花旗集團的比特幣預測：到2025年到2025年 - 對嗎？

花旗集團預測比特幣將在2025年收盤時可能達到135,000美元。但是有可能嗎？讓我們分析花旗集團的比特幣預測，看看它是否有水。

Citigroup's Bitcoin Forecast: $135K by 2025 – Are They Right?

花旗集團的比特幣預測：到2025年到2025年 - 對嗎？

Wall Street giant Citigroup has thrown its hat into the Bitcoin forecasting ring, predicting a potential surge to $135,000 by the end of 2025. Is this just hype, or is there real substance to their analysis?

華爾街巨型花旗集團（Citigroup）已將其帽子扔進了比特幣預測環上，預測到2025年底的潛在浪費至135,000美元。這只是炒作，還是他們的分析有真正的實質？

Citigroup's Bullish Bitcoin Outlook

花旗集團的看漲比特幣前景

Citigroup's forecast, released in July 2025, hinges on several factors, primarily the continued strong inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. They also cite expanding user adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions as potential tailwinds. Their analysis includes a "bull case" scenario projecting a whopping $199,000 Bitcoin price if ETF inflows accelerate. A more cautious "bear case" estimates $64,000 if regulatory or economic challenges arise.

花旗集團（Citigroup）於2025年7月發布的預測，呈現了幾個因素，主要是持續的大量流入美國比特幣ETF。他們還引用了擴大用戶採用和有利的宏觀經濟狀況作為潛在的逆風。他們的分析包括一個“公牛案例”方案，如果ETF流入加速，則預測比特幣價格高達19,000美元。如果出現監管或經濟挑戰，則更加謹慎的“熊案”估計64,000美元。

The central forecast of $135,000 assumes consistent institutional buying and growth in ETF products, with roughly $15 billion in total ETF inflows for the year. Citigroup analysts Nathaniel Rupert and Alex Saunders emphasized that Bitcoin ETF flows are responsible for 41% of BTC’s return variation this year. Mainstream demand through regulated financial products has replaced on-chain indicators as the dominant signal.

135,000美元的核心預測假設ETF產品的機構購買和增長始終如一，一年中ETF的總計總額約為150億美元。花旗集團分析師納撒尼爾·魯珀特（Nathaniel Rupert）和亞歷克斯·桑德斯（Alex Saunders）強調，比特幣ETF流量是今年BTC返回變化的41％。通過受管制的金融產品的主流需求已取代鏈上指標作為主要信號。

The ETF Effect: A New Era for Bitcoin?

ETF效應：比特幣的新時代？

Citigroup's shift away from traditional Bitcoin valuation models like stock-to-flow and adoption-based metrics highlights a significant change in the market. They argue that these models are no longer reliable predictors, as ETF demand now dominates price action. The growing institutional interest, particularly through ETFs, has significantly influenced recent price shifts, with corporate treasuries also contributing to the demand surge.

花旗集團（Citigroup）從庫存到流量和基於收養的指標（基於採用的指標）的傳統比特幣估值模型轉變出來突出了市場的重大變化。他們認為這些模型不再是可靠的預測因子，因為ETF需求現在主導了價格行動。不斷增長的機構利益，特別是通過ETF，嚴重影響了最近的價格變化，公司國庫也有助於需求激增。

A Word of Caution (and Some Whale Watching)

一個謹慎的話（有些鯨魚看）

Of course, forecasts are just that – forecasts. The cryptocurrency market is notoriously volatile, and unforeseen events can quickly derail even the most sophisticated analysis. As Citigroup themselves noted, a reduction in ETF inflows could trigger significant price drops due to low market liquidity and slow token velocity. Recent activity, such as the movement of massive amounts of Bitcoin from early Satoshi-era wallets, serves as a reminder of the market's inherent uncertainties.

當然，預測只是預測。眾所周知，加密貨幣市場是動蕩的，即使是最複雜的分析也可能會迅速脫軌。正如花旗集團本人所指出的那樣，由於市場流動性低和令牌速度緩慢，ETF流入的減少可能會觸發大幅下降。最近的活動，例如早期Satoshi-era錢包中大量比特幣的運動，可以提醒市場固有的不確定性。

However, even these large movements don't necessarily signal a bearish trend. As observed in the market, institutions like BlackRock are continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, viewing such movements as potential restructuring or repositioning rather than panic selling.

但是，即使這些大型運動也不一定標誌著看跌趨勢。正如市場上觀察到的那樣，貝萊德這樣的機構正在繼續積累比特幣，將這些運動視為潛在的重組或重新定位而不是恐慌銷售。

So, What's the Takeaway?

那麼，收穫是什麼？

Citigroup's $135,000 Bitcoin forecast is undoubtedly optimistic, but it's grounded in the reality of increasing institutional adoption and the growing influence of ETFs. While risks remain, the integration of Bitcoin into mainstream finance suggests a more stable and potentially higher price trajectory. Ultimately, whether Bitcoin reaches Citigroup's target remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the game has changed, and ETFs are now a major player.

花旗集團（Citigroup）的135,000美元比特幣預測無疑是樂觀的，但它基於增加機構採用和ETF不斷增長的影響的現實。儘管仍然存在風險，但將比特幣整合到主流金融中表明，價格更穩定，價格較高。最終，比特幣是否達到花旗集團的目標還有待觀察，但是有一件事很明顯：遊戲已經改變，而ETF現在是主要玩家。

Will Bitcoin hit $135K? Only time will tell. But hey, even if it doesn't, at least we had fun speculating, right? Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm off to check my crypto portfolio...again!

比特幣會達到$ 135K嗎？只有時間會證明。但是，嘿，即使不是，至少我們很開心地猜測，對嗎？現在，如果您能原諒我，我要去檢查我的加密貨幣組合...再次！