比特幣公牛在薄冰上運行：在表面下方裂縫？

隨著長期持有人的出售，投機活動激增和關鍵指標，比特幣的集會面臨審查揭示了潛在的弱點。公牛運行是可持續的嗎？

Bitcoin Bull Run on Thin Ice: Cracks Beneath the Surface?

比特幣公牛在薄冰上運行：在表面下方裂縫？

Bitcoin's been on a wild ride, but beneath the surface, are there signs the bull run might be losing steam? Long-term holders are selling, speculative transactions are surging, and key metrics are flashing warning signs. Let's dive in.

比特幣一直在瘋狂騎行，但是在地面以下，是否有跡象表明牛跑可能會失去蒸汽？長期持有人正在出售，投機性交易正在激增，關鍵指標正在閃爍警告標誌。讓我們潛水。

Long-Term Holders Cashing Out: Smart Money Leaving the Party?

長期持有人兌現：聰明的錢離開聚會？

One of the biggest red flags is the increase in Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). This metric tracks the movement of coins held for a long time. The 30-day moving average has hit an 18-month high, indicating that long-term holders are selling into the rally. This behavior, especially near price peaks, often signals distribution – seasoned investors exiting while newer ones are still buying in.

最大的危險信號之一是銷毀硬幣日的增加（CDD）。該指標跟踪了長時間持有的硬幣的運動。 30天的移動平均水平達到了18個月的高點，表明長期持有人正在銷售集會。這種行為，尤其是接近價格的峰值，通常是發出發行的信號 - 經驗豐富的投資者，而新的投資者仍在購買。

This isn't just profit-taking; it suggests a concern that the rally is losing support from its strongest base. Without the backing of long-term holders, Bitcoin's price looks increasingly vulnerable.

這不僅僅是獲利；這表明集會失去其最強基礎的支持。沒有長期持有人的支持，比特幣的價格看起來越來越脆弱。

Speculative Activity: A House Built on Sand?

投機活動：建在沙子上的房子？

While transaction counts are up, a closer look reveals that much of this activity is fueled by speculative protocols like Runes. Bots and a small number of users are generating thousands of tiny transactions, inflating network data without adding real value or adoption. Active addresses, a more reliable indicator, have actually dropped to an 11-month low, despite the apparent surge in activity.

儘管交易計數不斷增加，但近距離的外觀表明，大部分活動都是由諸如符文這樣的投機方案所推動的。機器人和少數用戶正在生成數千筆小型交易，在不增加實際價值或採用的情況下誇大網絡數據。儘管活動明顯增加，但主動地址是一個更可靠的指標，實際上已經下降到11個月的低點。

This low-quality traffic masks underlying weaknesses, making the rally appear stronger than it actually is. It's like building a house on sand – impressive at first glance, but ultimately unsustainable.

這種低質量的交通掩蓋是基於弱點的，這使得集會顯得比實際強。這就像在沙子上蓋房子一樣 - 乍一看令人印象深刻，但最終是不可持續的。

Key Levels to Watch

觀看的關鍵水平

According to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson, the $117K zone has already proven to be a strong resistance. A breakout above $118.6K would confirm fresh buying momentum and potentially trigger another leg higher. However, losing $113.7K could expose the market to deeper downside, with $110K and even $104K-$100K as possible targets. These levels will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin sustains its rally or slides into a sharper correction.

根據Alphractal首席執行官Joao Wedson的說法，這一$ 117K的區域已經被證明是強烈的抵抗力。超過$ 118.6K的突破將確認新的購買勢頭，並有可能觸發另一隻腿更高。但是，損失113.7萬美元可能會使市場更深入，以11萬美元甚至104,000美元的目標，$ 104,000美元。這些水平對於確定比特幣是否維持其集會或滑動到更清晰的校正至關重要。

Valuation and Scarcity Metrics: Cracks in the Foundation

估值和稀缺指標：基金會的裂縫

The Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM), which compares market capitalization to network activity, has fallen, suggesting that Bitcoin's market value may be outpacing its network fundamentals. Similarly, the Stock-to-Flow ratio, a long-standing scarcity model, has also weakened, casting doubt on supply-driven narratives.

將市值與網絡活動進行比較的網絡價值與METCALFE比率（NVM）已經下降，這表明比特幣的市場價值可能超過其網絡基本面。同樣，長期以來的稀缺模型的股票與流量比也削弱了對供應驅動的敘述的懷疑。

Liquidity Flows: Uncertainty in the Air

流動性流：空氣中的不確定性

Exchange flows reveal shifting liquidity, with recent spot inflows suggesting cautious positioning. Sustained inflows increase available supply on exchanges, often linked to heightened selling pressure. The current netflow highlights short-term uncertainty, as liquidity is neither completely draining nor consolidating.

交換流揭示了流動性的轉移，最近的斑點流入表明定位謹慎。持續的流入增加了交流的可用供應，通常與銷售壓力加重有關。當前的NetFlow突出了短期不確定性，因為流動性既不完全排泄，也沒有鞏固。

Shiba Inu's Wild Ride: Following Bitcoin's Lead?

Shiba Inu的瘋狂旅程：遵循比特幣的領先？

Speaking of wild rides, Shiba Inu (SHIB) is closely correlated with Bitcoin's movements. If Bitcoin were to reach a $10 trillion market cap (hypothetically, of course), SHIB could potentially more than triple in price. However, this is purely speculative and depends heavily on Bitcoin's performance.

說到野生遊樂設施，Shiba Inu（Shib）與比特幣的動作密切相關。如果比特幣要達到10萬億美元的市值（當然是假設的），那麼Shib的價格可能超過三倍。但是，這純粹是投機性的，在很大程度上取決於比特幣的性能。

IOTA Miner: A Different Approach

IOTA礦工：另一種方法

While some investors are focused on speculation, others are turning to cloud mining platforms like IOTA Miner to generate stable returns. By leveraging computing power, users can earn passive income from digital assets, reducing the psychological pressure of market volatility. It's a different approach, but one that's gaining traction.

儘管一些投資者專注於猜測，但另一些投資者正在轉向IOTA礦工等雲挖掘平台，以產生穩定的回報。通過利用計算能力，用戶可以從數字資產中賺取被動收入，從而減少市場波動的心理壓力。這是一種不同的方法，但是正在吸引一種方法。

The Bottom Line

底線

Bitcoin's rally is facing some serious headwinds. Long-term holders are selling, speculative activity is masking underlying weaknesses, and key metrics are flashing warning signs. While the potential for further gains remains, it's crucial to approach the market with caution.

比特幣的集會面臨一些嚴重的逆風。長期持有人正在銷售，投機活動正在掩蓋潛在的弱點，而主要的指標正在閃爍警告信號。儘管仍然有進一步收益的潛力，但要謹慎地接近市場至關重要。

So, is this the end of the bull run? Only time will tell. But for now, it's wise to buckle up and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride. After all, in the world of crypto, anything can happen, right?

那麼，這是公牛奔跑的終結嗎？只有時間會證明。但是就目前而言，搭扣並為潛在顛簸的騎行做準備是明智的。畢竟，在加密貨幣世界中，可能會發生任何事情，對嗎？