一本教科書短擠壓後，比特幣（BTC）伸展了腿。它會爆發還是翻身？

比特幣（BTC）最近的價格行動引起了許多措手不及的措施，並有強大的反彈來自售出的條件。

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged in recent days, largely on the back of a textbook short squeeze, but now finds itself at a decisive resistance zone that could determine whether the recent bounce has more legs or if a reversal is brewing.

比特幣（BTC）最近幾天猛增，主要在教科書短擠壓的背面，但現在發現自己處在一個決定性的阻力區域，該區域可以確定最近的反彈是否有更多的腿或逆轉。

As the cryptocurrency descended to new lows, bearish sentiment reached extreme levels, with many traders positioning for further declines and placing short trades. This heavily skewed sentiment and crowded trading set the stage for a potential short squeeze.

隨著加密貨幣下降到新的低點，看跌的情緒達到了極端水平，許多交易者定位進一步下降並進行了短暫的交易。這種沉重的情緒和擁擠的交易為潛在的短暫擠壓奠定了基礎。

With BTC approaching recent lows, bearish sentiment was certainly at its peak, and many traders were heavily short. This type of positioning and pessimistic outlook usually leads to short-term bounces, especially when they occur at heavily oversold levels, as we saw in mid-December.

隨著BTC最近的低點，看跌的情緒肯定是達到頂峰，許多交易員的矮小。這種類型的定位和悲觀的前景通常會導致短期彈跳，尤其是當它們發生在大量超售水平時，正如我們在12月中旬看到的那樣。

As the price began to bounce, short positions were forced to cover, especially if they were leveraged or had close-knit take-profit levels. This, in turn, fueled an exaggerated upside move, setting the stage for a vicious short squeeze.

隨著價格開始反彈，較短的頭寸被迫覆蓋，尤其是當它們被槓桿率或緊密聯繫的額外利潤水平時。反過來，這為誇張的上行移動加油，為惡性的短暫擠壓奠定了基礎。

However, this scenario usually isn’t sustainable unless it’s accompanied by real demand in the form of fresh spot volume, especially at higher price levels.

但是，這種情況通常是不可持續的，除非它伴隨著新的需求形式，尤其是在更高的價格水平下。

Key technical levels to consider

要考慮的關鍵技術級別

The rally began at a time when bearish sentiment was nearly at its peak, with many traders heavily shorting Bitcoin as it approached recent lows. This type of massively crowded positioning usually triggers a chain reaction, especially if it’s leveraged.

集會始於看國情緒幾乎達到頂峰的時候，許多交易員在最近的低谷中大量短路比特幣。這種大量擁擠的定位通常會觸發鏈反應，尤其是在利用鏈條的情況下。

As the price began to bounce, short positions were forced to cover, especially if they were leveraged or had close-knit take-profit levels. This, in turn, fueled an exaggerated upside move, setting the stage for a vicious short squeeze.

隨著價格開始反彈，較短的頭寸被迫覆蓋，尤其是當它們被槓桿率或緊密聯繫的額外利潤水平時。反過來，這為誇張的上行移動加油，為惡性的短暫擠壓奠定了基礎。

However, this scenario usually isn’t sustainable unless it’s accompanied by real demand in the form of fresh spot volume.

但是，除非以新鮮量的形式伴隨著真正的需求，否則這種情況通常是不可持續的。

Now, Bitcoin is testing several key resistance levels in one cluster. The most important of these include the $98,300 level, the descending trendline that has defined recent price action, and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous swing high.

現在，比特幣正在一個集群中測試幾個關鍵阻力水平。其中最重要的包括98,300美元的水平，定義了最近的價格行動的下降趨勢線以及前一個鞦韆高高的0.618 Fibonacci回撤。

This confluence zone is also aligned with the daily imbalance area and the point of control, making it a high-risk location for potential reversal.

該匯合區也與每日不平衡區域和控制點保持一致，使其成為潛在逆轉的高風險位置。

A clean rejection here could confirm this rally as simply a short squeeze top, opening the door for another leg lower. But if Bitcoin consolidates around this resistance zone and breaks above it with sustained volume, then the structure could shift into a genuine bullish continuation.

這裡的干淨拒絕可以確認這一集會，因為簡單地擠壓了頂部，打開門，以使另一隻腿較低。但是，如果比特幣在該阻力區域周圍鞏固並以持續的體積折斷，那麼該結構可能會轉移到真正的看漲延續中。

Adding to the concern, this rally has occurred during a period of thin liquidity and limited spot market interest. Without real demand behind the move, the sustainability of higher prices remains questionable. Smart money often fades these types of rallies unless they are confirmed with follow-through volume and clear support reclaim.

除此之外，此次集會發生在流動性較薄和現貨市場興趣有限的時期。如果沒有真正的需求，更高價格的可持續性仍然值得懷疑。聰明的錢通常會淡入這些類型的集會，除非通過以後的數量和明確的支持回收。

What to expect in the coming price action

在即將到來的價格行動中會有什麼期望

All eyes should remain on the $98,300 level. A clear reclaim and close above this zone would flip resistance into support and suggest that bulls are taking control.

所有人的目光都應保持在$ 98,300的水平上。在該區域上方的明確回收和近距離接近，將把阻力轉向支撐，並暗示公牛正在控制。

Until then, traders should remain cautious, as failure here could send Bitcoin back toward lower support levels. Expect volatility and watch closely for a confirmed rejection or breakout.

在此之前，交易者應該保持謹慎，因為這裡的失敗可能會使比特幣恢復到較低的支持水平。期望波動性並密切注意確認的拒絕或突破。