比特币（BTC）长期持有者回归购买模式，积累阶段开始

比特币的长期持有者，尤其是那些未使用交易输出（UTXO）部分超过 1 和 2 年的持有者，已经重新开始购买市场上的供应

After Bitcoin marked a new all-time high at $73,777 on March 14, we saw a phase of correction and price consolidation that lasted about 45 days, driven by long-term holders who sold significant amounts of coins.

3 月 14 日，比特币创下 73,777 美元的历史新高后，在长期持有者抛售大量比特币的推动下，我们看到了持续约 45 天的调整和价格盘整阶段。

Now, however, it seems that the retracement is over and the so-called “long term holders” (LTH) are back to buying, highlighting the beginning of a re-accumulation period, with on-chain conditions that have not been observed since December 2023.

然而，现在看来回调已经结束，所谓的“长期持有者”（LTH）又开始买入，凸显了重新积累期的开始，链上状况是自上次以来从未观察到的。 2023 年 12 月。

In particular, we can see in the following chart provided by Crypto Quant, how the balance of all long-term holders has started to grow again in the month of May, justifying the rebound in Bitcoin prices from 56,500 dollars to above 71,000 dollars.

特别是，我们可以在 Crypto Quant 提供的下图中看到，5 月份所有长期持有者的余额如何开始再次增长，证明比特币价格从 56,500 美元反弹至 71,000 美元以上是合理的。

Generally, these entities with more years of coins behind them liquidate significant portions of BTC during bullish phases, only to reemerge at the peak of bearish phases with new purchases: this model has worked very well for the bull markets of 2017 and 2021. This trend reflects the long-term bullish sentiment among asset holders, motivated to accumulate as much as possible during market dips.

一般来说，这些拥有更多年期代币的实体会在看涨阶段清算大部分 BTC，然后在看跌阶段的顶峰重新出现并进行新的购买：这种模式在 2017 年和 2021 年的牛市中非常有效。这种趋势反映了资产持有者的长期看涨情绪，他们在市场下跌期间尽可能多地积累资产。

Going into more detail and zooming in, we can notice how the holders who hold portions of unspent transaction outputs (UTXO) between 1 and 2 years are reversing the trend that characterized the months of March and April, returning to purchase supply in the last few weeks.

更详细地观察并放大，我们可以注意到持有 1 至 2 年内未使用交易输出 (UTXO) 部分的持有者如何扭转 3 月和 4 月的趋势，恢复过去几年的购买供应量几周。

This type of condition is more visible in holders of 1.5-2 years, with the beginning of the month of May marking the right moment to come back to the forefront after a phase of boring distribution.

这种情况在 1.5-2 年的持有者中更为明显，五月初标志着在经历了一段无聊的发行阶段后回到前列的最佳时机。

In particular, in just one month they have repurchased about 350,000 coins sold in the previous three months.

尤其是，短短一个月的时间，他们就回购了前三个月卖出的约35万枚币。

Another fundamental parameter to consider in order to perform a momentum analysis is the amount of reserve coins held by centralized exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bitget, Okx, Bybit, etc.

进行动量分析时需要考虑的另一个基本参数是币安、Coinbase、Kraken、Bitget、Okx、Bybit 等中心化交易所持有的储备币数量。

As shown in the Coinglass chart, since February these kinds of reserves have decreased drastically, eliminating potential selling pressure and contributing to the rally that pushed Bitcoin above new all-time highs in mid-March.

正如 Coinglass 图表所示，自 2 月份以来，此类储备已大幅减少，消除了潜在的抛售压力，并推动了比特币在 3 月中旬升至历史新高的反弹。

The trend of declining reserves has intensified in recent days with investors who seem determined to push the cryptocurrency above new price levels, reducing the supply further, approaching a situation of “supply shock”.

最近几天，储备下降的趋势加剧，投资者似乎决心将加密货币推高到新的价格水平之上，进一步减少供应，接近“供应冲击”的情况。

To all this, the emergence of new accumulation addresses is added, which are buying Bitcoin (and also Ethereum) in anticipation of the next general price increase.

除此之外，还出现了新的累积地址，这些地址正在购买比特币（以及以太坊），以预期下一次价格普遍上涨。

Let’s see in this regard how, despite the recent stable prices and modest growth for both assets, compared to previous months, there are significant increases in new accumulation addresses, supporting the thesis that we are in a pre-pump phase.

在这方面，让我们看看，尽管最近这两种资产的价格稳定且增长缓慢，但与前几个月相比，新的积累地址却显着增加，这支持了我们正处于预抽阶段的论点。

At this rate, the 100,000 dollars are no longer a mirage and could be reached by the end of 2024.

按照这个速度，10万美元不再是海市蜃楼，到2024年底就可以实现。

The Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to remove supply from the market thanks to positive inflows.

由于资金积极流入，比特币现货 ETF 继续从市场上移除供应。

In addition to the data related to the behaviors of long-term holders and the data of exchange reserves, in order to provide a complete on-chain overview, we examine the latest results regarding the inflows of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

除了与长期持有者行为相关的数据和外汇储备数据之外，为了提供完整的链上概览，我们还研究了现货比特币 ETF 流入的最新结果。

We carefully notice how the accumulation by the holders who supported the price rise of the currency in the month of May, was accompanied by inflows that were clearly positive for ETFs on Wall Street in the last two weeks, with data that exceeded 136 million dollars per day on average.

我们仔细地注意到，支持 5 月份货币价格上涨的持有者的积累是如何伴随着过去两周对华尔街 ETF 明显有利的资金流入的，数据超过了 1.36 亿美元。平均一天。

The net inflows have exceeded the production of new coins by the network’s miners by about 4 times, highlighting a deflationary situation where more coins are “burned” than are produced.

净流入量超过了网络矿工生产的新代币的约 4 倍，凸显了通货紧缩的情况，即“烧毁”的代币数量多于生产的代币数量。

Note how the ETFs have recorded positive inflows for 15 consecutive days starting from May 13, when Bitcoin had just begun to recover from the dips at $61,400.

请注意，从 5 月 13 日开始，ETF 已连续 15 天录得正资金流入，当时比特币刚刚开始从 61,400 美元的跌势中恢复过来。

Very important in this regard is what happened last Friday, when despite the heavy outflow of GBTC with 124 million dollars sold, additional shares were purchased on the other side, bringing the net inflow to a positive state at 48.8 million dollars by the end of the day.

这方面非常重要的是上周五发生的事情，尽管GBTC大量流出，抛售1.24亿美元，但对方又增购了股份，使得截止到月底净流入达到4880万美元的正值状态。天。

Now it seems as if the micro-capitulation phase that characterized the second half of March and the entire month of April has now faded to make way for an accumulation phase.

现在看来，3 月下半月和整个 4 月的微投降阶段已经消退，取而代之的是积累阶段。

In total now the Bitcoin USA ETFs hold a Total Net Asset of 59.42 billion dollars.

目前，Bitcoin USA ETF 的总净资产为 594.2 亿美元。

It is worth noting that on May 29, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (iBIT) ETF by BlackRock surpassed the Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) by Grayscale in terms of Bitcoin holdings, with iBIT reaching 288,670 BTC held (AUM $19.6 billion), compared to GBTC’s 287

值得注意的是，5月29日，贝莱德旗下的iShares比特币信托（iBIT）ETF在比特币持有量方面超过了灰度的比特币信托（GBTC），iBIT持有的比特币达到288,670枚（资产管理规模196亿美元），而GBTC的持有量为287枚。