货币市场的比例。在主要的“山寨币季节”（例如 2021 年），随着交易者将资金转移到替代加密货币，比特币的主导地位往往会下降。然而，在“崩溃”之后，比特币的主导地位通常会开始慢慢恢复到之前的水平。

“Typically, what happens is that Bitcoin dominance will slowly go back up to where it was before the breakdown,” Cowen explained.

“通常情况下，比特币的主导地位会慢慢回到崩溃之前的水平，”考恩解释道。

However, this cycle is different, the analyst noted, adding that even when BTC reaches its peak dominance, it will not be the same as in the past.

然而，这位分析师指出，这个周期有所不同，并补充说，即使 BTC 达到其主导地位的顶峰，也不会与过去相同。

“I think there is a lot of room for Ethereum and many other cryptocurrencies,” Cowen said.

“我认为以太坊和许多其他加密货币有很大的空间，”考恩说。

The analyst added that he believes Bitcoin will “make that final move” towards 60% as early as September or as late as December.

这位分析师补充说，他相信比特币最早将在 9 月或最迟 12 月“迈出最后一步”，迈向 60%。

According to TradingView data, Bitcoin dominance stands at 57.36% at the time of publication, up 4.25% since July 18.

根据 TradingView 的数据，截至发稿时，比特币的主导地位为 57.36%，自 7 月 18 日以来上涨了 4.25%。

However, pseudonymous crypto trader Kaleo recently told their 643,700 X followers that Bitcoin dominance may have already peaked.

然而，匿名加密货币交易商 Kaleo 最近告诉他们的 643,700 X 粉丝，比特币的主导地位可能已经达到顶峰。

“I feel fairly confident this is the cycle top for Bitcoin Dominance.” Kaleo stated in an Aug. 9 X post when Bitcoin dominance was around 57.50%.

“我相当有信心这是比特币主导地位的周期顶部。” Kaleo 在 8 月 9 日的一篇帖子中表示，当时比特币的主导地位约为 57.50%。

“Didn’t quite hit the 60% I was expecting - which is a good thing because that would have been painful.”

“没有完全达到我预期的 60%——这是一件好事，因为那会很痛苦。”

They added that "the real" alt season begins when Bitcoin dominance falls below 50%.

他们补充说，当比特币的主导地位跌至 50% 以下时，“真正的”山寨币季节就开始了。

Traders often use Bitcoin dominance as an indicator to sell BTC and shift capital into alternative assets, such as altcoins.

交易者经常使用比特币的主导地位作为出售比特币并将资本转移到替代资产（例如山寨币）的指标。

In December 2020, Bitcoin dominance reached 70.23% before the asset's price surged around 220% to hit $61,283 in March 2021, just four months later, according to CoinMarketCap data.

根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，2020 年 12 月，比特币的主导地位达到 70.23%，而仅仅四个月后，该资产的价格就飙升了 220% 左右，在 2021 年 3 月达到 61,283 美元。

Cowen noted that Bitcoin dominance is “a bit trickier” in 2024 compared to 2019, when it peaked slightly above 71%, because the stablecoin market capitalization was much lower back then.

Cowen 指出，与 2019 年相比，2024 年比特币的主导地位“有点棘手”，当时比特币的峰值略高于 71%，因为当时稳定币的市值要低得多。

“If you combine Bitcoin and Tether dominance, to calculate your ‘flight to safety dominance,’ that is sitting at 63%.” Cowen said, adding that this is the figure he prefers to use.

“如果你将比特币和 Tether 的主导地位结合起来，来计算你的‘逃向安全主导地位’，那么这一比例为 63%。”考恩补充道，这是他更喜欢使用的数字。

“That is still a very high level of flight to safety dominance, which is a good indicator that we are still in a bear market.”

“这仍然是转向安全主导地位的非常高的水平，这是一个很好的指标，表明我们仍处于熊市。”