比特幣[BTC]波動性仍然處於歷史低位

儘管比特幣[BTC]最近集結以達到新的歷史最高水平，但BTC的波動率仍處於歷史較低水平。

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to 200 Average True Range (ATR) as investors await key U.S. inflation data, according to CryptoQuant’s analyst Axel Adler.

根據CryptoQuant的分析師Axel Adler的說法，隨著投資者的關鍵通貨膨脹數據，比特幣的波動率已下降到200個平均真實範圍（ATR）。

At these levels, the market appears to be in “wait and see” mode, as on-chain activity slows.

在這些級別上，市場似乎處於“等待和看到”模式，因為鏈活動會減慢。

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to 200 Average True Range (ATR) as investors await key U.S. inflation data, according to CryptoQuant’s analyst Axel Adler.

根據CryptoQuant的分析師Axel Adler的說法，隨著投資者的關鍵通貨膨脹數據，比特幣的波動率已下降到200個平均真實範圍（ATR）。

According to the latest reports, Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to 200 ATR.

根據最新報告，比特幣的波動率下降到200 ATR。

The drop to a 200 ATR level suggests that Bitcoin’s price movements are currently calm, and volatility is reaching historical low levels.

下降到200 ATR的水平表明，比特幣的價格變動目前很平靜，波動率正在達到歷史較低水平。

At these levels, the market appears to be in “wait and see” mode, evidenced by slowing on-chain activity.

在這些層面上，市場似乎處於“等待和看到”模式，這可以減緩鏈上的活動。

Low volatility typically signals smaller, more stable price swings, and this often leads to reduced capital inflow—from both retail and institutional investors—as many choose to stay on the sidelines.

低波動率通常表示較小，價格波動更穩定，這通常會導致資本流入減少（從零售和機構投資者）中，許多人選擇留在場外。

This lack of momentum is also evident in Bitcoin’s Mean Coin Age, which climbed steadily and sat at a yearly high of 1.617k, at press time. This indicates that coins are staying untouched as more investors shift toward HODLing.

缺乏勢頭在比特幣的平均硬幣時代也很明顯，後者穩步攀升，並在發稿時坐著每年1.617k的高點。這表明，隨著越來越多的投資者轉向霍德林，硬幣一直保持不變。

As this holding trend strengthens, the Mean Coin dollar Age is approaching 18 million, further reinforcing the long-term sentiment.

隨著這種持有趨勢的增強，平均硬幣年齡接近1800萬，進一步加強了長期情緒。

At the same time, investors are also reducing leverage, particularly in the futures market, signaling a more cautious and risk-averse approach as they sit tight and wait for clearer momentum.

同時，投資者還降低了槓桿率，尤其是在期貨市場上，當他們緊緊坐著並等待更清晰的動力時，預示著更加謹慎和規避風險的方法。

Why are investors taking a step back?

為什麼投資者退後一步？

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin investors are currently in wait-and-watch mode ahead of the U.S. inflation data release.

根據CryptoQuant的說法，比特幣投資者目前處於通貨膨脹數據發布之前的等待觀察模式。

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled for release today, June 11, 2025.

勞工統計局的消費者價格指數（CPI）報告計劃於2025年6月11日發布。

This announcement has sparked widespread speculation about the potential market impact.

這一公告引發了人們對潛在市場影響的廣泛猜測。

Reuters forecasts that CPI will rise by 0.2% for May, marking a 2.5% increase year-over-year. Meanwhile, Core CPI—which excludes food and energy—is expected to climb 0.3% for the month, with a 2.9% annual increase.

路透社預測，5月CPI將上升0.2％，標誌著同比增長2.5％。同時，核心CPI（不包括食品和能源）預計將在本月上升0.3％，每年增長2.9％。

The upcoming CPI data may show an increase, partly due to Liberation Day tariffs imposed in April. Since many retailers had still been selling pre-tariff inventory, those earlier price hikes likely didn’t affect April’s figures.

即將到來的CPI數據可能顯示出增加，部分原因是4月份徵收的解放日關稅。由於許多零售商仍在出售宣傳前的庫存，因此這些較早的價格可能不會影響四月的數據。

Now, economists and retailers expect higher costs, especially for food and energy, potentially pushing prices to a four-month high.

現在，經濟學家和零售商期望更高的成本，尤其是對於食品和能源，可能會將價格提高到四個月的高度。

This CPI release is critical—it could reshape the broader economic outlook, including the crypto market.

此CPI發布至關重要 - 它可以重塑包括加密市場在內的更廣泛的經濟前景。

If the reading comes in stronger than expected, it might cool investor sentiment and lower the chances of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut.

如果閱讀量比預期的要強大，它可能會降低投資者的情緒，並降低近期美聯儲降低稅率的機會。

If the CPI data comes in higher than expected, the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for a longer period—a move that’s typically bearish for Bitcoin.

如果CPI數據的數據高於預期，美聯儲可能會使利率更長的時間升高，這一舉動通常是比特幣的看跌。

Higher rates tend to reduce market liquidity, strengthen the U.S. dollar, and raise yields—all of which can put downward pressure on BTC. In this scenario, Bitcoin could potentially pull back to around $107,000.

較高的利率往往會降低市場流動性，增強美元並提高收益率 - 所有這些都可能對BTC施加下降壓力。在這種情況下，比特幣可能會退回到107,000美元左右。

On the other hand, if the CPI reading is favorable, Bitcoin’s uptrend could continue, increasing the likelihood of a retest of its all-time high (ATH).

另一方面，如果CPI閱讀是有利的，則比特幣的上升趨勢可能會繼續，從而增加了重新測量其歷史最高高位（ATH）的可能性。