到2025年，比特币（BTC）可以达到250,000美元，到2028年$ 100万：Bitmex联合创始人Arthur Hayes

BITMEX的联合创始人Arthur Hayes预测，比特币在2025年底之前可以达到250,00美元，到2028年可以达到100万美元。

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2025 and $1 million by 2028.

BITMEX的联合创始人Arthur Hayes预测，到2025年底，比特币将达到25万美元，到2028年可以达到100万美元。

Speaking at Token2049 in Dubai, Hayes largely attributes these optimistic targets to an anticipated expansion of U.S. government debt, a consequent increase in market liquidity, and potential shifts in political leadership.

海斯在迪拜的Token2049上发表讲话，主要将这些乐观的目标归因于预期的美国政府债务，随之而来的市场流动性增加以及政治领导力的潜在转变。

Hayes Links Bitcoin Surge to US Debt, Treasury’s Liquidity Measures

海斯将比特币激增与美国债务，财政部的流动性措施联系起来

Elaborating on the U.S. fiscal situation, Hayes noted the Treasury's reliance on non-traditional methods, such as drawing down the Treasury General Account (TGA) and employing “Extraordinary Measures,” to sustain government operations without issuing new debt that would breach the current debt ceiling.

海耶斯（Hayes）详细阐述了美国财政状况，指出了财政部对非传统方法的依赖，例如降低财政部总帐户（TGA）和采取“非凡措施”，以维持政府的业务，而不会发出新的债务，而不会违反当前债务上限。

The TGA, he pointed out (with information reportedly shared by sources like @WuBlockchain on X), reportedly dropped from $750 billion to $450 billion in Q1 2025. He further observed that while net new borrowing is restricted, total government spending is outpacing prior years, marking a 22% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

他指出的TGA（据报道，@WublockChain在X上的消息来源共享的信息）从2025年第1季度的第1季度下降到4500亿美元降至4500亿美元。他进一步观察到，尽管净新借贷受到限制，但总共政府的总支出超过了前期，与2024年相比增加了22％。

This growing deficit, Hayes argued, will inevitably compel the Treasury to issue more debt, thereby introducing new liquidity into the financial system. He believes this monetary expansion closely mirrors Bitcoin's market behavior, citing April 9 as the asset's recent local bottom. According to Hayes, this liquidity cycle could propel Bitcoin significantly higher within the current year.

海耶斯认为，这种日益增长的赤字将不可避免地迫使财政部发行更多债务，从而将新的流动性引入金融体系。他认为，这种货币扩张与比特币的市场行为相似，理由是4月9日是资产最近的本地底层。根据海斯的说法，这种流动性周期可能会在当年推动比特币明显更高。

Selective Altcoin Season Expected by Q3, Conditions Apply

选择性替代币季节预期为第三季度，适用条件

Regarding the broader crypto market, Hayes expects an altcoin season to commence by Q3 of this year. However, he stipulated that Bitcoin first needs to surpass the $110,000 mark and achieve trading volumes indicative of a price range at or above $150,000-$200,000 before altcoins truly begin their ascent.

关于更广泛的加密市场，海耶斯预计今年第三季度将开始一个山寨币季节。但是，他规定，比特币首先需要超过110,000美元的成绩，并实现交易量，指示价格范围或高于$ 150,000- $ 200,000，然后Altcoins真正开始上升。

He also cautioned that the upcoming altcoin season is unlikely to replicate the explosive, broad-based rally witnessed in 2021. Hayes stated that not all altcoins are positioned for growth, especially those with high fully diluted valuations, low float, and minimal user activity. He emphasized that only assets capable of outperforming Bitcoin will prove attractive for capital deployment in this particular cycle.

他还警告说，即将到来的Altcoin季节不太可能复制2021年见证的爆炸性，基于广泛的集会。海耶斯表示，并非所有山寨币都适合增长，尤其是那些具有高稀释量的估值，低浮标，低浮标和最小用户活动的人。他强调，只有能够胜过比特币的资产在这个特定周期中对资本部署有吸引力。

Ethereum May Outperform Solana in Coming Years, Hayes States

海耶斯说，以太坊在未来几年中可能胜过Solana

Hayes also shared his outlook on Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), projecting that Ethereum may deliver stronger gains over the next 18 to 24 months. Despite some negative sentiment currently surrounding Ethereum, he noted that it remains the most secure proof-of-stake blockchain and continues to lead in developer activity and total value locked. In contrast, while acknowledging Solana's strong past performance, Hayes suggested that new capital would likely favor Ethereum moving forward.

海耶斯还分享了他对以太坊（ETH）和索拉纳（Sol）（Sol）的看法，预测以太坊可能会在未来18到24个月内带来更大的收益。尽管目前围绕以太坊的某些负面情绪，但他指出，它仍然是最安全的综合区块链，并继续领导开发人员活动和锁定总价值。相比之下，海斯在承认索拉纳的过去表现强劲时，建议新资本可能会有利于以太坊前进。

In addition to his views on digital assets, Hayes also shed light on his personal investment strategy, revealing that gold amounts to about 20% of his investment portfolio. He holds both real gold and gold mining stocks, citing robust central bank demand and potential dollar depreciation as key motivating factors. In his estimation, gold could reach a value between $10,000 and $20,000 throughout the current financial cycle.

除了他对数字资产的看法外，海斯还阐明了他的个人投资策略，揭示了黄金约占他的投资组合的20％。他以强大的中央银行需求和潜在的美元折旧作为关键的激励因素，同时持有真正的黄金和黄金开采股。据他估计，在当前的整个财务周期中，黄金可以达到10,000至20,000美元的价值。