比特币[BTC]波动性仍然处于历史低位

尽管比特币[BTC]最近集结以达到新的历史最高水平，但BTC的波动率仍处于历史较低水平。

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to 200 Average True Range (ATR) as investors await key U.S. inflation data, according to CryptoQuant’s analyst Axel Adler.

根据CryptoQuant的分析师Axel Adler的说法，随着投资者的关键通货膨胀数据，比特币的波动率已下降到200个平均真实范围（ATR）。

At these levels, the market appears to be in “wait and see” mode, as on-chain activity slows.

在这些级别上，市场似乎处于“等待和看到”模式，因为链活动会减慢。

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to 200 Average True Range (ATR) as investors await key U.S. inflation data, according to CryptoQuant’s analyst Axel Adler.

根据CryptoQuant的分析师Axel Adler的说法，随着投资者的关键通货膨胀数据，比特币的波动率已下降到200个平均真实范围（ATR）。

According to the latest reports, Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to 200 ATR.

根据最新报告，比特币的波动率下降到200 ATR。

The drop to a 200 ATR level suggests that Bitcoin’s price movements are currently calm, and volatility is reaching historical low levels.

下降到200 ATR的水平表明，比特币的价格变动目前很平静，波动率正在达到历史较低水平。

At these levels, the market appears to be in “wait and see” mode, evidenced by slowing on-chain activity.

在这些层面上，市场似乎处于“等待和看到”模式，这可以减缓链上的活动。

Low volatility typically signals smaller, more stable price swings, and this often leads to reduced capital inflow—from both retail and institutional investors—as many choose to stay on the sidelines.

低波动率通常表示较小，价格波动更稳定，这通常会导致资本流入减少（从零售和机构投资者）中，许多人选择留在场外。

This lack of momentum is also evident in Bitcoin’s Mean Coin Age, which climbed steadily and sat at a yearly high of 1.617k, at press time. This indicates that coins are staying untouched as more investors shift toward HODLing.

缺乏势头在比特币的平均硬币时代也很明显，后者稳步攀升，并在发稿时坐着每年1.617k的高点。这表明，随着越来越多的投资者转向霍德林，硬币一直保持不变。

As this holding trend strengthens, the Mean Coin dollar Age is approaching 18 million, further reinforcing the long-term sentiment.

随着这种持有趋势的增强，平均硬币年龄接近1800万，进一步加强了长期情绪。

At the same time, investors are also reducing leverage, particularly in the futures market, signaling a more cautious and risk-averse approach as they sit tight and wait for clearer momentum.

同时，投资者还降低了杠杆率，尤其是在期货市场上，当他们紧紧坐着并等待更清晰的动力时，预示着更加谨慎和规避风险的方法。

Why are investors taking a step back?

为什么投资者退后一步？

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin investors are currently in wait-and-watch mode ahead of the U.S. inflation data release.

根据CryptoQuant的说法，比特币投资者目前处于通货膨胀数据发布之前的等待观察模式。

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled for release today, June 11, 2025.

劳工统计局的消费者价格指数（CPI）报告计划于2025年6月11日发布。

This announcement has sparked widespread speculation about the potential market impact.

这一公告引发了人们对潜在市场影响的广泛猜测。

Reuters forecasts that CPI will rise by 0.2% for May, marking a 2.5% increase year-over-year. Meanwhile, Core CPI—which excludes food and energy—is expected to climb 0.3% for the month, with a 2.9% annual increase.

路透社预测，5月CPI将上升0.2％，标志着同比增长2.5％。同时，核心CPI（不包括食品和能源）预计将在本月上升0.3％，每年增长2.9％。

The upcoming CPI data may show an increase, partly due to Liberation Day tariffs imposed in April. Since many retailers had still been selling pre-tariff inventory, those earlier price hikes likely didn’t affect April’s figures.

即将到来的CPI数据可能显示出增加，部分原因是4月份征收的解放日关税。由于许多零售商仍在出售宣传前的库存，因此这些较早的价格可能不会影响四月的数据。

Now, economists and retailers expect higher costs, especially for food and energy, potentially pushing prices to a four-month high.

现在，经济学家和零售商期望更高的成本，尤其是对于食品和能源，可能会将价格提高到四个月的高度。

This CPI release is critical—it could reshape the broader economic outlook, including the crypto market.

此CPI发布至关重要 - 它可以重塑包括加密市场在内的更广泛的经济前景。

If the reading comes in stronger than expected, it might cool investor sentiment and lower the chances of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut.

如果阅读量比预期的要强大，它可能会降低投资者的情绪，并降低近期美联储降低税率的机会。

If the CPI data comes in higher than expected, the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for a longer period—a move that’s typically bearish for Bitcoin.

如果CPI数据的数据高于预期，美联储可能会使利率更长的时间升高，这一举动通常是比特币的看跌。

Higher rates tend to reduce market liquidity, strengthen the U.S. dollar, and raise yields—all of which can put downward pressure on BTC. In this scenario, Bitcoin could potentially pull back to around $107,000.

较高的利率往往会降低市场流动性，增强美元并提高收益率 - 所有这些都可能对BTC施加下降压力。在这种情况下，比特币可能会退回到107,000美元左右。

On the other hand, if the CPI reading is favorable, Bitcoin’s uptrend could continue, increasing the likelihood of a retest of its all-time high (ATH).

另一方面，如果CPI阅读是有利的，则比特币的上升趋势可能会继续，从而增加了重新测量其历史最高高位（ATH）的可能性。