到2025年，比特幣（BTC）可以達到250,000美元，到2028年$ 100萬：Bitmex聯合創始人Arthur Hayes

BITMEX的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes預測，比特幣在2025年底之前可以達到250,00美元，到2028年可以達到100萬美元。

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 and $1 million by 2028.

BITMEX的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes預測，到2025年底，比特幣將達到25萬美元，到2028年可以達到100萬美元。

Speaking at Token2049 in Dubai, Hayes largely attributes these optimistic targets to an anticipated expansion of U.S. government debt, a consequent increase in market liquidity, and potential shifts in political leadership.

海斯在迪拜的Token2049上發表講話，主要將這些樂觀的目標歸因於預期的美國政府債務，隨之而來的市場流動性增加以及政治領導力的潛在轉變。

Hayes Links Bitcoin Surge to US Debt, Treasury’s Liquidity Measures

海斯將比特幣激增與美國債務，財政部的流動性措施聯繫起來

Elaborating on the U.S. fiscal situation, Hayes noted the Treasury's reliance on non-traditional methods, such as drawing down the Treasury General Account (TGA) and employing “Extraordinary Measures,” to sustain government operations without issuing new debt that would breach the current debt ceiling.

海耶斯（Hayes）詳細闡述了美國財政狀況，指出了財政部對非傳統方法的依賴，例如降低財政部總帳戶（TGA）和採取“非凡措施”，以維持政府的業務，而不會發出新的債務，而不會違反當前債務上限。

The TGA, he pointed out (with information reportedly shared by sources like @WuBlockchain on X), reportedly dropped from $750 billion to $450 billion in Q1 2025. He further observed that while net new borrowing is restricted, total government spending is outpacing prior years, marking a 22% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

他指出的TGA（據報導，@WublockChain在X上的消息來源共享的信息）從2025年第1季度的第1季度下降到4500億美元降至4500億美元。他進一步觀察到，儘管淨新借貸受到限制，但總共政府的總支出超過了前期，與2024年相比增加了22％。

This growing deficit, Hayes argued, will inevitably compel the Treasury to issue more debt, thereby introducing new liquidity into the financial system. He believes this monetary expansion closely mirrors Bitcoin's market behavior, citing April 9 as the asset's recent local bottom. According to Hayes, this liquidity cycle could propel Bitcoin significantly higher within the current year.

海耶斯認為，這種日益增長的赤字將不可避免地迫使財政部發行更多債務，從而將新的流動性引入金融體系。他認為，這種貨幣擴張與比特幣的市場行為相似，理由是4月9日是資產最近的本地底層。根據海斯的說法，這種流動性週期可能會在當年推動比特幣明顯更高。

Selective Altcoin Season Expected by Q3, Conditions Apply

選擇性替代幣季節預期為第三季度，適用條件

Regarding the broader crypto market, Hayes expects an altcoin season to commence by Q3 of this year. However, he stipulated that Bitcoin first needs to surpass the $110,000 mark and achieve trading volumes indicative of a price range at or above $150,000-$200,000 before altcoins truly begin their ascent.

關於更廣泛的加密市場，海耶斯預計今年第三季度將開始一個山寨幣季節。但是，他規定，比特幣首先需要超過110,000美元的成績，並實現交易量，指示價格範圍或高於$ 150,000- $ 200,000，然後Altcoins真正開始上升。

He also cautioned that the upcoming altcoin season is unlikely to replicate the explosive, broad-based rally witnessed in 2021. Hayes stated that not all altcoins are positioned for growth, especially those with high fully diluted valuations, low float, and minimal user activity. He emphasized that only assets capable of outperforming Bitcoin will prove attractive for capital deployment in this particular cycle.

他還警告說，即將到來的Altcoin季節不太可能複制2021年見證的爆炸性，基於廣泛的集會。海耶斯表示，並非所有山寨幣都適合增長，尤其是那些具有高稀釋量的估值，低浮標，低浮標和最小用戶活動的人。他強調，只有能夠勝過比特幣的資產在這個特定週期中對資本部署有吸引力。

Ethereum May Outperform Solana in Coming Years, Hayes States

海耶斯說，以太坊在未來幾年中可能勝過Solana

Hayes also shared his outlook on Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), projecting that Ethereum may deliver stronger gains over the next 18 to 24 months. Despite some negative sentiment currently surrounding Ethereum, he noted that it remains the most secure proof-of-stake blockchain and continues to lead in developer activity and total value locked. In contrast, while acknowledging Solana's strong past performance, Hayes suggested that new capital would likely favor Ethereum moving forward.

海耶斯還分享了他對以太坊（ETH）和索拉納（Sol）（Sol）的看法，預測以太坊可能會在未來18到24個月內帶來更大的收益。儘管目前圍繞以太坊的某些負面情緒，但他指出，它仍然是最安全的綜合區塊鏈，並繼續領導開發人員活動和鎖定總價值。相比之下，海斯在承認索拉納的過去表現強勁時，建議新資本可能會有利於以太坊前進。

In addition to his views on digital assets, Hayes also shed light on his personal investment strategy, revealing that gold amounts to about 20% of his investment portfolio. He holds both real gold and gold mining stocks, citing robust central bank demand and potential dollar depreciation as key motivating factors. In his estimation, gold could reach a value between $10,000 and $20,000 throughout the current financial cycle.

除了他對數字資產的看法外，海斯還闡明了他的個人投資策略，揭示了黃金約佔他的投資組合的20％。他以強大的中央銀行需求和潛在的美元折舊作為關鍵的激勵因素，同時持有真正的黃金和黃金開採股。據他估計，在當前的整個財務週期中，黃金可以達到10,000至20,000美元的價值。