比特币的四年周期：死亡还是不断演变？分析师介入

分析师正在争论比特币历史上的四年周期是否仍然成立。随着机构资金和 ETF 的发挥，旧模式是否已经过时了？

Bitcoin's got everyone talking. Is the four-year cycle a thing of the past, or is there still some life in the old dog? Analysts are all over the place, and here's the lowdown.

比特币让每个人都在谈论。四年的周期已经成为过去，还是老狗还有生命力？分析师遍布各处，以下是真相。

The Four-Year Cycle: A Brief History

四年周期：简史

For ages, the four-year halving cycle was Bitcoin's North Star. The theory was simple: Bitcoin peaks a year after mining rewards are cut in half, then crashes into a bear market. But times are changing.

多年来，四年的减半周期一直是比特币的北极星。理论很简单：比特币在挖矿奖励减半一年后达到顶峰，然后陷入熊市。但时代在变。

The Death of the Cycle?

循环的死亡？

Some analysts reckon the cycle is dead. Institutional money, derivatives, and ETF flows have thrown a wrench in the works. Messari's Matthew Nay thinks some traders are stuck in the past, clinging to the four-year narrative despite geopolitical chaos and trade tensions.

一些分析师认为这个周期已经结束。机构资金、衍生品和 ETF 流动给这一工作带来了麻烦。 Messari 的 Matthew Nay 认为，尽管存在地缘政治混乱和贸易紧张局势，一些交易员仍停留在过去，坚持四年的叙述。

Jonathan Morgan from Stocktwits agrees, saying recent selling was mechanical, driven by automated trading and outdated habits. People buy before the halving, then dump if it doesn't bounce. Wintermute's Jasper De Maere adds that miners' influence is now negligible compared to institutional volume.

Stocktwits 的乔纳森·摩根对此表示同意，他表示最近的抛售是机械性的，是由自动化交易和过时的习惯驱动的。人们在减半之前买入，如果不反弹则抛售。 Wintermute 的 Jasper De Maere 补充说，与机构数量相比，矿工的影响力现在可以忽略不计。

Not So Fast...

没那么快...

But not everyone's ready to bury the cycle. Nay suggests Bitcoin could still surprise us with a new all-time high. Morgan thinks Bitcoin's growth isn't linear anymore, with ETFs, hedge funds, and global macro forces calling the shots.

但并不是每个人都准备好埋葬这个循环。奈伊表示，比特币仍可能以新的历史高点给我们带来惊喜。摩根认为，比特币的增长不再是线性的，ETF、对冲基金和全球宏观力量在发号施令。

Mixed Signals and Short Squeezes

混合信号和空头挤压

Bitcoin's sending mixed signals. Traders are betting against it, with Open Interest (OI) up 30% and Funding Rates deeply negative. But long-term holders (LTHs) aren't selling. Supply on exchanges has dropped from 4.5 million to 3.1 million since January 2024. People are still buying, even at new highs, and some analysts think Bitcoin could hit $143K to $146K this cycle, according to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal.

比特币发出了混合信号。交易员们正在做空它，未平仓合约 (OI) 上涨了 30%，资金利率严重为负。但长期持有者（LTH）并没有出售。自 2024 年 1 月以来，交易所的供应量已从 450 万枚下降至 310 万枚。Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 表示，即使达到新高，人们仍在购买比特币，一些分析师认为，本周期比特币可能会达到 14.3 万至 14.6 万美元。

When funding gets this bearish and leverage piles in, it often makes way for a short squeeze. This would force bearish traders to buy back in.

当资金变得如此看跌并且杠杆不断增加时，通常会为轧空让路。这将迫使看跌交易者重新买入。

A New Kind of Volatility

一种新的波动性

Bitcoin's price has been all over the place, shaking retail investors and sparking debates among analysts. But the Bitcoin price prediction for 2025 remains bullish, with many forecasting a climb to the $125K level by year-end.

比特币的价格一直在波动，震动了散户投资者并引发了分析师的争论。但对 2025 年比特币价格的预测仍然看涨，许多人预测到年底将攀升至 12.5 万美元的水平。

My Take: Evolving, Not Dead

我的看法：不断发展，而不是消亡

I reckon the four-year cycle isn't dead, just evolving. The market's way more complex now, with global economics and Wall Street strategies playing a big role. For example, the recent approval of Bitcoin ETFs has brought in a whole new wave of institutional investors, changing the dynamics of supply and demand. It might not be as predictable as before, but history often rhymes, right?

我认为四年周期并没有结束，只是在不断发展。现在市场变得更加复杂，全球经济和华尔街策略发挥着重要作用。例如，最近比特币 ETF 的批准带来了新一波的机构投资者，改变了供需动态。它可能不像以前那样可预测，但历史常常押韵，对吗？

Final Thoughts

最后的想法

So, is Bitcoin's four-year cycle dead? Maybe not. It's more like it's grown up and moved to the city. The old rules don't apply, but the underlying rhythm is still there. Keep an eye on those ETFs, hedge funds, and global markets. They're the new conductors of the Bitcoin orchestra. Stay groovy!

那么，比特币的四年周期已经结束了吗？也许不是。更像是长大了搬到了城市。旧规则不再适用，但基本节奏仍然存在。密切关注这些 ETF、对冲基金和全球市场。他们是比特币管弦乐团的新指挥。保持时髦！