一本教科书短挤压后，比特币（BTC）伸展了腿。它会爆发还是翻身？

比特币（BTC）最近的价格行动引起了许多措手不及的措施，并有强大的反弹来自售出的条件。

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged in recent days, largely on the back of a textbook short squeeze, but now finds itself at a decisive resistance zone that could determine whether the recent bounce has more legs or if a reversal is brewing.

比特币（BTC）最近几天猛增，主要在教科书短挤压的背面，但现在发现自己处在一个决定性的阻力区域，该区域可以确定最近的反弹是否有更多的腿或逆转。

As the cryptocurrency descended to new lows, bearish sentiment reached extreme levels, with many traders positioning for further declines and placing short trades. This heavily skewed sentiment and crowded trading set the stage for a potential short squeeze.

随着加密货币下降到新的低点，看跌的情绪达到了极端水平，许多交易者定位进一步下降并进行了短暂的交易。这种沉重的情绪和拥挤的交易为潜在的短暂挤压奠定了基础。

With BTC approaching recent lows, bearish sentiment was certainly at its peak, and many traders were heavily short. This type of positioning and pessimistic outlook usually leads to short-term bounces, especially when they occur at heavily oversold levels, as we saw in mid-December.

随着BTC最近的低点，看跌的情绪肯定是达到顶峰，许多交易员的矮小。这种类型的定位和悲观的前景通常会导致短期弹跳，尤其是当它们发生在大量超售水平时，正如我们在12月中旬看到的那样。

As the price began to bounce, short positions were forced to cover, especially if they were leveraged or had close-knit take-profit levels. This, in turn, fueled an exaggerated upside move, setting the stage for a vicious short squeeze.

随着价格开始反弹，较短的头寸被迫覆盖，尤其是当它们被杠杆率或紧密联系的额外利润水平时。反过来，这为夸张的上行移动加油，为恶性的短暂挤压奠定了基础。

However, this scenario usually isn’t sustainable unless it’s accompanied by real demand in the form of fresh spot volume, especially at higher price levels.

但是，这种情况通常是不可持续的，除非它伴随着新的需求形式，尤其是在更高的价格水平下。

Key technical levels to consider

要考虑的关键技术级别

The rally began at a time when bearish sentiment was nearly at its peak, with many traders heavily shorting Bitcoin as it approached recent lows. This type of massively crowded positioning usually triggers a chain reaction, especially if it’s leveraged.

集会始于看国情绪几乎达到顶峰的时候，许多交易员在最近的低谷中大量短路比特币。这种大量拥挤的定位通常会触发链反应，尤其是在利用链条的情况下。

As the price began to bounce, short positions were forced to cover, especially if they were leveraged or had close-knit take-profit levels. This, in turn, fueled an exaggerated upside move, setting the stage for a vicious short squeeze.

随着价格开始反弹，较短的头寸被迫覆盖，尤其是当它们被杠杆率或紧密联系的额外利润水平时。反过来，这为夸张的上行移动加油，为恶性的短暂挤压奠定了基础。

However, this scenario usually isn’t sustainable unless it’s accompanied by real demand in the form of fresh spot volume.

但是，除非以新鲜量的形式伴随着真正的需求，否则这种情况通常是不可持续的。

Now, Bitcoin is testing several key resistance levels in one cluster. The most important of these include the $98,300 level, the descending trendline that has defined recent price action, and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the previous swing high.

现在，比特币正在一个集群中测试几个关键阻力水平。其中最重要的包括98,300美元的水平，定义了最近的价格行动的下降趋势线以及前一个秋千高高的0.618 Fibonacci回撤。

This confluence zone is also aligned with the daily imbalance area and the point of control, making it a high-risk location for potential reversal.

该汇合区也与每日不平衡区域和控制点保持一致，使其成为潜在逆转的高风险位置。

A clean rejection here could confirm this rally as simply a short squeeze top, opening the door for another leg lower. But if Bitcoin consolidates around this resistance zone and breaks above it with sustained volume, then the structure could shift into a genuine bullish continuation.

这里的干净拒绝可以确认这一集会，因为简单地挤压了顶部，打开门，以使另一只腿较低。但是，如果比特币在该阻力区域周围巩固并以持续的体积折断，那么该结构可能会转移到真正的看涨延续中。

Adding to the concern, this rally has occurred during a period of thin liquidity and limited spot market interest. Without real demand behind the move, the sustainability of higher prices remains questionable. Smart money often fades these types of rallies unless they are confirmed with follow-through volume and clear support reclaim.

除此之外，此次集会发生在流动性较薄和现货市场兴趣有限的时期。如果没有真正的需求，更高价格的可持续性仍然值得怀疑。聪明的钱通常会淡入这些类型的集会，除非通过以后的数量和明确的支持回收。

What to expect in the coming price action

在即将到来的价格行动中会有什么期望

All eyes should remain on the $98,300 level. A clear reclaim and close above this zone would flip resistance into support and suggest that bulls are taking control.

所有人的目光都应保持在$ 98,300的水平上。在该区域上方的明确回收和近距离接近，将把阻力转向支撑，并暗示公牛正在控制。

Until then, traders should remain cautious, as failure here could send Bitcoin back toward lower support levels. Expect volatility and watch closely for a confirmed rejection or breakout.

在此之前，交易者应该保持谨慎，因为这里的失败可能会使比特币恢复到较低的支持水平。期望波动性并密切注意确认的拒绝或突破。