比特币（BTC）飙升至45天高于$ 90,000

4月22日，比特币（BTC）飙升至45天高出90,000美元的高度，而向上的运动恰逢黄金达到新的历史最高水平。

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged to a 45-day high above $91,000 on April 22, and the move came as gold reached a new all-time high.

4月22日，比特币（BTC）的价格飙升至45天高出91,000美元的高度，此举是因为黄金达到了新的历史最高水平。

The price gains come amid investor concerns over a potential economic recession and ongoing global trade tensions.

价格上涨是由于投资者对潜在的经济衰退和持续的全球贸易紧张局势的关注。

But is there any data to support a Bitcoin price rally above $95,000?

但是，是否有任何数据支持比特币价格集会高于$ 95,000？

In neutral markets, the Bitcoin futures premium typically ranges between 5% and 10% to compensate for the longer settlement period. At present, the annualized premium stands at 6%, which is not considered particularly bullish, even though BTC appreciated by $6,840 between April 20 and April 22. Some analysts interpret this as a sign that Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from the stock market.

在中立市场中，比特币期货保费通常在5％至10％之间，以弥补更长的和解期。目前，年度溢价为6％，尽管BTC在4月20日至4月22日之间的6,840美元赞赏，但并不特别看涨。一些分析师将其解释为比特币开始与股票市场脱颖而出的迹象。

Traders’ PTSD could emerge around BTC’s $90K zone

交易者的PTSD可能会出现在BTC的$ 90K区域

Part of this skepticism among traders stems from Bitcoin’s repeated inability to sustain levels above $90,000 in early March. For example, Bitcoin tested the $95,000 mark on March 3, only to fall to $81,464 the following day. This inconsistent performance since the $109,346 peak on Jan. 20 has contributed to a lack of conviction among bullish investors, especially as gold has continued to set new all-time highs during the same period.

交易者中这种怀疑的一部分源于比特币一再无法在3月初维持90,000美元以上的水平。例如，比特币在3月3日测试了95,000美元的成绩，仅在第二天跌至81,464美元。自从1月20日达到109,346美元高峰以来，这种不一致的表现导致看涨投资者缺乏信念，尤其是在同一时期黄金继续创造了新的历史最高点时。

Currently, Bitcoin is trading 16% below its all-time high, a figure that closely mirrors the S&P 500’s decline of 14.5%. This suggests that the recent era of excessive risk-taking may be behind us. Notably, even at its lowest point below $75,000, Bitcoin’s 32% drawdown was less severe than those experienced by Nvidia (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

目前，比特币的交易价格低于其历史最高水平，这一数字与标准普尔500指数下降14.5％的数字密切相似。这表明最近有过度冒险的时代可能在我们身后。值得注意的是，即使在低于$ 75,000的最低点，比特币的32％的跌幅也比NVIDIA（NVDA），亚马逊（AMZN），Facebook（Meta）和Tesla（TSLA）经历的跌幅不那么严重。

Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on April 22 contributed to easing investor concerns. As reported by Bloomberg, Bessent described the ongoing tariff standoff with China as “unsustainable,” suggesting an increased likelihood of de-escalation. In contrast, US President Donald Trump took to social media to assert that US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is hindering economic growth by not reducing interest rates.

美国财政部长Scott Bessent于4月22日发表的评论促成了放松投资者的关注。正如彭博社报道的那样，Bessent将与中国持续的关税对峙描述为“不可持续的”，这表明降级的可能性增加了。相比之下，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）上了社交媒体，断言美国美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）通过不降低利率来阻碍经济增长。

Bitcoin gains in stark contrast to investors’ shift to government bonds

比特币的收益与投资者转向政府债券形成鲜明对比

Regardless of where the blame lies for the subdued economic growth in the United States, demand for short-term US Treasurys has risen, as evidenced by the yield on the 2-year note declining to 3.81% from 4.04% a month earlier. Essentially, investors are accepting lower returns in exchange for the perceived safety of government bonds. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s 6.3% price increase over the past 30 days stands out as particularly notable.

无论责备美国在美国的经济增长所在的位置，对短期美国财政部的需求已经上升，这证明了2年票据的收益率从一个月前的4.04％下降至3.81％。本质上，投资者正在接受较低的回报，以换取政府债券的安全性。在这种背景下，比特币在过去30天中的价格上涨6.3％，这一点尤其引人注目。

To determine whether these recent gains have affected professional traders’ sentiment, it is important to examine the BTC options markets. If traders expect a correction, put (sell) options tend to trade at a premium, causing the 25% delta skew metric to rise above 6%. Conversely, bullish sentiment pushes the indicator below -6%.

为了确定这些最近的收益是否影响了专业交易者的情绪，检查BTC期权市场很重要。如果交易者期望进行更正，那么（出售）期权往往会以溢价交易，从而导致25％的达美偏斜度量指标上升到6％以上。相反，看涨的情绪推动了低于-6％的指标。

Currently, the Bitcoin options market reflects limited enthusiasm following the recent surge to $91,000, with the 25% delta skew indicator at -2%, which remains within the neutral range. According to this metric, the last period of bullish sentiment occurred on January 30, when Bitcoin traded near $105,000. Therefore, there is no clear evidence that large investors or market makers are anticipating a sustained rally above $95,000.

目前，比特币期权市场反映了最近的激增至91,000美元之后的热情，而25％的Delta偏斜指标为-2％，保持中性范围内。根据该指标，看涨情绪的最后一个时期发生在1月30日，当时比特币交易近105,000美元。因此，没有明确的证据表明，大型投资者或做市商预计将持续的集会持续超过95,000美元。

Despite some weak macroeconomic data, market participants expect a relatively strong first-quarter earnings season. FactSet reports that the “Magnificent 7” companies are projected to achieve earnings growth of 14.8% for the first quarter compared to the prior year.

尽管宏观经济数据较弱，但市场参与者预计第一季度收益季节相对较强。 FactSet报道说，与上一年相比，第一季度的“宏伟的7”公司预计将在第一季度实现14.8％的收入增长。

While Bitcoin still has a reasonable chance of revisiting $95,000 or higher, many traders appear to be waiting for further developments in the US-China trade war before placing additional bullish bets.

尽管比特币仍然有合理的重新访问95,000美元或更高的机会，但许多交易者似乎正在等待美国 - 中国贸易战争的进一步发展，然后再进行其他看涨赌注。