比特幣（BTC）飆升至45天高於$ 90,000

4月22日，比特幣（BTC）飆升至45天高出90,000美元的高度，而向上的運動恰逢黃金達到新的歷史最高水平。

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged to a 45-day high above $91,000 on April 22, and the move came as gold reached a new all-time high.

4月22日，比特幣（BTC）的價格飆升至45天高出91,000美元的高度，此舉是因為黃金達到了新的歷史最高水平。

The price gains come amid investor concerns over a potential economic recession and ongoing global trade tensions.

價格上漲是由於投資者對潛在的經濟衰退和持續的全球貿易緊張局勢的關注。

But is there any data to support a Bitcoin price rally above $95,000?

但是，是否有任何數據支持比特幣價格集會高於$ 95,000？

In neutral markets, the Bitcoin futures premium typically ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. At present, the annualized premium stands at 6%, which is not considered particularly bullish, even though BTC appreciated by $6,840 between April 20 and April 22. Some analysts interpret this as a sign that Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from the stock market.

在中立市場中，比特幣期貨保費通常在5％至10％之間，以彌補更長的和解期。目前，年度溢價為6％，儘管BTC在4月20日至4月22日之間的6,840美元讚賞，但並不特別看漲。一些分析師將其解釋為比特幣開始與股票市場脫穎而出的跡象。

Traders’ PTSD could emerge around BTC’s $90K zone

交易者的PTSD可能會出現在BTC的$ 90K區域

Part of this skepticism among traders stems from Bitcoin’s repeated inability to sustain levels above $90,000 in early March. For example, Bitcoin tested the $95,000 mark on March 3, only to fall to $81,464 the following day. This inconsistent performance since the $109,346 peak on Jan. 20 has contributed to a lack of conviction among bullish investors, especially as gold has continued to set new all-time highs during the same period.

交易者中這種懷疑的一部分源於比特幣一再無法在3月初維持90,000美元以上的水平。例如，比特幣在3月3日測試了95,000美元的成績，僅在第二天跌至81,464美元。自從1月20日達到109,346美元高峰以來，這種不一致的表現導致看漲投資者缺乏信念，尤其是在同一時期黃金繼續創造了新的歷史最高點時。

Currently, Bitcoin is trading 16% below its all-time high, a figure that closely mirrors the S&P 500’s decline of 14.5%. This suggests that the recent era of excessive risk-taking may be behind us. Notably, even at its lowest point below $75,000, Bitcoin’s 32% drawdown was less severe than those experienced by Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

目前，比特幣的交易價格低於其歷史最高水平，這一數字與標準普爾500指數下降14.5％的數字密切相似。這表明最近有過度冒險的時代可能在我們身後。值得注意的是，即使在低於$ 75,000的最低點，比特幣的32％的跌幅也比NVIDIA（NVDA），亞馬遜（AMZN），Facebook（Meta）和Tesla（TSLA）經歷的跌幅不那麼嚴重。

Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on April 22 contributed to easing investor concerns. As reported by Bloomberg, Bessent described the ongoing tariff standoff with China as “unsustainable,” suggesting an increased likelihood of de-escalation. In contrast, US President Donald Trump took to social media to assert that US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is hindering economic growth by not reducing interest rates.

美國財政部長Scott Bessent於4月22日發表的評論促成了放鬆投資者的關注。正如彭博社報導的那樣，Bessent將與中國持續的關稅對峙描述為“不可持續的”，這表明降級的可能性增加了。相比之下，美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）上了社交媒體，斷言美國美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）通過不降低利率來阻礙經濟增長。

Bitcoin gains in stark contrast to investors’ shift to government bonds

比特幣的收益與投資者轉向政府債券形成鮮明對比

Regardless of where the blame lies for the subdued economic growth in the United States, demand for short-term US Treasurys has risen, as evidenced by the yield on the 2-year note declining to 3.81% from 4.04% a month earlier. Essentially, investors are accepting lower returns in exchange for the perceived safety of government bonds. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s 6.3% price increase over the past 30 days stands out as particularly notable.

無論責備美國在美國的經濟增長所在的位置，對短期美國財政部的需求已經上升，這證明了2年票據的收益率從一個月前的4.04％下降至3.81％。本質上，投資者正在接受較低的回報，以換取政府債券的安全性。在這種背景下，比特幣在過去30天中的價格上漲6.3％，這一點尤其引人注目。

To determine whether these recent gains have affected professional traders’ sentiment, it is important to examine the BTC options markets. If traders expect a correction, put (sell) options tend to trade at a premium, causing the 25% delta skew metric to rise above 6%. Conversely, bullish sentiment pushes the indicator below -6%.

為了確定這些最近的收益是否影響了專業交易者的情緒，檢查BTC期權市場很重要。如果交易者期望進行更正，那麼（出售）期權往往會以溢價交易，從而導致25％的達美偏斜度量指標上升到6％以上。相反，看漲的情緒推動了低於-6％的指標。

Currently, the Bitcoin options market reflects limited enthusiasm following the recent surge to $91,000, with the 25% delta skew indicator at -2%, which remains within the neutral range. According to this metric, the last period of bullish sentiment occurred on January 30, when Bitcoin traded near $105,000. Therefore, there is no clear evidence that large investors or market makers are anticipating a sustained rally above $95,000.

目前，比特幣期權市場反映了最近的激增至91,000美元之後的熱情，而25％的Delta偏斜指標為-2％，保持中性範圍內。根據該指標，看漲情緒的最後一個時期發生在1月30日，當時比特幣交易近105,000美元。因此，沒有明確的證據表明，大型投資者或做市商預計將持續的集會持續超過95,000美元。

Despite some weak macroeconomic data, market participants expect a relatively strong first-quarter earnings season. FactSet reports that the “Magnificent 7” companies are projected to achieve earnings growth of 14.8% for the first quarter compared to the prior year.

儘管宏觀經濟數據較弱，但市場參與者預計第一季度收益季節相對較強。 FactSet報導說，與上一年相比，第一季度的“宏偉的7”公司預計將在第一季度實現14.8％的收入增長。

While Bitcoin still has a reasonable chance of revisiting $95,000 or higher, many traders appear to be waiting for further developments in the US-China trade war before placing additional bullish bets.

儘管比特幣仍然有合理的重新訪問95,000美元或更高的機會，但許多交易者似乎正在等待美國 - 中國貿易戰爭的進一步發展，然後再進行其他看漲賭注。