比特幣的時鐘在滴答：在此週期中還剩100天以下嗎？

比特幣接近峰值嗎？分析歷史週期，ETF的影響以及潛在的價格飆升，以預測這種公牛何時可能結束。

Bitcoin's been on a wild ride, hasn't it? With prices dancing around $120,000, everyone's buzzing about where we are in this cycle. Could this bull market be topping out in the next three months? Let's dive into the data and see what's cooking.

比特幣一直在瘋狂旅行，不是嗎？隨著價格大約在120,000美元左右，每個人都對我們在這個週期中所處的位置嗡嗡作響。這個牛市在接下來的三個月內會脫穎而出嗎？讓我們研究數據，看看什麼是烹飪。

The 100-Day Countdown: Are We There Yet?

100天的倒計時：我們還在嗎？

Looking at Bitcoin's growth since the cycle low, we're roughly 975 days in. The 2017 bull market peaked around 1,068 days, and 2021 hit its high at 1,059 days. If history rhymes, we might have less than 100 days left before we hit the top. Spooky, right?

從周期低下的比特幣增長來看，我們大約需要975天。 2017年的牛市大約1,068天達到峰值，而2021天達到了1,059天的高點。如果歷史押韻，我們可能還剩不到100天才能達到頂峰。怪異，對嗎？

TradingView overlays, aligning the 2017 and 2021 cycles with today's price action, show both entered a parabolic phase around this time, leading to explosive price increases. Averaging those timings suggests a potential peak around October 19th. Mark your calendars, folks!

TradingView Overlays，將2017年和2021年的周期與當今的價格行動保持一致，這兩者都在這段時間進入了拋物線階段，從而導致價格上漲。平均這些時機表明10月19日左右可能達到頂峰。標記您的日曆，伙計們！

Is This Time Really Different?

這次真的不同了嗎？

Now, here's where things get interesting. The sheer volume of Bitcoin ETF inflows is a game-changer. Since January 2024, ETFs have absorbed over 1.2 million BTC. That's a massive chunk unlikely to return to the market anytime soon, seriously messing with the supply-demand balance.

現在，這是事情變得有趣的地方。比特幣ETF流入的龐大數量是改變遊戲規則的。自2024年1月以來，ETF吸收了超過120萬BTC。這是很大程度上很快返回市場的巨大部分，嚴重弄亂了供需平衡。

Plus, Bitcoin treasury companies are hoarding over 870,000 BTC, and sovereign holders have another 500,000+ BTC. Factor in potentially lost coins (conservatively estimated at 1.5 million), and you're looking at over 4 million BTC out of circulation – that's over 20% of the total circulating supply!

另外，比特幣國庫公司正在ho積超過870,000 BTC，主權持有人又有500,000多個BTC。因可能損失的硬幣（保守估計為150萬）的因素，並且您正在尋找超過400萬BTC的流通 - 佔循環總供應的20％以上！

Sure, every cycle has its

當然，每個週期都有其