比特币（BTC）价格合并了100000美元以上，公牛可以维持上升趋势吗？

自5月10日（星期六）以来，比特币价格已经进入了另一个合并时期，但公牛已经能够将价格保持在关键的100000大关之上。

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have entered another period of consolidation since Saturday May 10 but bulls have been able to keep the price above the key psychological 100000 mark.

自5月10日（星期六）以来，比特币（BTC）价格已经进入了另一个合并时期，但公牛已经能够将价格保持在关键的100000大关之上。

Is the rally running out of steam or is more upside possible?

拉力赛是否耗尽蒸汽，还是更高的上行空间？

Firstly we saw a similar period of consolidation around the 95000 handle before price exploded around $10,000 in a three-day span. This move higher followed about 11 days of consolidation. Markets usually see a more aggressive breakout the longer an asset consolidates, the question is will bulls or bears prevail?

首先，我们在95000把手附近看到了类似的合并时期，在价格在三天的时间内爆炸了约10,000美元。此移动更高，随后大约11天的合并。市场通常会看到越来越多的积极分解，资产巩固的时间越长，问题是公牛或熊会占上风吗？

There are always conflicting views and at times signs which support both a bullish and bearish scenario. Let us take a look at what some of those factors might be moving forward.

总会有矛盾的观点，有时有时会支持看涨和看跌的情况。让我们看看其中一些因素可能会向前发展。

According to Glassnode, since hitting a low of $75k on April 9, Bitcoin has been on a strong upward trend, driven by spot market activity. Along the way, there have been periods of sideways trading, where prices stabilize before moving higher.

根据GlassNode的说法，自4月9日跌至7.5万美元以来，比特币一直处于强劲的向上趋势，这是由于现货市场活动的驱动。一路走来，侧向交易期间，价格在更高之前稳定。

This "stair-step" pattern is visible in the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap, which shows clusters of Bitcoin being bought at similar price levels over the past three months.

在成本基础分布（CBD）热图中可见这种“楼梯步骤”模式，该图显示了过去三个月以相似价格购买的比特币集群。

These accumulation phases happened before each upward move, leading to the most recent surge to $104k.

这些积累阶段发生在每个向上移动之前，导致最近的激增至$ 104K。

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

Over the past 30 days, a key accumulation zone has formed between $93k and $95k. This range matches the cost basis of short-term holders—investors who joined the market in the last 155 days.

在过去的30天中，一个关键的积累区已成立在$ 93K到$ 95K之间。该系列与短期持有人的成本基础相匹配 - 在过去155天内加入市场的投资者。

Because of this, this zone is expected to serve as strong support if the market experiences a short-term dip, as it’s a price range where investors are likely to find value and buy again.

因此，如果市场经历短期下降，则预计该区域将作为强大的支持，因为这是投资者可能会找到价值和再次购买的价格范围。

Approaching The Highs

接近高点

Bitcoin is now trading just below its all-time high of $109k, and excitement is building in the market. A great way to track this shift in sentiment is through the Short-Term Holder (STH) Supply in Profit/Loss Ratio, which shows how active investors are feeling.

现在，比特币的交易价格略低于其历史最高售价10.9万美元，而兴奋正在市场上。跟踪这种情感转变的一种好方法是通过短期持有人（STH）的损益率供应，这表明投资者的感受。

This metric was especially useful during the April 7 correction, when it dropped to 0.03, meaning almost all short-term holders were at a loss. This happened as Bitcoin hit its $76k low. Since then, the ratio has jumped above 9.0, showing that over 90% of short-term holders are now in profit.

该指标在4月7日的校正中特别有用，当时它降至0.03，这意味着几乎所有短期持有人都亏损。这发生在比特币达到其76,000美元的低价时。从那时起，该比率跃升至9.0以上，表明超过90％的短期持有人现在正在获利。

High values like this often signal riskier market conditions, as investors may start taking profits. While this can last for a while, it often leads to profit-taking or a local price peak if new demand slows down.

这样的高价值通常表明风险更大的市场状况，因为投资者可能会开始利润。尽管这可以持续一段时间，但如果新需求减慢，它通常会导致获利或当地价格峰值。

As long as the ratio stays well above 1.0, the bullish trend is likely to continue. But if it falls below 1.0 for an extended period, it could indicate weakening market strength and a potential trend reversal.

只要该比率保持在1.0以上，看涨趋势就可能会持续下去。但是，如果长期降至1.0以下，则可能表明市场实力降低和潜在的趋势逆转。

Source: Glassnode

来源：玻璃节

Key Takeaways from Glassnodes Data

玻璃节数据的关键要点

Bitcoin’s climb back toward its all-time highs has been driven mainly by spot market activity, supported by strong buying on-chain and steady inflows off-chain. Most of the demand is coming from spot ETFs and major exchanges like Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN). A key support zone has formed around $95k, and with less selling pressure, the uptrend looks solid.

比特币的攀登朝着历史最高点的攀登主要是由现货市场活动驱动的，这是由强劲购买的链链和稳定的流入链的支持。大多数需求来自现货ETF和Coinbase（NASDAQ：COIN）等主要交易所。关键支撑区的形成约为95,000美元，而且销售压力较小，上升趋势看起来稳定。

Meanwhile, the derivatives markets are lagging behind. Open interest and funding rates haven’t fully caught up with the spot market’s momentum. In the options market, traders seem cautiously optimistic, and there’s little sign of excessive long positions in the futures market right now.

同时，衍生品市场落后。开放利息和融资率尚未完全满足现货市场的势头。在期权市场中，交易者似乎谨慎乐观，现在几乎没有期货市场中长期职位的迹象。

Looking at crypto markets as a whole, there has been an interesting technical breakout on XRP.

从整体上看，XRP上有一个有趣的技术突破。

Ripple (XRP) Breakout? Can Bulls Push Price to Previous Highs?

波纹（XRP）突破？公牛可以将价格推向以前的高点吗？

Looking at Ripple whose popularity continues to grow and there are two key macroeconomic factors supporting its rise. Potential ETF approvals and the new US administration’s approach to Crypto which has further eased any SEC issues.

查看其受欢迎程度不断增长的涟漪，并且有两个主要的宏观经济因素支持其上升。潜在的ETF批准和新的美国政府对加密的方法，这进一步缓解了SEC问题。

On Polymarket, traders now believe there’s a 79% chance that spot ETFs for XRP will get approved.

在Polymarket上，交易者现在认为，XRP的现场ETF的机会有79％。

Meanwhile, Ripple has faced setbacks from SEC disputes in recent years. However, with the SEC case now settled, Ripple is free to move forward with its plans, which could include a potential IPO.

同时，Ripple近年来面临SEC纠纷的挫折。但是，随着SEC案件的解决，Ripple可以自由推进其计划，其中可能包括潜在的IPO。

Looking at XRP/USD from a technical standpoint, we had a triangle pattern in play which has been broken.

从技术的角度来看XRP/USD，我们在游戏中有一个三角形模式，但已被打破。

We have now seen a retest of the trendline following two successive days of bearish price action.

在连续两天的看跌价格行动之后，我们已经看到了趋势线的重新测试。

A triangle pattern break could lead to a significant upside move. For now though price needs to hold above the swing low at 2.30 for the bullish momentum to remain in play.

三角模式断裂可能会导致重大上行移动。目前，价格需要保持低于2.30的摇摆，以使看涨的势头继续发挥作用。

Ripple (XRP/USD) Daily Chart, May 16, 2025

Ripple（XRP/USD）每日图表，2025年5月16日

Source: TradingView.com

资料来源：TradingView.com

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