比特幣（BTC）價格合併了100000美元以上，公牛可以維持上升趨勢嗎？

自5月10日（星期六）以來，比特幣價格已經進入了另一個合併時期，但公牛已經能夠將價格保持在關鍵的100000大關之上。

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have entered another period of consolidation since Saturday May 10 but bulls have been able to keep the price above the key psychological 100000 mark.

自5月10日（星期六）以來，比特幣（BTC）價格已經進入了另一個合併時期，但公牛已經能夠將價格保持在關鍵的100000大關之上。

Is the rally running out of steam or is more upside possible?

拉力賽是否耗盡蒸汽，還是更高的上行空間？

Firstly we saw a similar period of consolidation around the 95000 handle before price exploded around $10,000 in a three-day span. This move higher followed about 11 days of consolidation. Markets usually see a more aggressive breakout the longer an asset consolidates, the question is will bulls or bears prevail?

首先，我們在95000把手附近看到了類似的合併時期，在價格在三天的時間內爆炸了約10,000美元。此移動更高，隨後大約11天的合併。市場通常會看到越來越多的積極分解，資產鞏固的時間越長，問題是公牛或熊會佔上風嗎？

There are always conflicting views and at times signs which support both a bullish and bearish scenario. Let us take a look at what some of those factors might be moving forward.

總會有矛盾的觀點，有時有時會支持看漲和看跌的情況。讓我們看看其中一些因素可能會向前發展。

According to Glassnode, since hitting a low of $75k on April 9, Bitcoin has been on a strong upward trend, driven by spot market activity. Along the way, there have been periods of sideways trading, where prices stabilize before moving higher.

根據GlassNode的說法，自4月9日跌至7.5萬美元以來，比特幣一直處於強勁的向上趨勢，這是由於現貨市場活動的驅動。一路走來，側向交易期間，價格在更高之前穩定。

This "stair-step" pattern is visible in the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap, which shows clusters of Bitcoin being bought at similar price levels over the past three months.

在成本基礎分佈（CBD）熱圖中可見這種“樓梯步驟”模式，該圖顯示了過去三個月以相似價格購買的比特幣集群。

These accumulation phases happened before each upward move, leading to the most recent surge to $104k.

這些積累階段發生在每個向上移動之前，導致最近的激增至$ 104K。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

Over the past 30 days, a key accumulation zone has formed between $93k and $95k. This range matches the cost basis of short-term holders—investors who joined the market in the last 155 days.

在過去的30天中，一個關鍵的積累區已成立在$ 93K到$ 95K之間。該系列與短期持有人的成本基礎相匹配 - 在過去155天內加入市場的投資者。

Because of this, this zone is expected to serve as strong support if the market experiences a short-term dip, as it’s a price range where investors are likely to find value and buy again.

因此，如果市場經歷短期下降，則預計該區域將作為強大的支持，因為這是投資者可能會找到價值和再次購買的價格範圍。

Approaching The Highs

接近高點

Bitcoin is now trading just below its all-time high of $109k, and excitement is building in the market. A great way to track this shift in sentiment is through the Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio, which shows how active investors are feeling.

現在，比特幣的交易價格略低於其歷史最高售價10.9萬美元，而興奮正在市場上。跟踪這種情感轉變的一種好方法是通過短期持有人（STH）的損益率供應，這表明投資者的感受。

This metric was especially useful during the April 7 correction, when it dropped to 0.03, meaning almost all short-term holders were at a loss. This happened as Bitcoin hit its $76k low. Since then, the ratio has jumped above 9.0, showing that over 90% of short-term holders are now in profit.

該指標在4月7日的校正中特別有用，當時它降至0.03，這意味著幾乎所有短期持有人都虧損。這發生在比特幣達到其76,000美元的低價時。從那時起，該比率躍升至9.0以上，表明超過90％的短期持有人現在正在獲利。

High values like this often signal riskier market conditions, as investors may start taking profits. While this can last for a while, it often leads to profit-taking or a local price peak if new demand slows down.

這樣的高價值通常表明風險更大的市場狀況，因為投資者可能會開始利潤。儘管這可以持續一段時間，但如果新需求減慢，它通常會導致獲利或當地價格峰值。

As long as the ratio stays well above 1.0, the bullish trend is likely to continue. But if it falls below 1.0 for an extended period, it could indicate weakening market strength and a potential trend reversal.

只要該比率保持在1.0以上，看漲趨勢就可能會持續下去。但是，如果長期降至1.0以下，則可能表明市場實力降低和潛在的趨勢逆轉。

Source: Glassnode

來源：玻璃節

Key Takeaways from Glassnodes Data

玻璃節數據的關鍵要點

Bitcoin’s climb back toward its all-time highs has been driven mainly by spot market activity, supported by strong buying on-chain and steady inflows off-chain. Most of the demand is coming from spot ETFs and major exchanges like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN). A key support zone has formed around $95k, and with less selling pressure, the uptrend looks solid.

比特幣的攀登朝著歷史最高點的攀登主要是由現貨市場活動驅動的，這是由強勁購買的鍊鍊和穩定的流入鏈的支持。大多數需求來自現貨ETF和Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）等主要交易所。關鍵支撐區的形成約為95,000美元，而且銷售壓力較小，上升趨勢看起來穩定。

Meanwhile, the derivatives markets are lagging behind. Open interest and funding rates haven’t fully caught up with the spot market’s momentum. In the options market, traders seem cautiously optimistic, and there’s little sign of excessive long positions in the futures market right now.

同時，衍生品市場落後。開放利息和融資率尚未完全滿足現貨市場的勢頭。在期權市場中，交易者似乎謹慎樂觀，現在幾乎沒有期貨市場中長期職位的跡象。

Looking at crypto markets as a whole, there has been an interesting technical breakout on XRP.

從整體上看，XRP上有一個有趣的技術突破。

Ripple (XRP) Breakout? Can Bulls Push Price to Previous Highs?

波紋（XRP）突破？公牛可以將價格推向以前的高點嗎？

Looking at Ripple whose popularity continues to grow and there are two key macroeconomic factors supporting its rise. Potential ETF approvals and the new US administration’s approach to Crypto which has further eased any SEC issues.

查看其受歡迎程度不斷增長的漣漪，並且有兩個主要的宏觀經濟因素支持其上升。潛在的ETF批准和新的美國政府對加密的方法，這進一步緩解了SEC問題。

On Polymarket, traders now believe there’s a 79% chance that spot ETFs for XRP will get approved.

在Polymarket上，交易者現在認為，XRP的現場ETF的機會有79％。

Meanwhile, Ripple has faced setbacks from SEC disputes in recent years. However, with the SEC case now settled, Ripple is free to move forward with its plans, which could include a potential IPO.

同時，Ripple近年來面臨SEC糾紛的挫折。但是，隨著SEC案件的解決，Ripple可以自由推進其計劃，其中可能包括潛在的IPO。

Looking at XRP/USD from a technical standpoint, we had a triangle pattern in play which has been broken.

從技術的角度來看XRP/USD，我們在遊戲中有一個三角形模式，但已被打破。

We have now seen a retest of the trendline following two successive days of bearish price action.

在連續兩天的看跌價格行動之後，我們已經看到了趨勢線的重新測試。

A triangle pattern break could lead to a significant upside move. For now though price needs to hold above the swing low at 2.30 for the bullish momentum to remain in play.

三角模式斷裂可能會導致重大上行移動。目前，價格需要保持低於2.30的搖擺，以使看漲的勢頭繼續發揮作用。

Ripple (XRP/USD) Daily Chart, May 16, 2025

Ripple（XRP/USD）每日圖表，2025年5月16日

Source: TradingView.com

資料來源：TradingView.com

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