比特幣（BTC）長期持有者回歸購買模式，累積階段開始

比特幣的長期持有者，尤其是那些未使用交易輸出（UTXO）部分超過 1 和 2 年的持有者，已經重新開始購買市場上的供應

After Bitcoin marked a new all-time high at $73,777 on March 14, we saw a phase of correction and price consolidation that lasted about 45 days, driven by long-term holders who sold significant amounts of coins.

3 月 14 日，比特幣創下 73,777 美元的歷史新高後，在長期持有者拋售大量比特幣的推動下，我們看到了持續約 45 天的調整和價格盤整階段。

Now, however, it seems that the retracement is over and the so-called “long term holders” (LTH) are back to buying, highlighting the beginning of a re-accumulation period, with on-chain conditions that have not been observed since December 2023.

然而，現在看來回調已經結束，所謂的「長期持有者」（LTH）又開始買入，凸顯了重新累積期的開始，鏈上狀況是自上次以來從未觀察到的。月。

In particular, we can see in the following chart provided by Crypto Quant, how the balance of all long-term holders has started to grow again in the month of May, justifying the rebound in Bitcoin prices from 56,500 dollars to above 71,000 dollars.

特別是，我們可以在 Crypto Quant 提供的下圖中看到，5 月份所有長期持有者的餘額如何開始再次增長，證明比特幣價格從 56,500 美元反彈至 71,000 美元以上是合理的。

Generally, these entities with more years of coins behind them liquidate significant portions of BTC during bullish phases, only to reemerge at the peak of bearish phases with new purchases: this model has worked very well for the bull markets of 2017 and 2021. This trend reflects the long-term bullish sentiment among asset holders, motivated to accumulate as much as possible during market dips.

一般來說，這些擁有更多年期代幣的實體會在看漲階段清算大部分BTC，然後在看跌階段的頂峰重新出現並進行新的購買：這種模式在2017 年和2021 年的牛市中非常有效。

Going into more detail and zooming in, we can notice how the holders who hold portions of unspent transaction outputs (UTXO) between 1 and 2 years are reversing the trend that characterized the months of March and April, returning to purchase supply in the last few weeks.

更詳細地觀察並放大，我們可以注意到持有 1 至 2 年內未使用交易輸出 (UTXO) 部分的持有者如何扭轉 3 月和 4 月的趨勢，恢復過去幾年的購買供應量幾週。

This type of condition is more visible in holders of 1.5-2 years, with the beginning of the month of May marking the right moment to come back to the forefront after a phase of boring distribution.

這種情況在 1.5-2 年的持有者中更為明顯，五月初標誌著在經歷了一段無聊的發行階段後回到前列的最佳時機。

In particular, in just one month they have repurchased about 350,000 coins sold in the previous three months.

尤其是，短短一個月的時間，他們就回購了前三個月賣出的約35萬枚幣。

Another fundamental parameter to consider in order to perform a momentum analysis is the amount of reserve coins held by centralized exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitget, Okx, Bybit, etc.

進行動量分析時需要考慮的另一個基本參數是幣安、Coinbase、Kraken、Bitget、Okx、Bybit 等中心化交易所持有的儲備幣數量。

As shown in the Coinglass chart, since February these kinds of reserves have decreased drastically, eliminating potential selling pressure and contributing to the rally that pushed Bitcoin above new all-time highs in mid-March.

正如 Coinglass 圖表所示，自 2 月以來，此類儲備已大幅減少，消除了潛在的拋售壓力，並推動了比特幣在 3 月中旬升至歷史新高的反彈。

The trend of declining reserves has intensified in recent days with investors who seem determined to push the cryptocurrency above new price levels, reducing the supply further, approaching a situation of “supply shock”.

最近幾天，儲備下降的趨勢加劇，投資者似乎決心將加密貨幣推高到新的價格水平之上，進一步減少供應，接近「供應衝擊」的情況。

To all this, the emergence of new accumulation addresses is added, which are buying Bitcoin (and also Ethereum) in anticipation of the next general price increase.

除此之外，還出現了新的累積地址，這些地址正在購買比特幣（以及以太幣），以預期下一次價格普遍上漲。

Let’s see in this regard how, despite the recent stable prices and modest growth for both assets, compared to previous months, there are significant increases in new accumulation addresses, supporting the thesis that we are in a pre-pump phase.

在這方面，讓我們看看，儘管最近這兩種資產的價格穩定且增長緩慢，但與前幾個月相比，新的積累地址卻顯著增加，這支持了我們正處於預抽階段的論點。

At this rate, the 100,000 dollars are no longer a mirage and could be reached by the end of 2024.

以這個速度，10萬美元不再是海市蜃樓，到2024年底就可以實現。

The Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to remove supply from the market thanks to positive inflows.

由於資金積極流入，比特幣現貨 ETF 繼續從市場上移除供應。

In addition to the data related to the behaviors of long-term holders and the data of exchange reserves, in order to provide a complete on-chain overview, we examine the latest results regarding the inflows of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

除了與長期持有者行為相關的數據和外匯儲備數據之外，為了提供完整的鏈上概覽，我們還研究了現貨比特幣 ETF 流入的最新結果。

We carefully notice how the accumulation by the holders who supported the price rise of the currency in the month of May, was accompanied by inflows that were clearly positive for ETFs on Wall Street in the last two weeks, with data that exceeded 136 million dollars per day on average.

我們仔細地註意到，支持 5 月份貨幣價格上漲的持有者的累積是如何伴隨著過去兩週對華爾街 ETF 明顯有利的資金流入的，數據超過了 1.36 億美元。

The net inflows have exceeded the production of new coins by the network’s miners by about 4 times, highlighting a deflationary situation where more coins are “burned” than are produced.

淨流入量超過了網路礦工生產的新代幣的約 4 倍，凸顯了通貨緊縮的情況，即「燒毀」的代幣數量多於生產的代幣數量。

Note how the ETFs have recorded positive inflows for 15 consecutive days starting from May 13, when Bitcoin had just begun to recover from the dips at $61,400.

請注意，從 5 月 13 日開始，ETF 已連續 15 天錄得正資金流入，當時比特幣剛開始從 61,400 美元的跌勢中恢復過來。

Very important in this regard is what happened last Friday, when despite the heavy outflow of GBTC with 124 million dollars sold, additional shares were purchased on the other side, bringing the net inflow to a positive state at 48.8 million dollars by the end of the day.

這方面非常重要的是上週五發生的事情，儘管GBTC大量流出，拋售1.24億美元，但對方又增購了股份，使得截止到月底淨流入達到4880萬美元的正值狀態。

Now it seems as if the micro-capitulation phase that characterized the second half of March and the entire month of April has now faded to make way for an accumulation phase.

現在看來，3 月下半月和整個 4 月的微投降階段已經消退，取而代之的是累積階段。

In total now the Bitcoin USA ETFs hold a Total Net Asset of 59.42 billion dollars.

目前，Bitcoin USA ETF 的總淨資產為 594.2 億美元。

It is worth noting that on May 29, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (iBIT) ETF by BlackRock surpassed the Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) by Grayscale in terms of Bitcoin holdings, with iBIT reaching 288,670 BTC held (AUM $19.6 billion), compared to GBTC’s 287

值得注意的是，5月29日，貝萊德旗下的iShares比特幣信託（iBIT）ETF在比特幣持有量方面超過了灰度的比特幣信託（GBTC），iBIT持有的比特幣達到288,670枚（資產管理規模196億美元），而GBTC的持有量為287枚。