比特幣的四年周期：死亡還是不斷演變？分析師介入

分析師正在爭論比特幣歷史上的四年周期是否仍然成立。隨著機構資金和 ETF 的發揮，舊模式是否已經過時了？

Bitcoin's got everyone talking. Is the four-year cycle a thing of the past, or is there still some life in the old dog? Analysts are all over the place, and here's the lowdown.

比特幣讓每個人都在談論。四年的周期已經成為過去，還是老狗還有生命力？分析師遍布各處，以下是真相。

The Four-Year Cycle: A Brief History

四年周期：簡史

For ages, the four-year halving cycle was Bitcoin's North Star. The theory was simple: Bitcoin peaks a year after mining rewards are cut in half, then crashes into a bear market. But times are changing.

多年來，四年的減半週期一直是比特幣的北極星。理論很簡單：比特幣在挖礦獎勵減半一年後達到頂峰，然後陷入熊市。但時代在變。

The Death of the Cycle?

循環的死亡？

Some analysts reckon the cycle is dead. Institutional money, derivatives, and ETF flows have thrown a wrench in the works. Messari's Matthew Nay thinks some traders are stuck in the past, clinging to the four-year narrative despite geopolitical chaos and trade tensions.

一些分析師認為這個週期已經結束。機構資金、衍生品和 ETF 流動給這一工作帶來了麻煩。 Messari 的 Matthew Nay 認為，儘管存在地緣政治混亂和貿易緊張局勢，一些交易員仍停留在過去，堅持四年的敘述。

Jonathan Morgan from Stocktwits agrees, saying recent selling was mechanical, driven by automated trading and outdated habits. People buy before the halving, then dump if it doesn't bounce. Wintermute's Jasper De Maere adds that miners' influence is now negligible compared to institutional volume.

Stocktwits 的喬納森·摩根對此表示同意，他表示最近的拋售是機械性的，是由自動化交易和過時的習慣驅動的。人們在減半之前買入，如果不反彈則拋售。 Wintermute 的 Jasper De Maere 補充說，與機構數量相比，礦工的影響力現在可以忽略不計。

Not So Fast...

沒那麼快...

But not everyone's ready to bury the cycle. Nay suggests Bitcoin could still surprise us with a new all-time high. Morgan thinks Bitcoin's growth isn't linear anymore, with ETFs, hedge funds, and global macro forces calling the shots.

但並不是每個人都準備好埋葬這個循環。奈伊表示，比特幣仍可能以新的歷史高點給我們帶來驚喜。摩根認為，比特幣的增長不再是線性的，ETF、對沖基金和全球宏觀力量在發號施令。

Mixed Signals and Short Squeezes

混合信號和空頭擠壓

Bitcoin's sending mixed signals. Traders are betting against it, with Open Interest (OI) up 30% and Funding Rates deeply negative. But long-term holders (LTHs) aren't selling. Supply on exchanges has dropped from 4.5 million to 3.1 million since January 2024. People are still buying, even at new highs, and some analysts think Bitcoin could hit $143K to $146K this cycle, according to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal.

比特幣發出了混合信號。交易員們正在做空它，未平倉合約 (OI) 上漲了 30%，資金利率嚴重為負。但長期持有者（LTH）並沒有出售。自 2024 年 1 月以來，交易所的供應量已從 450 萬枚下降至 310 萬枚。 Alphractal 首席執行官 Joao Wedson 表示，即使達到新高，人們仍在購買比特幣，一些分析師認為，本週期比特幣可能會達到 14.3 萬至 14.6 萬美元。

When funding gets this bearish and leverage piles in, it often makes way for a short squeeze. This would force bearish traders to buy back in.

當資金變得如此看跌並且槓桿不斷增加時，通常會為軋空讓路。這將迫使看跌交易者重新買入。

A New Kind of Volatility

一種新的波動性

Bitcoin's price has been all over the place, shaking retail investors and sparking debates among analysts. But the Bitcoin price prediction for 2025 remains bullish, with many forecasting a climb to the $125K level by year-end.

比特幣的價格一直在波動，震動了散戶投資者並引發了分析師的爭論。但對 2025 年比特幣價格的預測仍然看漲，許多人預測到年底將攀升至 12.5 萬美元的水平。

My Take: Evolving, Not Dead

我的看法：不斷發展，而不是消亡

I reckon the four-year cycle isn't dead, just evolving. The market's way more complex now, with global economics and Wall Street strategies playing a big role. For example, the recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs has brought in a whole new wave of institutional investors, changing the dynamics of supply and demand. It might not be as predictable as before, but history often rhymes, right?

我認為四年周期並沒有結束，只是在不斷發展。現在市場變得更加複雜，全球經濟和華爾街策略發揮著重要作用。例如，最近比特幣 ETF 的批准帶來了新一波的機構投資者，改變了供需動態。它可能不像以前那樣可預測，但歷史常常押韻，對嗎？

Final Thoughts

最後的想法

So, is Bitcoin's four-year cycle dead? Maybe not. It's more like it's grown up and moved to the city. The old rules don't apply, but the underlying rhythm is still there. Keep an eye on those ETFs, hedge funds, and global markets. They're the new conductors of the Bitcoin orchestra. Stay groovy!

那麼，比特幣的四年周期已經結束了嗎？也許不是。更像是長大了搬到了城市。舊規則不再適用，但基本節奏仍然存在。密切關注這些 ETF、對沖基金和全球市場。他們是比特幣管弦樂團的新指揮。保持時髦！