比特幣（BTC）價格目標：2030預測

本文中的價格目標依賴於關於可尋址市場（TAM）和下面討論的滲透率的假設。

In ARK’s Big Ideas 2025 report, we updated our bitcoin price targets for 2030, projecting bear, base, and bull cases of ~300,000, ~710,000, and ~1.5 million, respectively, as shown below.

在ARK的《 2025年大創意》中，我們更新了2030年的比特幣價格目標，預計熊，基本和牛案例分別為300,000，〜710,000，約150萬，如下所示。

Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2025. This ARK analysis is based on a range of external sources as of December 31, 2024, which may be provided upon request. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security or cryptocurrency.

資料來源：ARK Investment Management LLC，2025年。該方舟分析基於截至2024年12月31日的一系列外部來源，可以根據要求提供。僅出於信息目的，不應被視為投資建議或建議購買，出售或持有任何特定安全性或加密貨幣的建議。

Our price targets are the sum of TAM (Total Addressable Market) contributions at the end of 2030, based on the following formula:

我們的價格目標是根據以下公式在2030年底的TAM（總可尋址市場）捐款的總和：

Our supply estimate is based on bitcoin’s deterministic issuance schedule, which will approach ~20.5 million units by 2030. Each variable contributes to the price target as follows:

我們的供應估算基於比特幣的確定性發行時間表，到2030年，該計劃將接近約2050萬個單位。每個變量都會提高目標價格：如下：

Anticipated contributors to capital accrual (primary):

預期資本應計（主要）的貢獻者：

Anticipated contributors to capital accrual (secondary):

預期資本應計（中學）的貢獻者：

Excluding digital gold, which our model penalizes because it is the most direct, zero-sum competitor to bitcoin, we assume conservatively that the TAM of the contributors listed above (specifically 1, 3, 4, and 5) grows at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% over the next six years. For the sixth contributor—bitcoin’s on-chain financial services—we assume a 6-year CAGR ranging from 20% to 60%, relative to the value accrued as of year-end 2024, as follows:

除了我們的模型是對比特幣的最直接，零和競爭對手，我們對數字黃金進行了懲罰，我們保守地認為，上面列出的貢獻者的TAM（尤其是1、3、4和5）在未來六年中以3％的複合年度增長率（CAGR）增長。對於第六貢獻者（Bitcoin的鏈上金融服務），我們假設年增長率從20％到60％，相對於截至2024年年底的價值，如下：

Finally, we delineate the TAM and penetration rate contributions to the bear, base, and bull price targets, respectively, as follows:

最後，我們分別描述了TAM的TAM和滲透率貢獻，分別為熊，基礎和牛目標目標，如下所示：

As shown in the chart above, digital gold contributes the most to our bear and base cases, while institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case. Interestingly, nation-state treasuries, corporate treasuries, and Bitcoin’s decentralized financial services contribute relatively little in each case.

如上圖所示，數字黃金對我們的熊和基本案件做出了最大的貢獻，而機構投資對我們的牛案貢獻了最大的貢獻。有趣的是，在每種情況下，民族國家的國債，公司國庫和比特幣的分散金融服務都相對較小。

In the tables below, we detail our forecasted relative contributions of the six sources of capital accrual to the bear, base, and bull cases, respectively.

在下面的表中，我們分別詳細介紹了我們對熊，基礎和公牛案件的六個資本應計的相對貢獻。

1. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Institutional Investment

1。資本應計的潛在貢獻者：機構投資

According to State Street, The Global Market Portfolio2 is defined as:

根據州街的說法，全球市場投資組合定義為：

> All investable capital assets corresponding to its market value divided by the sum of the market values of all assets. As the sum of all holdings that result from the collective decisions of investors and issuers, as well as suppliers and demanders of capital, the Global Market Portfolio can be seen as a de facto proxy for the investable opportunity set available to

>所有與其市場價值相對應的可投資資本資產除以所有資產的市場價值之和。由於投資者和發行人的集體決策以及資本的供應商和需求的所有持股總額，全球市場投資組合可以看作是可用於可用於投資的機會的事實上的代理

> all investors globally.

>全球所有投資者。

As of 2024, the global portfolio’s TAM, excluding gold’s 3.6% share, is ~169 trillion. Applying an assumed 3% CAGR results in a value of ~200 trillion by 2030.

截至2024年，全球投資組合的TAM（不包括黃金的3.6％份額）約為169萬億。到2030年，應用假定的3％CAGR會導致〜200萬億。

We then assume 1% and 2.5% penetration rates for the bear and base cases, respectively, both of which are lower than gold’s 3.6% share today. As a result, the bear and base cases represent conservative views on bitcoin’s adoption. In the more aggressive bull case, we assume that bitcoin penetration hits 6.5%, nearly double gold’s current share.

然後，我們分別假定熊和基本病例的滲透率為1％和2.5％，這兩者都低於當今黃金的3.6％份額。結果，熊和基本案件代表了對比特幣採用的保守觀點。在更具侵略性的公牛案中，我們認為比特幣滲透率達到6.5％，幾乎是金黃色目前的份額。

2. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Digital Gold

2。資本應計的潛在貢獻者：數字黃金

The contribution of digital gold assumes a TAM relative to gold’s current market capitalization. Given our aggressive penetration rate, we penalize gold’s expected TAM in 2030 by assuming no growth. In our view, bitcoin as digital gold is an appealing narrative and will drive penetration.

數字黃金的貢獻相對於黃金當前的市值而言是TAM。鑑於我們的積極滲透率，我們假設沒有增長來對Gold在2030年的預期TAM處罰。我們認為，比特幣作為數字黃金是一種吸引人的敘述，將推動穿透。

3. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Emerging Market Safe Haven

3。資本應計的潛在貢獻者：新興市場避風港

The Emerging Market Safe Haven TAM is based on the monetary base of all developing nations—also known as “non-advanced” economies according to the IMF/CIA definition.4 In our view, this bitcoin use case has the greatest potential for capital accrual. In addition to its store-of-value characteristics, bitcoin’s low barriers to entry provide individuals with internet connections in emerging markets access to an investment alternative that may provide capital appreciation over time—as opposed to defensive allocations like the US dollar—to preserve purchasing power and avoid the devaluations of their own national currencies.

新興市場的避風港TAM基於所有發展中國家的貨幣基礎，也根據國際貨幣基金組織/CIA定義稱為“非加工”經濟體。 4在我們看來，該比特幣用例具有最大的資本應計潛力。除了其價值儲存特性外，比特幣的低障礙入境障礙還為個人提供了在新興市場的互聯網連接，可以訪問一種投資替代方案，該替代方案可能會隨著時間的流逝而提供資本增值（與美元（如美元）相反，與美元分配相反，可以保留購買力並避免自己的國民貨幣貶值。

4. Potential Contributor To Capital Accrual: Nation-State Treasuries

4。資本應計的潛在貢獻者：民族國家國庫

While El Salvador and Bhutan currently lead the world in nation-state bitcoin adoption, advocates for bitcoin strategic reserves are growing—not least President Trump, who, on March 6, issued an executive order5 to establish a reserve in the United States. Although our bear and base case assumptions are conservative, we believe that the US could bolster the justification for the 7%

儘管埃爾·薩爾瓦多（El Salvador）和不丹（Bhutan）目前在採用民族國家的比特幣採用全球領導著全球，但比特幣戰略儲備金的擁護者正在增長，而不是特朗普總統在3月6日發布了一項行政命令5，以在美國建立儲備金。儘管我們的熊和基本案例假設是保守的，但我們認為美國可以加強7％的理由