比特币的时钟在滴答：在此周期中还剩100天以下吗？

比特币接近峰值吗？分析历史周期，ETF的影响以及潜在的价格飙升，以预测这种公牛何时可能结束。

Bitcoin's been on a wild ride, hasn't it? With prices dancing around $120,000, everyone's buzzing about where we are in this cycle. Could this bull market be topping out in the next three months? Let's dive into the data and see what's cooking.

比特币一直在疯狂旅行，不是吗？随着价格大约在120,000美元左右，每个人都对我们在这个周期中所处的位置嗡嗡作响。这个牛市在接下来的三个月内会脱颖而出吗？让我们研究数据，看看什么是烹饪。

The 100-Day Countdown: Are We There Yet?

100天的倒计时：我们还在吗？

Looking at Bitcoin's growth since the cycle low, we're roughly 975 days in. The 2017 bull market peaked around 1,068 days, and 2021 hit its high at 1,059 days. If history rhymes, we might have less than 100 days left before we hit the top. Spooky, right?

从周期低下的比特币增长来看，我们大约需要975天。2017年的牛市大约1,068天达到峰值，而2021天达到了1,059天的高点。如果历史押韵，我们可能还剩不到100天才能达到顶峰。怪异，对吗？

TradingView overlays, aligning the 2017 and 2021 cycles with today's price action, show both entered a parabolic phase around this time, leading to explosive price increases. Averaging those timings suggests a potential peak around October 19th. Mark your calendars, folks!

TradingView Overlays，将2017年和2021年的周期与当今的价格行动保持一致，这两者都在这段时间进入了抛物线阶段，从而导致价格上涨。平均这些时机表明10月19日左右可能达到顶峰。标记您的日历，伙计们！

Is This Time Really Different?

这次真的不同了吗？

Now, here's where things get interesting. The sheer volume of Bitcoin ETF inflows is a game-changer. Since January 2024, ETFs have absorbed over 1.2 million BTC. That's a massive chunk unlikely to return to the market anytime soon, seriously messing with the supply-demand balance.

现在，这是事情变得有趣的地方。比特币ETF流入的庞大数量是改变游戏规则的。自2024年1月以来，ETF吸收了超过120万BTC。这是很大程度上很快返回市场的巨大部分，严重弄乱了供需平衡。

Plus, Bitcoin treasury companies are hoarding over 870,000 BTC, and sovereign holders have another 500,000+ BTC. Factor in potentially lost coins (conservatively estimated at 1.5 million), and you're looking at over 4 million BTC out of circulation – that's over 20% of the total circulating supply!

另外，比特币国库公司正在ho积超过870,000 BTC，主权持有人又有500,000多个BTC。因可能损失的硬币（保守估计为150万）的因素，并且您正在寻找超过400万BTC的流通 - 占循环总供应的20％以上！

Sure, every cycle has its

当然，每个周期都有其