比特币公牛在薄冰上运行：在表面下方裂缝？

随着长期持有人的出售，投机活动激增和关键指标，比特币的集会面临审查揭示了潜在的弱点。公牛运行是可持续的吗？

Bitcoin Bull Run on Thin Ice: Cracks Beneath the Surface?

比特币公牛在薄冰上运行：在表面下方裂缝？

Bitcoin's been on a wild ride, but beneath the surface, are there signs the bull run might be losing steam? Long-term holders are selling, speculative transactions are surging, and key metrics are flashing warning signs. Let's dive in.

比特币一直在疯狂骑行，但是在地面以下，是否有迹象表明牛跑可能会失去蒸汽？长期持有人正在出售，投机性交易正在激增，关键指标正在闪烁警告标志。让我们潜水。

Long-Term Holders Cashing Out: Smart Money Leaving the Party?

长期持有人兑现：聪明的钱离开聚会？

One of the biggest red flags is the increase in Coin Days Destroyed (CDD). This metric tracks the movement of coins held for a long time. The 30-day moving average has hit an 18-month high, indicating that long-term holders are selling into the rally. This behavior, especially near price peaks, often signals distribution – seasoned investors exiting while newer ones are still buying in.

最大的危险信号之一是销毁硬币日的增加（CDD）。该指标跟踪了长时间持有的硬币的运动。 30天的移动平均水平达到了18个月的高点，表明长期持有人正在销售集会。这种行为，尤其是接近价格的峰值，通常是发出发行的信号 - 经验丰富的投资者，而新的投资者仍在购买。

This isn't just profit-taking; it suggests a concern that the rally is losing support from its strongest base. Without the backing of long-term holders, Bitcoin's price looks increasingly vulnerable.

这不仅仅是获利；这表明集会失去其最强基础的支持。没有长期持有人的支持，比特币的价格看起来越来越脆弱。

Speculative Activity: A House Built on Sand?

投机活动：建在沙子上的房子？

While transaction counts are up, a closer look reveals that much of this activity is fueled by speculative protocols like Runes. Bots and a small number of users are generating thousands of tiny transactions, inflating network data without adding real value or adoption. Active addresses, a more reliable indicator, have actually dropped to an 11-month low, despite the apparent surge in activity.

尽管交易计数不断增加，但近距离的外观表明，大部分活动都是由诸如符文这样的投机方案所推动的。机器人和少数用户正在生成数千笔小型交易，在不增加实际价值或采用的情况下夸大网络数据。尽管活动明显增加，但主动地址是一个更可靠的指标，实际上已经下降到11个月的低点。

This low-quality traffic masks underlying weaknesses, making the rally appear stronger than it actually is. It's like building a house on sand – impressive at first glance, but ultimately unsustainable.

这种低质量的交通掩盖是基于弱点的，这使得集会显得比实际强。这就像在沙子上盖房子一样 - 乍一看令人印象深刻，但最终是不可持续的。

Key Levels to Watch

观看的关键水平

According to Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson, the $117K zone has already proven to be a strong resistance. A breakout above $118.6K would confirm fresh buying momentum and potentially trigger another leg higher. However, losing $113.7K could expose the market to deeper downside, with $110K and even $104K-$100K as possible targets. These levels will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin sustains its rally or slides into a sharper correction.

根据Alphractal首席执行官Joao Wedson的说法，这一$ 117K的区域已经被证明是强烈的抵抗力。超过$ 118.6K的突破将确认新的购买势头，并有可能触发另一只腿更高。但是，损失113.7万美元可能会使市场更深入，以11万美元甚至104,000美元的目标，$ 104,000美元。这些水平对于确定比特币是否维持其集会或滑动到更清晰的校正至关重要。

Valuation and Scarcity Metrics: Cracks in the Foundation

估值和稀缺指标：基金会的裂缝

The Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM), which compares market capitalization to network activity, has fallen, suggesting that Bitcoin's market value may be outpacing its network fundamentals. Similarly, the Stock-to-Flow ratio, a long-standing scarcity model, has also weakened, casting doubt on supply-driven narratives.

将市值与网络活动进行比较的网络价值与METCALFE比率（NVM）已经下降，这表明比特币的市场价值可能超过其网络基本面。同样，长期以来的稀缺模型的股票与流量比也削弱了对供应驱动的叙述的怀疑。

Liquidity Flows: Uncertainty in the Air

流动性流：空气中的不确定性

Exchange flows reveal shifting liquidity, with recent spot inflows suggesting cautious positioning. Sustained inflows increase available supply on exchanges, often linked to heightened selling pressure. The current netflow highlights short-term uncertainty, as liquidity is neither completely draining nor consolidating.

交换流揭示了流动性的转移，最近的斑点流入表明定位谨慎。持续的流入增加了交流的可用供应，通常与销售压力加重有关。当前的NetFlow突出了短期不确定性，因为流动性既不完全排泄，也没有巩固。

Shiba Inu's Wild Ride: Following Bitcoin's Lead?

Shiba Inu的疯狂旅程：遵循比特币的领先？

Speaking of wild rides, Shiba Inu (SHIB) is closely correlated with Bitcoin's movements. If Bitcoin were to reach a $10 trillion market cap (hypothetically, of course), SHIB could potentially more than triple in price. However, this is purely speculative and depends heavily on Bitcoin's performance.

说到野生游乐设施，Shiba Inu（Shib）与比特币的动作密切相关。如果比特币要达到10万亿美元的市值（当然是假设的），那么Shib的价格可能超过三倍。但是，这纯粹是投机性的，在很大程度上取决于比特币的性能。

IOTA Miner: A Different Approach

IOTA矿工：另一种方法

While some investors are focused on speculation, others are turning to cloud mining platforms like IOTA Miner to generate stable returns. By leveraging computing power, users can earn passive income from digital assets, reducing the psychological pressure of market volatility. It's a different approach, but one that's gaining traction.

尽管一些投资者专注于猜测，但另一些投资者正在转向IOTA矿工等云挖掘平台，以产生稳定的回报。通过利用计算能力，用户可以从数字资产中赚取被动收入，从而减少市场波动的心理压力。这是一种不同的方法，但是正在吸引一种方法。

The Bottom Line

底线

Bitcoin's rally is facing some serious headwinds. Long-term holders are selling, speculative activity is masking underlying weaknesses, and key metrics are flashing warning signs. While the potential for further gains remains, it's crucial to approach the market with caution.

比特币的集会面临一些严重的逆风。长期持有人正在销售，投机活动正在掩盖潜在的弱点，而主要的指标正在闪烁警告信号。尽管仍然有进一步收益的潜力，但要谨慎地接近市场至关重要。

So, is this the end of the bull run? Only time will tell. But for now, it's wise to buckle up and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride. After all, in the world of crypto, anything can happen, right?

那么，这是公牛奔跑的终结吗？只有时间会证明。但是就目前而言，搭扣并为潜在颠簸的骑行做准备是明智的。毕竟，在加密货币世界中，可能会发生任何事情，对吗？